Financial Follies: Banana Republicans…..

Now, here in the US, we are supposed to be geographically challenged, i.e., we enjoy a deficit in social studies information of the kind that runs — what is the capital of Outer Mongolia and name its three leading exports. Ok..guilty as charged.

But guess what, turns out we don’t even know where we’ve been living all these years.

The U.S of A? Nope. Turns out, we’re Zimbabwe:

Here’s Puru Saxena on our banana republic:

“Take a look at the annual money-supply growth rates around the world –

US +12%
Euro zone +13%
Britain +14%
China +20%
Russia +51%
India +23%
S. Africa +22%
Brazil +12%

Now, you don’t have to be a NASA-scientist to figure out that as the quantity of money increases, each unit of money will continue to lose its value or purchasing power against assets whose supply cannot be increased at the same pace. This confiscation of purchasing power has bullish implications for precious metals.

Today, several highly-intelligent economists and analysts are anxiously waiting for “The Crash” which will wipe out the value of the Dow Jones by 50-60%, cut the value of gold by half, cause an economic depression and create a vicious bear-market in asset prices. In my humble opinion, these people are going to be disappointed because “The Crash” will be stealth and will take place via plummeting currencies rather than an outright collapse in nominal asset-prices. Those who are forecasting a significant decline in US asset prices need to look no further than Zimbabwe where stocks have been making record-highs, albeit in a collapsing currency!”

PS: The figures for the growth of M3 in the US were removed from the official stats sometime last year, I believe, but are available at a number of websites, such as, nowandfutures.com.

Now, the US rate doesn’t even look that bad next to some other places, like Russia, for instance. But should Russia, in its current state, with its huge criminal element, be the standard for the US? And note, please, that official Consumer Price Index numbers are massaged in various ways so that inflation rates are heavily disguised. Money supply increases seem only to be boosting asset prices and not hitting the grocery shelves right now, but that’s because we aren’t thinking about things like the massive growth in insurance rates, especially health insurance, but also home insurance costs, increases in rents (not as high as increases in house prices but still growing in most major cities), and another big one, increases in college tuition costs. The important thing is that in India, for example, money supply increases and asset prices inflation, while also bad, have at least been accompanied by increases in salaries (in some sectors) and growth in productivity. Not the case in the US, as far as I can tell…..where growth has been largely in the housing sector (in addition to the burgeoning of the health- care sector).

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