From a trader whose predictions I’ve liked, Nadeem Walayat:
“U.S. Dollar Forecast 2009
TREND ANALYSIS – The correction following the November peak was more severe than expected this implies a weakness, however the US Dollar did hold above the previous low of 75 before resuming the up trend. Immediate resistance lies at 88, given the violence of the correction this implies choppy volatile trading in the region of between 80 and 90, this is inline with the conclusion of October 2008 with regards trend expectations for 2009.
PRICE TARGETS – The upside price target for USD remains at 90 and then 92. The USD has significant resistance above USD 92 and therefore suggests the USD will find it tough to sustain a breakout above USD 93. This suggests a trading range with an upward bias. The key here is for the USD to continue making higher lows, with the last low being 77.7.
MACD – The MACD was extremely oversold and has helped contribute to the U.S. Dollar turnaround, how-ever the MACD has some way to go before it reaches what could be termed as an overbought state and therefore implies more immediate term U.S. Dollar strength.
SEASONAL TREND – The USD Rally into January is inline with the seasonal tendency, which suggests a corrective February.
ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY – Octobers elliott wave analysis proved accurate, given the power of the corrective wave, this suggests a more complex sideways elliott wave pattern during 2009 rather than a breakout higher.