IMF: Recession through 2009

“The IMF — and many private economists — believe the U.S. economy will probably contract in the final three months of this year and the first three months of next year, meeting a classic definition of a recession. The economy’s last recession was in 2001.

The government’s bailout package is aimed at thawing lending by buying bad mortgage-related debt from troubled financial institutions. The idea is that the banks’ books would then be cleaner, putting them in a better position to lend and get the economy moving.

The IMF said this effort should help to stabilize markets but even so “the process of balance-sheet repair will be long and arduous.” Credit availability is likely to remain constrained throughout 2009, the IMF said.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke warned in a speech Tuesday that the economy’s outlook for this year has darkened and the pain could last for some time. His remarks were seen as foreshadowing Wednesday’s rate cut.

Looking at other countries, Germany’s growth will slow to 1.8 percent this year, down from 2.5 percent last year. France’s growth will weaken to just 0.8 percent, compared with 2.2 percent in 2007. Britain’s economy will see growth taper to 1 percent, down from 3 percent last year. Canada’s growth will tail off to 0.7 percent this year, from 2.7 percent last year.

In Japan, growth will cool to just 0.7 percent, from 2.1 percent last year.

Global powerhouses China and India will see growth clock in this year at a robust 9.7 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively. Even if those projections prove correct, they would still mark downgrades from their blistering performances last year. Russia’s economy should grow by a brisk 7 percent this year, down from 8.1 percent last year.

Inflation around the world remains high, driven up by surging energy and food prices through much of this year….”

Propaganda Nation: Clean Coal

“Sarah Palin and John McCain have always been for it. Joe Biden was sort of against it before he was for it and Barack Obama embraces it. To what am I referring? The alleged panacea of clean coal.

Doesn’t it make you feel all warm and fuzzy? We can have our most polluting energy source, the one that gouges our land, dirties our air with particulates, poisons our water with mercury, and generates most of our greenhouse gas emissions because it’s the cheapest, currently most abundant fuel source we have. Well hold on there, coal mavericks, you’re mistaken. Coal is a non-renewable resource. Factor in the externalities of pollution and costs to human heath, and the so-called cheap fuel source skyrockets….”

More at The Huffington Post by Simran Sethi on the bipartisan dog and pony show.

Banker Bail-Out: JPMorgan Take Down of Lehman?

“Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co., the main lender and clearing agent for Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., caused the liquidity crisis that led to Lehman’s collapse, creditors said.

JPMorgan had more than $17 billion of Lehman’s cash and securities three days before the investment bank filed the biggest bankruptcy in history on Sept. 15, the creditors committee said in a filing late yesterday in bankruptcy court in Manhattan. Denying Lehman access to the assets on Sept. 12, the bank “froze” Lehman’s account, the creditors claimed.

JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by deposits, financed Lehman’s brokerage operations with daily advances, while money market funds and other short-term lenders provided overnight loans, according to bankruptcy court documents. When JPMorgan shut Lehman off from funds, Lehman “suffered an immediate liquidity crisis that could have been averted by any number of events, none of which transpired,” according to the filing….”

More at Bloomberg.

Who Will Insure the Insurers?

My latest piece, published at Dissident Voice.

“Who Will Insure the Insurers?

Many members of Congress recognized, correctly, that the main thrust of the Paulson plan was to give more power to..well.. Paulson. But since the Paulson plan was defeated on Monday, some have been talking as though tweaking the Paulson plan on a couple of things would be enough to get it through next time. One tweak, they say, would be to have the government insure the bad loans on the books of financial institutions. This is somehow supposed to be an improvement on the plan that would make it acceptable to Republicans (along with the removal of mark-to-market accounting).

Insurance is actually already a part of the bill that was just defeated (Section 102). Section 102 would guarantee bad loans (sorry, troubled assets) by creating risk-based premiums to cover anticipated claims.

So, rather than buying bad loans, or failed banks (also bad ideas, in my opinion) which at least has the remote chance that the government would get the price increase if the loans (or banks) ever recovered their value, the government is proposing to guarantee the bad loans. That means if these troubled assets got less troubled…even positively robust...the banks that made the loans – not the government – would get the price increase. But if they don’t get better, who picks up the tab? Looks like the government.

An insurance fund offers the prospect of all kinds of interesting shenanigans. Banks could claim to make losses, while actually taking in profits. They could keep doing that for another whole cycle. The possibilities are endless for savvy professionals with degrees in math and sophisticated risk- models.

Why would I suspect these respectable institutions of doing any such thing? Because that’s just what they’ve been doing for a long time – as the ongoing FBI investigations into over two dozen of the firms involved in the bail- outs is showing……”

Better Than Bail-Outs

The market needs deflation, as the natural end of excess, says Barry Brownstein. If we try to avert it by intervention, we will end with something much worse – hyperinflation.

“If, on the other hand, the reactionary forces prevail, more money will be thrown after bad; foreigners will withdraw from our capital markets; and eventually, a hyperinflation will begin. In that terrible scenario, it is likely that the United States will split apart; and many cities will descend into anarchy. You can see why I prefer the deflationary depression.”

And the Republican hold-outs in the House came up with a few ideas of their own:

*Suspend capital gains for two years (boosting global competitiveness and upping stock prices)

*Denationalize and privatize Fannie and Freddie
*Waive mark-to-market”

*Strengthen the dollar”

That’s from a post by Deroy Murdock at Human Events.

Comment:

We’ll get one of those – mark-to-market will go. And maybe some tax cuts. But don’t hold your breath for a strong dollar or privatizing F&F. My bet’s on hyperinflation…

Bankster Bail-Out: What Does Paulson Own and When Will He Own Up to It?

The New China Lobby

Financial blogger, Mish Shedlock, points out that Treasury Secretary Paulson’s plan actually extends to foreign investors. Yes, you read that right. Not to foreign banks headquartered in the US, but to foreign investors. Bad debt (sorry, troubled assets) can move from the foreign branch of a bank to its US branch. Bingo – what’s Mandarin for bingo? – you, the American tax-payer, are on the hook.

None of this should really be surprising. During his time at Goldman Sachs, Paulson made millions of dollars for his firm in China, with commensurate rewards for himself.

In 2006, Goldman Sachs bought into China’s largest bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, for $2.58, one of a number of such deals cut with Chinese state entities, as neoconservative hawks were quick to note. According to knowledgeable people, its profit of $3.9 billion was the biggest ever for the firm since its founding in 1869.

Goldman also bought a stake in Tokyo’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, the third largest financial group in Japan in 2003 ($1.26 billion), in return for which Sumitomo Mitsui loaned billions to Goldman Sachs for its investment-grade clients. Both that and the ICBC deal were financed with Goldman’s own money and with investments by its partners, institutions and wealthy clients.

What’s more, Goldman earned more fees than any other of its global competitors in China, being the only foreign securities firm allowed to both trade stocks for brokerage clients and arrange share sales for companies.

[Wonder why Paulson acts so high-handedly? Goldman is notorious for such conflicts].

Knowing that Goldman is the source of a bunch of the credit default swaps now clogging up global finances, we can safely surmise that its Asian clients are now suffering the same toxic shock afflicting its American and European clients. Some European banks just got a wake-up call this week how bad their own situation was, according to the Daily Telegraph.

A Wall Street legend for paranoia and secrecy, “The Firm” didn’t let on for a while how badly it too had been hit. That front fell apart this fall when its stock price swooned, along with those of other financial firms. Recently, the New York Times reported exactly how much Goldman stood to lose from contracts with insurance giant, AIG. If AIG had gone under, Goldman would have lost $20 billion.

The Times also reported, apparently as revelation, that Lloyd Blankfein, current CEO of Goldman, attended weekend meetings with AIG, Paulson, and others, before the AIG rescue was put through.


[Amazing. Powerful corrupt financiers cut backroom deals with each other and twist arms in powerful corrupt DC. Who would have thought? Of course, in the alternative press we were aware of Goldman’s less than Boy Scout past much before the Times lost its innocence, but better late than never….]

Now we can guess why it was necessary to convert Goldman so quickly into a commercial bank. With access to customer deposits, the bank would be able to replenish its capital in short order.

Does Paulson profit personally? Reportedly, he sold his own shares in Goldman before being sworn in as Treasury Secretary in June 2006. Still, the meetings between Blankfein, AIG, Treasury, and the Federal Reserve sound like the worst kind of cronyism, given AIG’s subsequent rescue.

And they’re not the only problem.

1) The amendment of reserve requirements (in Section 128, in both the original and amended versions of the Paulson plan) is another: “Section 203 of the Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act of 2006 (12 USC 461 note) is amended by striking ‘October 1, 2011’ and inserting ‘October 1, 2008.'”

As Pam Martens points out, this amendment would allow banks to hold zero reserves for transactions, a very enticing prospect for an investment bank in such dire need of capital it had to reinvent itself as a deposit-taking retail bank. And this would go through before the election, before the political scene was altered drastically.

2) The bailout of the financial sector, especially Goldman Sachs, is now a matter of keen interest to a large number of wealthy and influential foreigners – both individuals and private and state-run banks. Paulson’s long-standing ties with these foreign entities, as well as with leading financial entities all over the world, in and of itself constitutes a powerful conflict-of-interest and opens up the question of foreign influence on one of the most powerful offices in our government.

[For instance, since June 2006, more than 100 ICBC executives have attended courses at Goldman’s New York training center, where tutors include Gerald Corrigan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who teaches a course on risk management (of all things). ICBC’s board includes Christopher Cole, Goldman’s chairman of investment banking. One of its directors is former Goldman President John Thornton].

When the American state has interests it declares at odds with those of the Chinese state in a number of areas, for example in Africa (where Goldman has a 20% stake in Africa’s largest bank, Standard Bank); when servicemen and women are fighting and dying, ostensibly to protect those interests; when we are threatening other countries with bombing in defense of those interests; shouldn’t the appearance of foreign entities influencing the Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve policy be treated seriously and transparently?

3) If Goldman went down, ICBC would be severely hit. And so would ICBC’s clients and other investors in ICBC. But it looks like Mr. Paulson would take a big loss too. According to press reports, Mr. Paulson netted a stake reported to be $25 million in the ICBC deal, a stake he and Goldman, as well as investors in Goldman’s private equity funds, are prohibited from selling for three years. A hit to Goldman would hit ICBC (and who knows what else). And a hit to ICBC would hit Paulson’s pocket.

Did Mr. Paulson sell this ICBC stake before he took office or didn’t he? It would be in the national interest to require him to make a public disclosure before this bill is passed.

And then he should resign.

Armageddon – Not! Says Harvard’s Jeffrey Miron

“Talk of Armageddon, however, is ridiculous scare-mongering. If financial institutions cannot make productive loans, a profit opportunity exists for someone else. This might not happen instantly, but it will happen.

Further, the current credit freeze is likely due to Wall Street’s hope of a bailout; bankers will not sell their lousy assets for 20 cents on the dollar if the government might pay 30, 50, or 80 cents…….If these assets are worth something, however, private parties should want to buy them, and they would do so if the owners would accept fair market value. Far more likely is that current owners have brushed under the rug how little their assets are worth.”

More here at CNN.

Marc Faber is more pessimistic – sounding the alarm for a long recession and advising, as he always does, to hold physical gold abroad. Easier said than done. How do you know the folks holding it for you aren’t stiffing you unless you’re physically able to go and check? Still – it’s the best advice around.

Comment

On the other hand, to Robert Kuttner of the American Prospect, Paulson’s diagnosis was right. It’s just that he’s not the right doctor with the right pill.

My take? I think the problem isn’t ultimately about economics or finance. It’s about ideology.

A big reason why AIG was down in the Caribbean tax havens cooking its books was to avoid taxes. Without high taxes and complex tax rules, you wouldn’t have those sorts of tax dodges. They wouldn’t be worth it for most companies. The more complex the rules, the less small businesses can survive. They can’t afford to hire $400 an hour lawyers to keep up with the latest dodges of their bigger and richer competitors. So bigger businesses take over…and grow bigger…since they also enjoy economies of scale as they grow. They start price-fixing. They bribe the government. The regulations change in their favor. They use their government contacts to help their cronies .

Finally, you get the monster with two faces we have today – the corporate-state. You get crony capitalism. The only real solution in this system is to bypass the state altogether or to actively limit it. For which you also have to actively limit the size of the corporations through anti-trust legislation.

In a corrupt society, socialism is attractive, because the ground rules don’t function any more and people can see that. You need more and more political machinery to make anything function at all. What Kuttner doesn’t see is that the new machinery inevitably becomes corrupted too….

Which is why Miron is fundamentally right. But what he wants to happen (bankruptcy without government bail outs) could happen only in a much more decentralized state (or a much smaller one) where people would feel their obligations to each other far more strongly. Today, there are just too many economic and political interests all at odds with each other. The pains of one are the gains of another. And when one has its hand in the state cookie jar, the others will want theirs in it too. Clashing interests are part of how our system works, but not when the state is as large as it is today and people are so far away are from the actual political horse-trading. In a state this big you have only one driving force, mass opinion, and one countervailing force,  propaganda. And when things cannot be pushed the way you want them to go,  then you get direct power play – the military. The state shows its fangs: it moves from fraud (propaganda) to force (war) – which is why both are central to criticism of the state.

Most voters will not be able to accept the fact that they are going to have to feel pain if we take the high road on this. They are going to want something “to be done.” And they are going to be very angry when they find that after a wild party, there’s usually a bar tab and lots of picking up. And they’re going to be even angrier when they find out that they have to do some of the picking up, even if they didn’t attend the party.

But the adjustment has begun. Seems Campbell’s Soup was the only stock that survived the slaughter yesterday. And read Will Grigg about how our triumvirate (Fed Chairman, Treasury Secy., and President) is preparing for trouble from the restive masses.

How Citigroup Ate Wachovia….

“The Trojan Horse in the bailout plan also solves the mystery of how loss-riddled, serially corrupt Citigroup, now run by the former head of a hedge fund, was allowed by the FDIC yesterday to buy $400 Billion in deposits from Wachovia, giving this crippled global tyrant 30 per cent of insured bank deposits in America.

For once, we can be proud of at least 228 members of our Congress. Yes, we do need swift, reasoned action to stave off a financial collapse. But a plan that allows one man to have unfettered access to $700 billion of taxpayer money, decide which firms survive, to potentially concentrate power in a few crony hands, while pushing off even a discussion of vital regulation until next year, is not a plan. It’s organized crime thinly disguised as legislation.. …”

Mayor Bloomberg: US Has to Earn Its Credit Rating

From an excellent post by Karl Denninger at Market-ticker:

“Michael Bloomberg, one of the few intelligent commentators out there (and a billionaire by his own hand) said exactly the same thing today:

“WASHINGTON (AP) — New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is warning a ‘next wave’ of financial pain may come when foreign entities stop buying U.S. debt.

The billionaire mayor is speaking to an audience at Georgetown University, telling them it’s not clear who is going to continue buying U.S. debt as financial firms try to cope with a crisis of confidence on Wall Street.”

Mr. Bloomberg sees the same thing I do, but he’s a bit more polite than I am about it.

Then there was S&P which made this quite clear as well:

“The $85 billion bailout of AIG on Tuesday by the U.S. Federal Reserve “has weakened the fiscal profile of the United States,” S&P’s John Chambers told Reuters in an interview.

“Lack of a pro-active stance could have resulted in further financial stress and put pressure on the U.S. triple-A rating,” Chambers said. “There’s no God-given gift of a AAA rating, and the U.S. has to earn it like everyone else.”

Is that clear enough?

Congress MUST ACT RIGHT DAMN NOW.

Congress MUST stop The Fed and Treasury from printing any more money. The institutions that are insolvent must be forced into the open and put through bankruptcy.

We CANNOT wait until the next Congress and the election to stop this nonsense; that’s five months in the future. By then The United States could easily be quite literally broke and forced into a hyperinflationary spiral!

Debt that cannot be paid must be defaulted….”

The Fed, Bear, and JPMorgan – Maiden Lane LLC

From the FDIC website here’s Federal Reserve Statistical Release H 4.1 that includes information on Maiden Lane LLC, the holding company that was the conduit for the acquisition of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan and for the management of its assets.

For Release at
4:30 P.M. Eastern time
July 3, 2008

The Board’s H.4.1 statistical release, “Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks,”
has been modified to include information related to Maiden Lane LLC, a
limited liability company formed to facilitate the arrangements associated
with JPMorgan Chase Co.’s acquisition of Bear Stearns Companies, Inc.

On June 26, 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) extended credit
to Maiden Lane LLC under the authority of section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve
Act. This limited liability company was formed to acquire certain assets of
Bear Stearns and to manage those assets through time to maximize repayment of
the credit extended and to minimize disruption to financial markets. Payments
by Maiden Lane LLC from the proceeds of the net portfolio holdings will be
made in the following order: operating expenses of the LLC, principal due to
the FRBNY, interest due to the FRBNY, principal due to JPMorgan Chase Co.,
and interest due to JPMorgan Chase Co. Any remaining funds will be paid to
the FRBNY….”

More here.