Update (November 14, 2009)
This isn’t an update so much as an additional note on the Van Eeden excerpt below.
*Van Eeden has a good track record, but he’s also a disbeliever in any CB or Fed conspiracy to intervene in the markets. Since that intervention is not conspiracy but fairly well-documented, I’m less confident of his opinion.
*Faber, on the other hand, seems to have his ear much closer to the ground.
For instance, he called the RBI one of the best banks in the world on November 6 (see my blog post).
That was just before the Indian bank’s gold purchase. Now, doesn’t it look as if he knew something was coming up? Either that, or he is doing some clever PR for the IMF.
*Faber’s recently (Nov 11) called $1000 the floor for the gold price and has said that it won’t be breached to the downside again.
[However, just a few days ago, on November 6th, he also said gold could drop to $800. I don’t know how to explain this sudden change. It wasn’t the IMF gold sale to the RBI, because that was completed in mid-October and went public on November 3, before both of Faber’s comments].
*Faber argues for much higher inflation than Van Eeden…who doesn’t believe we have inflation..yet.
Now, Faber’s analysis might be overblown, but his conclusion could still be right. Since he’s based in Asia, he could be privy to information that American money managers might miss.
Conclusion: while Faber’s analysis doesn’t seem as sound to me as Van Eeden’s, Faber might just end up being right because he’s factored in market manipulation.
*In response to a reader comment below:- I know Eric Janszen has also called for very high inflation in the 4th Q, which would indicate a high gold price.
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From Paul van Eeden:
“The Chinese Communist Party apparently learned from America that debt financed consumption was not a sustainable economic model. Their solution, it seems, is even more absurd: debt financed production in the absence of demand…..
Earlier we reached the conclusion that interest rates could potentially start increasing and cause the US dollar exchange rate to strengthen, which, in turn, would cause the gold price to fall. We can now add that the massive inflation of China’s money supply can cause the renminbi to collapse and send another currency crises rippling through financial markets. A collapse of the Chinese renminbi could also result in a stronger dollar and lower gold price…….
What would happen if China were the epicenter of an economic collapse? What happens when the gold and commodity bulls realize China cannot continue to consume at an even greater pace than it had been when the world was buying its goods, but, instead, now has to work down the excess inventory it built up? It would be a good bet that the US dollar would rally and the gold price would fall.
Given that the gold price is trading at a 25% premium to its fair value and that we can imagine several scenarios whereby the US dollar could rally and the gold price could fall, it seems to me that betting on a higher gold price right now is merely a bet on the Greater Fool Theory.”