My position is that the dollar bear is being over-hyped (despite the bad fundamentals) and manipulated, and as a consequence, I’ve been a dollar contrarian. I still kick myself for selling my initial gold long position way back in 2006 (I bought some in 2004) and then never regaining it because I was still convinced it would go lower. It did, but I wasn’t paying attention when it did. In trading, you can’t go long stretches doing other things and not watching the prices. The bullion banks both short and go long gold, in ways calculated to pick the pockets of the naive. Here’s a good analysis by Stewart Thomson at 321gold:

“The key point is that the US dollar bear market is now entering the stage of a publicly recognized and PROMOTED bear market. As of right NOW, you will start to hear from business owner investor acquaintances about the US dollar bear market. These idiots will parrot the Bloomberg stories, nodding their heads up and down, completely ignoring the fact that the dollar is down about 35% from the highs set about 7 yrs ago. NOW they show up and notice there’s a problem with the US dollar? We are in the later, most horrific stage of the US dollar bear market. The stage where the banksters begin buying USD with their infinitely deep pockets, while the institutions and public bail in terror and accelerate their doomed-to-fail leveraged carry trade scheme. Soon the banksters will be selling OTC derivatives on the US buck shorts, collecting, fees and interest before finally burning the thing into the ground via a new gold standard that will end the US dollar short party like a tomato hitting a cement wall.

15. It’s very important to stay focused on what the charts are indicating and buying gold weakness and selling gold strength only. This is the largest bankster play ever, as they load up on the US dollars sold by the bustout dollar bag holders worldwide who follow the bankster propaganda that the USD is “finished for the long term.”

16. We even have the head of the World Bank calling the USD a sell now, 7 years after the top. Then he says, “by the way, I’ve bankrupted the entire world bank, but I know the US Dollar is now in a bear market, 7 years after the top.” Gee, I wonder why his bank is worthless. He says what he’s paid to say to create WORLDWIDE panic and hysteria concerning the USD. The banksters are ready for the next stage of profit booking on their giant gold long positions as part of their plan to take over the major holdings of the US dollar.

17. They are looking to create fear in the US dollar market, and succeeding tremendously in terms of time and in terms of volume of fear. All it takes is for a tiny portion of the US dollars to make their way towards the gold market, a tiny portion of allocation by the institutions, and you have immediate mindblowing volatility in the gold market. There are hundreds of institutional traders handling vastly more money than that held by all the GCMs. If you are shorting gold, you must be prepared to handle price moves of $100, even $200 during a single day’s trading.

18. My strongest suggestion if you ARE short gold, is that you move towards trades drastically smaller than you are trading now. Few investors alive today understand what is coming in the gold market. The gold community has called almost every single top and bottom wrong. There’s one thing not a single person in the gold community has called wrong: The Big Picture. That makes you smarter in many ways that 99% of the world’s largest money managers. Take your credit. It is due.

19. Once the banksters have pointed terrified institutions towards gold, they will then seek to alternate bullish and bearish news to create massive whipsaw action. The banksters’ “grand slam” will be announcing that the “recovery” was in fact a warm-up act for their Trillion Dollar OTCD Main Act. “OTCD” being Over-The-Counter Derivatives. Once the economy is announced to be imploding via a truckload of new multi trillion dollar OTCD failures, the US Dollar bear market will not reverse. It will accelerate at hyperspeed. Gold’s rise will create terror amongst institutional investors that financial Armageddon is upon them. They understand full well what happens to gold if they all charge in at the same time. Many will turn to gold stocks to appear less panicked than they are.

20. There will be no “gold rush” for the public. They will be too busy screaming for President Obama to print more money to save them from the financial black hole they are in. In the meantime, it is more important that you continue to watch the charts for REAL overbought and oversold conditions. Don’t tell yourself excuses to buy or sell gold when the clear picture on the charts is not what you are pretending it is, what you want it to be.

21. I’ve heard a million reasons from many investors WHY gold will go up or down for the next leg. Who cares. Place your buys and sells in response to whether it IS up or down. All else will fail you….”