Reader Barry responded to my previous post, “The Great Depression, American Style,” (which tried to give another another view of the current economic downturn), by sending me a link to a piece by Jim Quinn, called “The Great Deleveraging Lie,” which suggests – as my piece does -that people really aren’t cutting back to the bone and paying down debt. Quinn writes the libertarian blog, The Burning Platform
“During the Great Depression of the 1930’s Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP peaked at 260% of GDP. As of today, it stands at 360% of GDP.The Federal Government is adding $4 billion per day to the National Debt. GDP is stagnant and will likely not grow for the next year. The storyline about corporate America being flush with cash is another lie. Corporations have ADDED $482 billion of debt since 2007. Corporate America has the largest amount of debt on their books in history at $7.2 trillion.
Now we get to the Big Lie about frugal consumers paying off debts, cutting up those credit cards, and eating Raman noodles 5 nights per week. Household and non-profit debt, which includes mortgages, credit card debt, auto loans, home equity loans, and student loans peaked at $13.8 trillion in 2008. After two years of supposed deleveraging, frugality and mass austerity, the balance is $13.5 trillion. Consumers have buckled down and have paid off 2.2% of their debts, it seems. Not exactly going cold turkey, but it is a start.
But wait. Consumer debt outstanding is $300 billion lower. If you hadn’t noticed, the banks in the United States have been taking a few losses on their loans over the last couple years. A simple search of the Federal Reserve website reveals that banks have charged off 5.66% of all their loans in the last two years. The charge-off rate in the 2nd quarter of 2010 was 6.66%. To verify for yourself go to the Federal Reserve website.
So, let’s get down to the nitty-gritty. If consumer debt was $13.8 trillion at the end of 2008 and the banks have since written off 5.66% of that debt, total write-offs were $800 billion. If total consumer debt now sits at $13.5 trillion, then consumers have actually taken on $500 billion of additional debt since the end of 2008. The consumer hasn’t cut back at all. They are still spending and borrowing. It is beyond my comprehension that no one on CNBC or in the other mainstream media can do simple math to figure out that the deleveraging story is just a Big Lie.
The truth is that the debt has simply been shifted from criminal Wall Street Banks to the American taxpayer. These consumer debts were created in a private transaction between individuals and these banks. When the loans went bad, the consumers should have lost their home, car, etc., and their credit rating should have been ruined, keeping them out of the credit market for a number of years. If the banks that made these bad loans made too many, they should have failed and had their assets liquidated in bankruptcy. Instead, the Federal Government has inserted the American taxpayer into the equation by using our tax dollars to prop up insolvent Wall Street banks and allowing screw-ups who took on too much debt to live in houses over two years without making a mortgage payment.”