From Reuters:
“Capital flight climbed during the second quarter, with net outflows of $4.279 billion from the non-financial private sector.
INDEC also reported that the August trade surplus narrowed by 48 percent from the same month a year ago to $1.16 billion, below market expectations [nN18267672].Six analysts polled by Reuters gave a median forecast for a surplus of $1.53 billion with estimates ranging from $1.2 billion to $1.90 billion.
Imports fell by 37 percent during the month of August to $3.25 billion, while exports dropped by an even bigger 40 percent to $4.40 billion due to lower prices and reduced volumes — particularly by the drought-hit farming industry.”
My Comment:
Mind you, even these figures are considered “upwardly mobile” (that is, massaged upward) by private analysts. The government has been habitually manipulating economic data (over at least the last two years), exaggerating growth and understating inflation, in order to pay lower interest rates on bonds. Previous figures for the current account surplus (from Q2 2008) have been revised three times, which gives you an idea about the unreliability of official statistics.
Meanwhile, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal real estate transactions in Buenos Aires in July were down almost 40% from a year ago, and down nearly 2% from June, 2009. Those are government figures too, so it’s likely that sales have slowed even more.
Adding to the hit in global trade (especially the decline in commodity prices) was a lengthy drought, the worst in 50 years, that devastated the farming sector, spilling over also into parts of Uruguay and Paraguay.
Here’s a NY Times piece from earlier in the year (February) on some of the fall-out:
“A separate problem is that the country’s supply of dollars is falling as demands increase and capital flight continues, said Daniel Kerner, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a risk consulting firm. That could add pressure on the government to tap Central Bank reserves or to severely devalue its exchange rate. Last year, Argentines pulled out about $25 billion from the country, Mr. Kerner said.
Though most economists say they believe the government can squeak by and avoid another crippling default on its debts, sidestepping a major devaluation of the currency, the peso, will be a more delicate dance.
For now, the Kirchner government appears committed to gradually devaluing the peso to avoid stoking a widespread panic.
With the cash that the government seized from private pension funds and other instruments, it can shave down a $10 billion financing gap this year to a more manageable $2 billion, said Esteban Medrano, an economic adviser at LatinSource, a consulting firm. .”
Apparently, one farmer lost 106 cattles in three hours, the investment and work of five years.
Not what I would call a confidence-builder..
Weapon of Mass Destruction of third and non-third world countries is dollar along with IMF, WB, EBRD and the like institutions which sucking the blood and tissue from people around the world.
People around the world will never get own freedom, self sufficiency, normal society and real democracy without getting rid of dictate and financial terrorism which coming from abovementioned institutions.
Yes –
if the US is entitled to default on its debt, so should all the other countries this has been done to, be entitled to default..going back for decades and the banks will owe those countries big time as well..
Otherwise, if only the US gets to default whereas everyone else had to pay off (while being much poorer and much less culpable because the banks don’t belong to their countries) then it’s unjust
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In the past, I read all of http://ferfal.blogspot.com/ I thought he wasn’t going to keep updating so I didn’t go back until you mentioned him.
It’s amazing what he has on there. And yes, now I want body armor. His latest about a Global Bartering Network is very interesting and I’m surprised it’s not being heavily discussed on mises.org as it fits in nicely with a recent article titled, How Much Money Do We Need? by George F. Smith.
The video ferfal has about this network is very interesting, I’d like to start one up here, but I think the state would smash it for failure to license and pay tax, so I think it’s something that can only be done once the state has collapsed or in, “free’er” countries.
Here is the video, it may not work and you may have to go to ferfal’s to watch it, if you haven‘t already.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDKeQ4IACJ4
Clark – that sounds like a great idea..
maybe you could create one off shore (so it’s not subject to US law).
It’s more likely to take off in the US because there are so many more channels and a big market..
I mean, antiques, thrift stores, second hand goods, exchanges, are all flourishing already – more so than in other places.
I’m sorry if my previous comments sounded harsh – I’m argumentative (professional hazard of academics) by training and inclination..
don’t take it personally
I’m not. Almost did. I said you were fiesty, and you are. It’s a good quality, especially in a word warrior. Kind of reminded me of the woman in the John Wayne movie, Mclintock – fiery, stands her ground, used to word sparring (and probably wrestling) with strong willed men in a mans world that puts down women, especially those who don’t submit meekly and accept a lower social/mental status, or give in even though they are correct.
You’re like the Elie May of the internet. [The woman from The Beverly Hillbillies TV show. She would wrestle with guys and win, but she was stupid, so maybe that’s not a good example.]
That’s also why I’m glad you and Karen DeCoster didn’t mix it up awhile back, that wouldn’t have been pretty. She is a lot like you and I think women (or men) with fiesty strong willed types of personalities don’t get along well together very often.
One person I noticed mentioned something about your tone, I figured it was more from determination, from not giving up on pulling people onto the boat, after freeing them from their attics, for ten hours straight rather than from anything else.
The many flea markets, auction companies/buildings and currently trendy farmers markets crowds are ripe for this barter deal. How would off shore work? Or do you mean, in another country?
I’m only strong willed on certain things..and I don’t take kindly to being manipulated – it’s the one thing I detest in a human being.
On other things, I don’t care enough..
Yes..form an LLC that’s off shore or not subject to US law. I don’t know how that would work but you could explore that.
Karen’s persona is very different from mine. I sometimes sound sharper than I mean to be. I come from an academic family and we tend to spend time demolishing each others’ arguments. It’s all in good spirit but not for the faint of heart. My older brother and I once spent three hours debating the exact meaning of the word “thali” in a restaurant in India…until all our companions got up and left and the waiters started clicking their tongues.
I like a good intellectual battle – .and then gracefully shaking hands and reversing sides..that’s how debates should be..
That’s kind of funny – the arguing for three hours over dinner.
Too many times an argument leads to, “Hmp! He disagrees with me, so I will never be friendly with, or talk to that person again!” or to actual exchanges of fists. Or even worse, the person you’re arguing with just closes their minds to any new information.
What is it that is different between the people like that and the people who shake hands in the end? Is that why it seems so easy for leaders to lead/manipulate peoples into supporting war or accepting their unsupported facts? Is this why the people of Argentina, the US and many other countires accept or support what their leaders are doing?
And, while you’re correct that the two of you are different …so very different, but at the same time, you’re both so very similar.
I had a relationship like that with my old boss, who was probably the brightest engineer Ive ever known. I like to design using a blank sheet of paper…analyze the issues and come up with a solution without regard to whatever is existing. This often leads to “radical” approaches. So I’d take it to Dave. Dave loves to debate, and he loves to shoot my ideas down. So we’d hash it over, usually in multiple sessions. Often he’d barge into my office because he had a fresh rebuttal or an idea of his own (which I enjoyed shooting down as well).
But no egos were involved, no hurt feelings or anger. The result of that interchange was that the eventual product was superior to anything either of us would have come up with on our own.