Tim Wise analyzes and explains the flaws in the use of statistics on crimes by racialists who argue that the extent of black-on-white crime indicates a “race war” by blacks against the majority population.
[Lila: Note, while his analysis makes many good points, Wise seems to be a grand-stander on racial issues. A Tuckerian humanitarian, maybe?]
Here are some of Wise’s main points:
1. Blacks make up a smaller part of the population than whites, so the chances of a black person encountering a white person are much higher than the reverse. Thus, whites would be more likely to be victimized by black offenders than the other way around.
2. There are proportionately more crimes of any sort committed by blacks than by whites, so the likelihood of more inter-racial crime being committed by them is also higher.
3. A large number of the whites being victimized by blacks are Hispanics who live in proximity with them, so that whites who don’t live near blacks are even less likely to be the targets of black perpetrators than the numbers might suggest.
4. The disproportion in inter-racial crime is most evident in robbery, which suggests that the motivation for the crimes is pecuniary, not racial.
5. A small proportion of offenders (7%) commit most offenses (70%), meaning that the actual number of inter-racial offenders in either group, black or white, is much smaller than it would seem at first glance. Thus, the evidence of racial targeting becomes even less meaningful.
Wise writes:
“Even if we assumed a random and perfectly mixed white and black population — such that whites and blacks encountered each other at rates relative to their population percentages — the much higher black homicide offending rates alone would predict that there should be 6.7 times more B-W murders than W-B murders. But in fact, as we saw, there were only about twice as many B-W murders as W-B murders. And when we consider the above-mentioned data on relative rates of interracial encounter, the numbers are even more striking. Even if we assume that 5 percent of all persons encountered by whites are black (an increase of 2/3 from prior and clearly documented data), and that only 63 percent of persons encountered by blacks are white (an increase of only 10 percent in the same period), we would expect 12 times more B-W homicides than W-B homicides in a given year. In a community of 3 million people, for instance, in which whites outnumbered blacks 6.7 to 1 (as is the case in the real world) there would be roughly 2,610,000 whites and 390,000 blacks. If 0.02 percent of blacks committed a murder, this would mean that we could expect 78 black homicides that year, and 63 percent of these (or 49 homicides in all) would involve white victims. If 0.003 percent of whites committed a murder that year, this would predict a similar number, roughly 78 murders committed by whites, of which only 4 would involve black victims. In other words, given relative rates of homicide offending along with relative rates of interracial encounter, we could expect 12.25 times more B-W homicides than W-B homicides in any given year. But in fact, in 2010, B-W homicide was only twice as numerically prevalent as the opposite. In other words, B-W homicide is roughly 1/6 as common as random chance would predict.
And given the relative population percentages of whites and blacks, blacks are actually more likely to be interracially murdered by a white person than vice-versa. After all, as for homicides where the race of the offender is known, 447 B-W murders as a share of the white community is 2/10,000ths of 1 percent (0.0002) of all whites killed by blacks, which is 1 in every 500,000 white people who will be killed by a black person in a given year; meanwhile, 218 W-B homicides as a share of the black community is 5.5/10,000ths of 1 percent (0.00055). So although interracial homicide is incredibly rare in either direction, any given black person is more than 2.75 times as likely as any given white person to be interracially murdered, with roughly 1 in every 180,000 black persons being killed by a white person in a given year.”
A criticism of part of Tim Wise’s use of the DOJ statistics can be found in this piece at “Feminist Critics”:
“The problem for Wise is that according to the DoJ figures, there are nearly three times as many black on white crimes of violence as there are white on black, from which it follows that, in any encounter between blacks and whites, the black is nearly three times as likely to victimise the white, than the white is to victimise the black. 31% of this excess can be explained by the higher overall crime rate for blacks. For the interracial victimisation rate to be higher than this, at least one (and possibly all three) of the following statements must be true:
- Whites victimise blacks less often than chance would suggest.
- Blacks victimise whites more often than chance would suggest
- Blacks have a much higher per encounter offending rate than whites. To put it another way, it’s much more dangerous to meet a black than it is to meet a white.
No amount of playing around with encounter rates can alter the fact that at least one of these must be true. If, as Wise argues, 1 and 2 are false, then 3 must be true, a proposition which is as likely to be as unpalatable to him as it is agreeable to the racists.
And at Breitbart.com, here is a criticism of Tim Wise, for handing progressives the ammunition that lets them win every argument with conservatives:
“In fact, what Wise has done is taken a vicious subjective prejudice that ascribes the worst motives possible–racism–to his political opponents and declared it to be an accurate diagnosis of everything that motivates them.
This tactic allows progressives to drape themselves in the mantle of a “Hero” who is fighting “Ultimate Evil” in the form of evil racists who want to destroy black people. It legitimizes the role-playing they want to be able to do, so they do not even seriously question what Wise is saying.
This is why discourse with progressives often gets so heated. They are role-playing a fantasy in which they are combating Ultimate Evil. Why would you hold back when fighting Ultimate Evil? Ultimate Evil deserves no quarter!
What results from this is a Republican who thinks he is discussing policy differences with an opponent who has a solution that simply will not work, while the Democrat thinks he is trying to save civilization from the New KKK.”