A ratio of 2,801:1+ million

Anyone who says that 9-11 justified the war in Iraq is saying, in effect, that the deaths of 2,801 people (let’s round it up to 3000) justifies the killing of over a million (and here we are ignoring the deaths of US and Iraqi military and Afghan civilians and military). Let’s round that down to 1 million. That’s 3000 to 1 million or 3 to 1000 or 1 to about 333.

What that means is that for each American life, we think killing 333 foreign lives is justified.

Try to translate that into private life. Imagine that you come home and find that someone has killed your son or wife. Imagine that you then feel justified in going into a neighborhood (sort of) close to where your suspected murderer lives and blowing up all the homes there and killing several hundred people.

What do you think the reaction of other people, let alone the government, would be? Wouldn’t you be considered insane? Wouldn’t you quickly be arrested, hauled off to a maximum security jail (with bail set as high as possible) and put on a 24-hour watch?

By contrast, in the world of states, the avenger is allowed to justify himself in public places, create alliances with other neighborhood thugs, threaten new neighborhoods, arm himself to the teeth, threaten even his own family members and feel highly virtuous — even pious — while doing so.
Is there anything more telling about the fundamental immorality, and even lunacy, of the state system? No use just blaming the US government. You can be pretty sure that there are dozens of other governments all over this planet, which in the same place, would do the same…. or worse.

Which leads us to the inescapable conclusion – the state system is a grossly immoral conspiracy against all decency and humanity.

Pat Buchanan – shows himself a statesman

Pat Buchanan just showed why he’s head and shoulders above the establishment right in foreign policy. He said, Ahmadinejad should be allowed to place a wreath at the WTC .

There speaks the voice of reason, instead of another pandering politician. Ahmadinejad’s alleged remark about wiping out Israel was, in the first place, misrepresented in the US press. He said something rather different. Now he’s making friendlier moves – such as, showing sympathy to the Holocaust, and now, showing that he considered 9-11 a terrible act.

Buchanan pointed out, rightly, that Reagan would have accepted the rapprochement. He recalled Nixon sitting down with Chairman Mao, who surely was a monster. He pointed out that even President Bush accepted Libya’s overture.

Here is another earlier piece on the same subject by Buchanan.

Ron Paul, General Petraeus, and shock doctrine sloganeering…

My new piece on Ron Paul and David Petraeus (at Lew Rockwell):

“This past week the buzz has all been about the House testimony of General David Petraeus on the “surge” in Iraq and an inflammatory ad in response that dubbed him General “Betray Us.”

The ad, the brainchild of an antiwar group, ripped the general’s assessment that the increase in manpower in Iraq in 2007 (the “surge”) has been effective. It pointed out that the Petraeus report is in stark contrast to independent evaluations of the situation by the GAO as well as evaluations by the Republican party itself.

At issue is the timing of troop withdrawal.

The antiwar movement (with a large part of the population) wants the troops out immediately and insists that the US presence in Iraq is itself inciting violence and terrorism. Bush supporters, many Republicans, some Democrats, and the rest of the population support staying on. They say that immediate withdrawal could create a strategic and humanitarian disaster.

Whatever we think of the administration, we can safely assume that most war supporters really do believe that the occupation of Iraq is central to US national security and the war on terrorism. Questioning their good faith isn’t necessary. Asking why they think this way is.

Take the language war-supporters use. It suggests that people like Ron Paul who want immediate withdrawal are dangerously unrealistic, not merely unpatriotic.

These critics should take another look and see if it isn’t their ideas that run counter to reality. They give us “withdrawal” and “staying on” as mutually exclusive opposites. But any kind of withdrawal can’t possibly happen without some staying on. The troops can’t simply come home tomorrow, presto, because we want them out. So, the issue really is not withdrawal but different lengths of staying on. A few months or many years? At this point you’ll notice that the troops have already stayed on for four years.

Is all this hairsplitting?

No.

By constantly talking in binary terms (withdrawal/no withdrawal), we play into our brain’s hard-wired tendency to think along the lines of group rivalry. We play into the “mob mind” that loves nothing more than slogans.

Obviously if there is a yes/no, either/or divide, we can safely perch on one side and shove our rivals (and the divide immediately creates rivals) to the other side. Then we can devote all our energies to reinforcing this fictitious model with every shred of evidence and lung power at our disposal. Anyone with a passing interest in psychology will tell you what the result will be. We will get more and more of what we focus on – an impasse. And our model of the world will increasingly diverge from the reality underneath.

Take away the “withdraw/no withdrawal” slogan and something happens.

What you get turns out to be not one question but at least two, both of which require us to look at history, not just ideology.

The prescriptive question is –

How long should we stay?

(The post-mortem version is more accurate, how long should we have stayed?)

And the descriptive question is –

How long have we already stayed?

The second question is more interesting….and quite clear.

We’ve been in Iraq not for 4 years, but for 16. (If we count all the meddling with different groups, we’ve been there even longer – for decades). A baby born when George père halted at the gates of Baghdad would be taking her SAT’s by the time George fils first started showing withdrawal symptoms.

To people who think that getting out now will create a national security and humanitarian disaster, the question we really should be posing is this one:

What sort of national security and humanitarian contingency ever needed a 16-year troop presence half way across the globe that took, all told, around 1.5 million civilian and military lives and around 1.5 trillion dollars?

Seen this way, the issue is no longer the timing of the withdrawal. That’s simply the logistical seal on a 16-year bipartisan strategy that’s already about as big a disaster in humanitarian, economic, and national security terms as you could possibly have without entirely wiping out a country.

The real question is the point of such a disastrous strategy in the first place.

Focusing on the past 16 years (rather than the past 4) tells us where we should be looking for explanations: To the end of the Cold War.

The Cold War, of course, was a boon to the mob mentality. There were all those stark slogans of bi-polarity – us/them, good guys/evil empire, capitalist/communist.

At one level there was good sense in them. Nobody can read Solzhenitsyn or Robert Conquest without being overwhelmed by the magnitude of the horrors in Soviet Russia. Or in Mao’s China. Or under the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia.

It would be easy to conclude from that that what the US did from fear that such communist regimes would expand was always and everywhere justified.

But it wasn’t – because the slogans swept a great deal under the carpet. Some of which was more precious than the painted furniture on top. The label of communism, for instance, failed to tell apart communists and nationalists, communists and anti-imperialists, communists and anarchists, communists and socialists. The real facts of history and politics got washed out in the ideological spin-cycle.

Worse yet, instead of standing firmly on its own individualist, libertarian, and rational principles to counter the evils of utopianism, America – or rather the US government – began to adopt the collectivist methods of its enemies. From a modest republic content with commercial pursuits it transformed itself into a grasping empire of ideologues. Some would say that this has always been the case and that the roots of empire reach much deeper into American history. They could be right.

However, it was really during the Cold War that the non-interventionist principles of the old republic were most thoroughly dismantled. And the sloganeers trying to rally the masses were the primary victims of the sloganeering:

Conservatives started discarding rather than conserving traditional principles of state-craft to pursue a world order made in their own image.

Free marketers began to believe that the state ought to subsidize their risk-taking.

Capitalists started adopting socialist language and policies.

Liberal democracy – of the particular kind enjoyed by western states in the twentieth century – was now said to be an unconditional good for all states, at all times.

But, as a mad, wise man said, “everything unconditional belongs in pathology.”

So, at the end of several decades wrestling with the unconditional theories of world communism, the US too began to display its own pathology.

This was enough the case that in 1989 when the sloganeers said that the capitalists had defeated the communists, some observers feared that both had lost. They were right. The rivalry between capitalism and communism turned out to have been a race to the bottom. The price of winning the fight against communism was the loss of the principle at stake in the fight.

Liberty holding up the torch of reason to guide the state became liberty torching reason in abject service to the state.

This new liberty was not liberty at all but license. The regulations it effectively dismantled were mainly those that applied to businesses feeding off government contracts that were large enough to rule out the rule-makers. The rest of America was hog-tied with rules. Here, too, employing the slogans of the mob misleads: It turns out you can have too much regulation and too little – simultaneously.

So, while ordinary individuals and businesses are persecuted at every turn by ham-handed bureaucrats, a handful of corporations, especially those connected to the military, banking, finance, and energy, have become a rentier class, deriving their profits not from genuine free enterprise, from value added, innovation, foresight, and risk-taking, but from their special relationship to the government. Entrepreneurs have been displaced by over-paid technocrats, experts, and managers every bit as bureaucratic and wasteful as the state enterprises they claim to be stream-lining.

Even the most sensitive government functions, like intelligence, are handed over to private contractors working hand-in-hand with the state in mercantilist ventures that rely increasingly on war and disaster to achieve their goals. Simultaneously, the life-blood of the economy, its paper money, is subject to continuous manipulation. As more and more of middle-class savings in the bank, in pension funds, and in home equity, are sucked into the financial markets, financiers siphon off the profits for themselves, while government bailouts socialize the costs of their risk-taking.

It is this corrupt “corporatism” that has claimed the mantle of liberty and free enterprise and swindled millions all over the world into believing it is the true face of free enterprise.

Thus, in her new book, “Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism,” Naomi Klein, author of the anti-globalization manifesto, “No Logo,” draws a connection between government shock therapy and human rights violations (echoing a fine essay by Peter Linebaugh in Counterpunch in 2004).

For her, as for many on the left, mercantilism and financialization are capitalism.

But why should we argue the point with socialists when so-called capitalists themselves agree? When the right claims that opposition to torture and war are opposition to the American way of life – isn’t it conceding just this? That capitalism and individualism require endless war and torture?

But suppose, just suppose, the case is precisely the opposite. Suppose it is our slogans that are at fault, not capitalism. Suppose – as it really is – that capitalism and free enterprise best go hand in hand with peace and that the welfare-warfare state we’re so comfortable with is properly called collectivist, not capitalist.

Suppose that the war on Iraq is not a defense of the individualist way of life but the final assault on it – then what?

Then we might notice that the sense of duty that General Petraeus shows – the unquestioning loyalty to the organization he works for, the competitive desire to get the job done, is quite a different thing from that displayed, for instance, by the plain-speaking General George C. Marshall, whose name happens to be on an award given to Petraeus.

Today, plain-speaking is out. Part of the duty the military is to undertake public diplomacy so extensive that it is no more than disinformation.

It is disinformation, for instance, to say that a reduction in troop size of around 30,000 by next year (that is, after the elections) is a withdrawal of troops, when all it would do is return troop strength to what it was before the surge in 2007.

That is not a reduction, it is actually an extension of a surge originally expected to produce a result in 6 months – or be declared a failure.

But should we blame this on Petraeus, who, with a PhD from Princeton in Public Administration, is after all as much a technocrat as he is a general? A technocrat who is intimately part of the financialization and mercantilism of US Govt. Inc. In Bosnia, for example, he was Deputy Commander of the U.S. Joint Interagency Counter-Terrorism Task Force (JITF-CT), specially created after September 11 to add a counter-terrorism capability to the U.S. forces under NATO in Bosnia.

That was at the time when Dyncorp, one of the largest private military contractors in the world, was providing police officers as part of a $15 million annual contract for logistical support.

Two of its employees alleged that several colleagues had colluded in the black-market sex trade of women and children – allegations supported by a court finding that the firing of one whistle-blower was retaliatory and by an out-of-court settlement with another.

Nonetheless, Dyncorp was active again in Iraq, sending out ex-cops and security guards to Iraq to help train a new police force. And again, it was none other than Petraeus who was in charge of that training as well as in setting up Shiite militias (death squads) to go after Sunnis.

Recall, too, that conditions for interrogations involving torture were often set by private contractors unaccountable to government through traditional channels.

And that it was General Petraeus who set up the Shia militias in July 2004 as part of a “surge” that immediately followed the exposure of torture at Abu Ghraib but was immediately displaced by it in the media sensation.

Now, with this new surge in Iraq, three years later, what Petraeus is doing is simply switching his enemies. He is now arming and training Sunni militias to fight Shia.

But he’s not switching contractors. In June 2007 Dyncorp was again chosen by the US army to provide logistical support, this time to the tune of $5 billion a year.

This is the backdrop to Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki’s falling out with Petraeus this past summer. Al-Maliki, a Shia, demanded that Petraeus stop creating Sunni militia. He wanted an end to the surge and the US out of Iraq immediately.

But why would the administration want to get out when arming Sunni militias provokes Iranian support of the Shia? And when that, in turn, provides a convenient justification for more sabre-rattling against Iran? It perfectly fits a decades old neo-conservative plan to destabilize the Middle East.

Obviously, Petraeus, who did his doctoral dissertation on the impact of Vietnam on the conduct of war, has learned the lesson from it that public perception of a war must be thoroughly managed. Too bad that’s not quite the same lesson learned by one of his best advisors, Col. H. R. McMaster, a soldier celebrated in Tom Clancy’s novels.

McMaster’s book on Vietnam, “Dereliction of Duty,” blames not just the arrogance of Johnson and McNamara for the failure in Vietnam but their calculated deception of the American people. The book is now required reading in the army. Yet, oddly, its author was passed over twice for promotion, while Petraeus shot to the top. That should tell us exactly which lesson from Vietnam is in favor with this government. And what sort of patriotism is popular these days.

Just there lies the difference between the Patriot Acts of this administration and the acts of patriots like Ron Paul, who owes nothing to any organization for his views. Who stands entirely apart from the two-faced one-party system currently in power.

Paul’s patriotism comes from an older time, when someone like “George Marshall could tell the truth and be praised for it, not slandered.

“When General Marshall takes the witness stand to testify,” it was said, “we forget whether we are Republicans or Democrats. We know we are in the presence of a man who is telling the truth about the problem he is discussing.”

The truth-telling of General Marshall and Dr. Paul is what this country desperately needs today. Without it, we face a defeat much greater than anything than we have experienced in Iraq so far. We face a loss whose magnitude dwarfs any loss of security or power that could be feared from withdrawing at once.

We face a defeat of the very values that originally formed and guided this country. The values professed especially by the Republican party – individualism, free enterprise, limited government, and liberty. Ultimately, these values will be discredited simply because they will be seen as part of the discredited policies of this un-republican Republican administration.

For the truth is that to the world the occupation of Iraq is not simply a blunder. It is a neo-colonial adventure of a very savage sort. One that recalls, to many, the carving up of the globe in the nineteenth century by the European empires. And in much of the developing world today, these empires are identified, falsely, with free enterprise and individualism. Colonialism and capitalism are attacked as one.

Which is why severing the ties of enterprise to empire is the crucial task at hand for individualists and free marketers everywhere. A task only a man like Ron Paul can undertake, when all the other enemies of imperialist collectivism are also friends of socialist collectivism.

Buy this book.

As individualists, though, we know better. We know that it is only free markets (and the laws that protect them) that let the poor raise themselves out of poverty. Corrupt governments and crony capitalists can never do it. And if we cannot care for the poor, sheer self-interest should tell us that our commerce too cannot thrive in a world where people are impoverished by war and plunder.

Before defending the blundering of an inept administration this should have been the first duty of Republicans – defending the slandered honor and interests of free enterprise

Instead, today, Republicans have done what a century of communism failed to do. They have let the occupation of Iraq triumphantly resurrect collectivism from the ashes of Cold War defeat. They have given it a credibility its own performance never could.

Buy this book.

Everywhere we look, collectivists celebrates moral victories: the fiery analysis of anti-globalization activists and antiwar activists strips the corporate-state of its last fig-leaf. And rightly so.

What is truly calamitous, however, is that in the popular mind, the free market stands equally stripped as well.

That is why the important question before us now is not who will save Iraq.

For Iraq was lost the day we attacked it without just cause.

The question before us now is who will save individualism and free markets.

Iraq war casualties higher than Rwanda?

Accodring to a poll conducted by Opinion Research Business, UK, more than 1,000,000 Iraqi citizens have been killed since the invasion took place in 2003. An earlier estimate published in the Lancet in October 2006, suggested almost half this number (654,965 deaths), but was still attacked as too high.

ORB has been tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005 and with their Iraqi fieldwork agency, polled a representative group of 1,461 adults aged 18

•Results were based face-to-face interviews amongst a nationally representative sample of 1720 adults aged 18+ throughout Iraq.
•The standard margin of error on the sample size was +2.4%
•The methodology uses multi-stage random probability sampling and covers fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq. For security reasons Karbala and Al Anbar were not included. Irbil was excluded as the authorities refused our field team a permit.
•Interviews were conducted August 12th – 19th 2007.

More at Opinion Research Business.

Criticism of the figures and criticism of the critics:

Quote:

ditto with air strikes: 116,000 deaths (mostly unnoticed despite insurgent/militia/anti-occupation incentives to publicize them) and 132,000 injuries from air strikes. Given the nature of aerial bombardment, does this under-reporting or ratio make sense?

first point first: if do not accept the main result of a poll, do NOT bother with subresults!

or the other way round: imagine, if they had the bomb dead wrong by 50%! oops, next to zero effect on totals!

there are airstrikes in Iraq every day. after over 1000 days of war, the number of dead is rather low. and the majority of “air strike dead” might still have happened during the initial invasion.

http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/62511/

A few other strange things from the detailed tables on ORB’s website:

one more other strange things, from observing “iraq death toll critics”: the majority of you has some serious lack in basic statistics!

1. It looks like they oversampled Baghdad relative to its share of the population. This could be important in pushing numbers up.

please, try to find out, what “oversampling” is. hint: it has something to do with SUBSAMPLES, that you are interested in. please assume, that the O.R.B. guys do HAVE some basic statistical understanding.

http://www.opinion.co.uk/who-we-are.aspx

2. Anbar is not included (as far as I can tell from the table listing provinces). Strange.

reading statistics, requires basic simple reading skills. in the article that Tim linked to, they explain that they ignored Anbar, because it was too dangerous!

http://www.opinion.co.uk/Newsroom_details.aspx?NewsId=78

4. They also interviewed a disproportionate share of non-Muslims (only 45% of respondents were “Muslim” overall and 28% percent in Baghdad — the reset where orthodox, catholic, protestant, etc.).

please explain: what line in what table, did you take that information from?

http://www.opinion.co.uk/Documents/TABLES.pdf

5. The study suggests a lot of movement/displacement. External refugee flows probably mean that ORBs baseline population estimate for Iraq is too high, and internal displacement has probably increased the average size of remaining households as people flee to live with relatives. Together, this would alter the total number of estimated households in Iraq downward and increase the average household size — suggesting the ORB estimate is probably skewed high.

wow. you really expect movement, death and displacement to bias numbers upwards?

instead of assuming, that those displaced might be the ones, who suffered the worst casualties? and will not be polled, because they are in a camp or abroad?

For all these reasons, it would be good to know more about the methodology here.

for all this reasons: i seriously doubt, that you are the right person, to challenge their methodology.”

More on the methodology and its critics at Deltoid

via Daily Kos.

Media-trix & inforwarmongering: 3 day strike against Iran?

Alexis Debat, former media consultant to ABC (especially to Brian Ross’ s reports) is proving worthy of more and more scrutiny, especially after posting a widely circulated report that the US planned a 3-day strike against all Iranian military facilities. Apparently, Debat was also active in the run up to the Iraq war and in concocting interviews-that-never-were with Barack Obama, Bill Gates, and others…

“The renewed scrutiny has been driven by revelations about Mr. Debat after a French news Web site, Rue 89, reported this week that an interview supposedly with Senator Obama was entirely made up. Mr. Debat, who could not be reached last night, sent an e-mail message to ABC yesterday saying the allegations against him “are slanderous.”

He told The Washington Post Wednesday that an intermediary had spoken with Mr. Obama. But representatives for Mr. Obama denied that he spoke with anyone connected to Mr. Debat.

Subsequently, other figures whose interviews appeared under Mr. Debat’s byline in the French magazine Politique Internationale have come forward to say they never spoke to him. These included Mr. Clinton; Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg; Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman; Bill Gates, the chairman of Microsoft; and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Since his departure from ABC News in June, Mr. Debat has continued to work as a senior fellow for national security and terrorism at the Nixon Center in Washington. He was quoted as a knowledgeable source in an article in The Times of London this month, saying that American military forces were planning attacks that would demolish “the entire Iranian military.” He has also been quoted by many newspapers and news services.

Guillemette Faure, a reporter for Rue 89, said doubts had been raised about an ABC report, with Mr. Debat as a source, during the buildup to the Iraq war. The report said that Uday Hussein, a son of Saddam Hussein, had ordered two French ballet students at gunpoint to have sex in public…..”

More at the New York Times.

Now, wazzup with that, eh?

Why would a known liar from the Iraq war run-up now be overstating the Pentagon’s plans against Iran?

You can’t guess? Well – here’s a little anecdote from the life of Bertold Brecht, the German writer. Brecht recalled fondly how he would snooker his teachers in much the same way. If he got back a failing grade, he would cover the right answers on his paper with red ink and then go back and complain to his teacher that the marking was all wrong. The embarrassed teacher would naturally undo all the redmarks, even the ones he had originally given, and Brecht would get through the exam.

Over at Kos, some bloggers seem to agree:

“The publicity over Debat’s alleged “massive” Pentagon strike plan has helped render a “less than massive” strike much more viable, in PR terms. ”
Oh, what a tangled web we weave/when first we practice to deceive etc. etc…

Iraq war-mongering: Where humanitarian intervention leads…

This is the government we don’t trust to send our mail properly, remember. What were we thinking getting them into the job of nation-building?

Nation-building? Is this an army or a focus group? Next, we’ll hear someone telling us they want to “address the issues” and “come together as a community.”

Yes. That’s what all those daisy-cutters are about. Nation-building.

 

 

Did you know that:

 

  • Did you know that there is deliberate ethnic cleansing – often by government-linked militias. Baghdad, say US military officials, has gone from 65% Sunni to 75% Shiite over the last four years (that includes Christians who used to live at peace with Muslims there before).
  • Did you know that a 2006 Johns Hopkins University study estimated the death count at 655,000 .While the study is controversial, it used the same methodology to establish the death count at Darfur – which no one is questioning — and in the Congo. Several hundred thousand is what most experts agree on.
  • 79% of Iraqis oppose the continuing presence of Coalition forces in Iraq, and 47% are so desperate as to want an immediate departure. 67% of people around the world polled by the World Service want withdrawal within a year. There are currently 168,000 US troops in Iraq. General Petraeus has announced the possibility of 30,000 combat troops being withdrawn by summer 2008. This would only bring the US troop level back to the point it was at in January 2007 – and, indeed, in 2003.

Time to wake up from the bad dream, everyone. Your job is to get the attention of the next person who is planning on voting for our two-faced one-party system and get them to see the light. If rivers of blood don’t move them – and they probably won’t – tell them that nuclear war in the Middle East is really, really bad for the air quality in Israel too; the housing market is coming unstuck, which means no more home-equity ATM machine; and 2-3 billion Asians are not going to go away any time soon.

The thinking around here needs to make room for all of the above or it can be confidently certified delusional.

Oh, and do a little research and let them know the history of the Darby Bible, while you’re at it…..

Ron Paul Revolution: Before the war on terror, there was the war on logic…

From a letter to co-author Bill Bonner, at the Daily Reckoning, complaining about support for Ron Paul:

“We are spending as much now as we did during WWII for the exact same purpose. Like it or not, we are in WWIII, a war against men as evil as Hitler, Mussolini, Hirohito. Fascist, unconscionable Muslim terrorist rats, determined (they’ve said so) to destroy you, me, our children and our way of life. “I’m a Korean Veteran. I know what I was fighting for. Do you? Ron Paul sure doesn’t. What in the world do core libertarian beliefs in limited economic and social constitutional government have to do with the war in Iraq? A great many libertarians want us to win this war because all Americans would then be safer. Defeat would greatly strengthen those who have declared war on us….”

If anyone needs to be answered, it is not the Bush administration, but men like these – brave, honorable, sincere.

So how does one answer them?

1. America was much more powerful in the world in economic terms in World War II than she is today. Her relative strength is much less now. She cannot succeed militarily without the close cooperation of allies and neutral parties. Her interests all over the world would be threatened in the most dire way, otherwise. One example — the Chinese hold US debt to an unparalleled degree; the Chinese are also negotiating with Iran over a number of issues. They would certainly take a strike against Iran negatively.

2. Muslims constitute over a billion of the world’s people, spread out not just in the Middle East, but in Asia, where American interests are at stake as well. Some of these countries, like Malaysia, are players in the Asian growth story and are close enough to China and India that destabilization or Islamicization there wouldl have a spill-over effect. Should things turn ugly, that would drive out US and European multinationals. The fall-out on the global economy would be completely unpredicatble but probably huge.

3. International cooperation – especially with Muslim countries – is absolutely central to the war on terror. That cannot be obtained simply by coddling or bribing unpopular Muslim governments. It has to result from a perception by moderate Muslims that the war on terror really is just that, and not a war on Islam.

3. Terrorism is a tactic, used by all sorts of aggrieved political interests, from the IRA to the Tamil Tigers to Al Qaeda. It is less expensive to talk and negotiate with terrorists than to throw billions of dollars down a black hole of strategic blundering and corruption. It also works better. That is not appeasement. Let’s not get bamboozled by words. There is a time to negotiate and a time to talk tough. Right now, the cards are not with the US at all — no matter how the White House spins it. The cards aren’t with any single person or country or institution. They’ve been shuffled, reshuffled, thrown around and hidden up so many sleeves that it’s any one’s guess where the joker is….or who holds it…..or how it will be played.

4. Military analysts actually consider the Cold War, World War III. They consider the War on Terror, WW IV. Isn’t it convenient that they’re able to keep track of the decades with wars? Doesn’t it make you wonder? If any of these wars were all that successful, they would have led to prolonged peace. They didn’t. Why is that?

More to come

Bush falling back on Saddam loyalists….

“The American administration is now using the very Sunni tribes that Saddam had worked with, mainly by purchasing their loyalty. It is very significant that Bush during his visit to Iraq a few days ago went to Anbar province rather than Baghdad, reflecting the realization that Nouri al-Maliki’s government is no longer the chosen vehicle for attaining America’s goals.

SPIEGEL: How does Washington plan to go about the business of ending the war?

KOLKO: There is utter confusion in Washington about how to end this morass. Goals are similar but the means to attain them are increasingly changing, confused, and as victory becomes more elusive so too does this administration look pathetic. The ‘surge’ in the opinion of a majority of quite conservative Establishment foreign policy experts (80 percent of whom had once served in government) was failing; the administration’s handling of the war, in their view, was dismal. In fact, it is disastrous…”

Media Watch: Kossacks and Move On tell it like is…

It was a pleasure to hear some sharp truth-telling on Chris Matthews’ Hardball tonight.

Call a spade a spade, said Eli Parisier and Markos Moulitsas defending their controversial ad calling General Petraeus General Betray Us.

Frankly, I would have have phrased that differently — no need to impugn anyone’s patriotism. That didn’t help.
Nonetheless, their point was a good one:

Why get so worked up about an admittedly harsh ad — when tens of thousands of lives and billions of dollars are being wasted in a blood bath half way across the globe that serves no use except to fuel more terrorism?

War is the central issue for libertarians, right or left. We can fight about Cesar Chavez or Hugo Chavez afterwards……

Second thoughts:

On the other hand, calling Petraeus a traitor only makes it more difficult for Republicans to oppose the general….and now I hear Dennis Kucinich is in Syria talking about the illegality of the US occupation.

Sometimes I wonder if people are actually interested in changing things or getting their message across in an effective way at all…

Police State Chronicles: Cheney aide hoped for another attack….

Glen Greenwald on Dick Cheney’s wishful thinking:

“Two revelations in particular are extraordinary and deserve (but are unlikely to receive) intense media coverage. First, it was Goldsmith who first argued that the administration’s secret, warrantless surveillance programs were illegal, and it was that conclusion which sparked the now famous refusal of Ashcroft/Comey in early 2004 to certify the program’s legality. Goldsmith argued continuously about his conclusion with Addington, and during the course of those arguments, this is what happened:

[Goldsmith] shared the White House’s concern that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act might prevent wiretaps on international calls involving terrorists. But Goldsmith deplored the way the White House tried to fix the problem, which was highly contemptuous of Congress and the courts. “We’re one bomb away from getting rid of that obnoxious [FISA] court,” Goldsmith recalls Addington telling him in February 2004.

Their goal all along was to “get rid of the obnoxious FISA court” entirely, so that they could freely eavesdrop on whomever they wanted with no warrants or oversight of any kind. And here is Dick Cheney’s top aide, drooling with anticipation at the prospect of another terrorist attack so that they could seize this power without challenge. Addington views the Next Terrorist Attack as the golden opportunity to seize yet more power. Sitting around the White House dreaming of all the great new powers they will have once the new terrorist attack occurs — as Addington was doing — is nothing short of deranged. Contrary to the claims made by Bush and his followers ever since the NSA scandal arose, their real objective in secretly creating “The Terrorist Surveillance Program” was never to find a narrow means to circumvent FISA when, in those few cases, it impeded necessary eavesdropping. Rather, the goal was to get rid of FISA altogether and return the country to the days when our government could spy on us in total secrecy, with no oversight. Of course, until they could “get rid of” that law altogether — through the only tactic they know: exploitation of Terrorism — they simply decided to violate it at will….”