Global games: OPEC unwilling to side with Venzuela and Iran

“Venezuela – whose leftist President Hugo Chávez appears to revel in tweaking the nose of the US, which he alleges backed a failed coup against him five years ago – has been pushing for higher oil prices in tandem with Iran, as well as a move away from the US dollar.

In this, both countries failed. Saudi Arabia – which accounts for about 30 percent of OPEC production – clearly signaling its opposition to what it views as the politicization of the commodity.

After Mr. Chávez urged OPEC’s leaders to use their oil wealth to become an “active political agent” and warned that oil prices would rise above $200 a barrel if the US takes military action against his ally, Iran, Saudi King Abdullah dismissed his arguments.

“Oil … should not become a tool for conflict and emotions,” he said. “Those who want OPEC to become an organization of monopoly and exploitation ignore the truth.”

More by Dan Murphy at the Christian Science Monitor.

Bubble Kings have their own wealth abroad….

“Paulson has successfully orchestrated the rigging of the dollar in collaboration with crony banks like the BIS, ECB, BOJ and BOE (Barclays); and, surprisingly, for the moment, China. The “smart money” — no small part of which are the insiders, the henchmen providing logistical support to the Goldman empire (self-aggrandizing CEOs, etc.) — has long moved into gold (back when the Rothschilds abandoned the London gold fix), Euros and, increasingly, tangible properties lying outside of the sinking-ship America, into high growth regions like Asia and India — and now, increasingly, mineral rich Africa…….This explains the absence of the bond vigilantes. The wealthy have never held their money in the equity casino. Their lifestyles are framed in the triple-A credit markets, taking sustenance from the interest earned on the shoulders of the working man. With interest payments no longer covering the cost of inflation, the Goldman Sachs oligarchy has corralled the wealth and relocated it offshore.”
From Rick Ackerman at Goldseek.

Comment:
Anyone who thinks that the gold price has successfully broken free of manipulation this time round should watch it. When I wrote my investigative piece on Goldman Sachs last year, I too underestimated the grip they had on the system. I thought that the weakness of the subprime market and the problems with the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) – problems in which Goldman was involved – as well as their own corruption would eventually prove too much. Instead, GS managed to exploit and further extend its government ties. Its alumni are now in charge, not only of the Fed Reserve, US Treasury and other key government positions (including security), but also of 3 of the half dozen biggest banks. The result? GS not only managed to escape really being hit by the subprime mess but to fatten off of it. Not because of financial wizardry. But because of insider connections that get thicker and thicker with each tick of the clock.Moral of the story? Trade gold midterm (if you must) – don’t hold it and forget it (unless you bought it at historic lows). Better yet, forget about gold and try to buy real assets of good quality that generate cash flow.

And help break through the PC fog. It’s not about whether there’s a woman or an African American in the White House. It’s not about gay marriage or gun control. All those are important issues, but right now, quite secondary.

 

I’m not against being courteous and calling anyone what they want to be called, but the result of falling in line with every part of PC is to keep you thinking that secondary issues are more important than they are. Whether they are for or against guns or gays or babies or birthpills, ALL the major candidates are FOR the present system. Whether it’s Barack or Hillary or Rudy or Fred, there’s still going to be bigger government, more wars, more manipulation of finance.

But don’t give up on the USA just yet. Not while there’s a bloke called Ron Paul around.

Ron Paul Revolution: greater evils & lesser evils versus not at all evil…

“People are accustomed to voting for the lesser of two evils. What happens when someone who is not evil shows up? Integrity is not generally an ingredient found in presidential elections and its presence here now changes the entire nature of the game. Ron Paul is not playing by the same rules as everyone else, and by playing by his own rules – by committing the political cardinal sin of meaning what he says – he changes the rules for everyone else. Candidates are now no longer measured against other politicians whose words mean nothing, but against a man of integrity, and in order to succeed they must rise to his level. But they can’t. A reputation earned in over thirty years of dealing with people is not something that can be bought. Nor can it be “spun” out of thin air. Quite simply: Ron Paul has something none of the other candidates have or can get in time for the elections. This fact alone could very possibly win him the Republican nomination and even the presidency.
I’ve always qualified my condemnation of politics and politicians with the words “except for Ron Paul.” I’d then usually say something like “but of course he doesn’t actually accomplish anything.” Well I was wrong about that. Really really wrong. For all these years, Dr. Paul has been building something no other politician has – something that when just one person has it, suddenly becomes an incredibly valuable asset: credibility. The question with regard to Ron Paul is not whether or not he will keep his campaign promises – he will. The only question is whether he will be able to accomplish what he has set out to. Will he be elected? And if he is, how far will he be able to get on his wish list of dismantling the leviathan state to which we have become so accustomed?”

Great piece on Ron Paul by Bretigne Shaffer and why indifference to politics is no longer an acceptable reason not to vote this time.

Comment:

I call this holographic thinking. [correction: I am reading that the right phrase for this is holonomic, but since my understanding of holograms is that of a layman, consider this purely an artistic use of the term. I intend it just to suggest how we might be limiting the way we think about things because of the unconscious models we have in our mind). You change the ingredients and the patterns in the smallest interaction and it generates bigger patterns that alter the whole picture in a way you couldn’t have predicted from the initial size of the change.

That’s the significance of the parable of the yeast and the bread…. and of the fish and the loaves.

You can’t always predict things in a linear way because reality is not linear.

Global games: scenarios for future shocks

“1) Supply Availability: Fossil fuel is not permanent panacea for our energy needs and it cannot be replenished. Various experts claim oil had “peaked” after the year 2000, and this contention is consistent with the current trajectory of oil prices. Royal Dutch Shell alone was forced to cut its reserve estimates five times in 2004 [1]. Major oil firms are desperately trying to boost flagging oil and gas production capacities and their quandary is exemplified by an over-reliance on moribund fields worldwide, a prominent one being the Ghawar wells in Saudi Arabia.

Oil is now being extracted from deeper sources through more expensive processes i.e. water injection. The price of oil will remain high.

Peak Oil is also called “Hubbert’s Peak,” named after Shell geologist Dr Marion King Hubbert. In 1956, Hubbert accurately predicted that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970 and that global production would peak in 1995. This would have transpired had the oil shocks of the 70s not delayed the peak for about 10-15 years.

2) Supply Stretch: Oil supply is so stretched that a concerted sabotage of two major pipelines in Russia or Saudi Arabia can precipitate pandemonium in the global economy. Hurricane Katrina, which, recently struck the oil producing Gulf Coast off the United States ratcheted oil to a record $70 per barrel. Major oil producing regions – Middle East, Central Asia, Russia and Venezuela – are bedeviled by terrorism and political volatility. Where stability exists, oil reserves are on a steep decline i.e. North America and the North Sea.

3) Environmental Factor: More hurricanes will ensue over the next few years in the Gulf Coast where most of the United States’ oil rigs and refineries are located. The “Atlantic multi-decadal mode” – where the “Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions conspire” every “20 to 40 years” to “produce just the right conditions to cause increased storm and hurricane activity”[2]- all point to a fragile energy climate ahead. This is a factor omitted by popular literature on the looming energy crisis.

4) Global Financial Crisis: The euro-zone countries hold over $200 billion in US securities while Asia holds $1 trillion or more. This is enough to sink the US economy, though foreign parties are well aware of the dangers of redeeming these securities too soon. US domestic and foreign deficits have reached historic proportions[3]. In a classic Catch-22 situation, US monopoly on oil is being countered by a foreign hoard of US securities. A global hedge fund and banking crisis is looming as well. Banks had “created capital during the cheap oil period by lending more than they had on deposit, being confident that Tomorrow’s Expansion, fueled by cheap oil-based energy, was adequate collateral for Today’s Debt. The decline of oil, the principal driver of economic growth, undermines the validity of that collateral which in turn erodes the valuation of most entities quoted on Stock Exchanges.” (Campbell)

5) Soaring Prices: Goldman Sachs, among other reputed financial establishments, have already alerted markets of a possible “superspike” of US$105 per barrel. More recent projections place it even higher. In June 2005, despite repeated market assurances, OPEC raised its band system to US$40-US$50 (Reuters, June 24 2005). This band system may be revised further in lieu of a smooth global supply, which are not on the horizon.

THEORY:

The research is informed by the following theoretical assumptions:

The high price of oil is battering national economies, though the full extent of this will be actualized in the coming months or years. Current oil supplies have been inked and hedged in advance, at lower costs, though the rising band systems (or baskets) are placing a strain on any negotiated deals. To avoid a global industrial meltdown, or an outright collapse, oil supplies may have to be renegotiated in favor of major industrial powers like India and China to keep a crucial part of the global commerce running. There might be a further shift of basic, crucial manufacturing to these countries.

Here is a regional breakdown of scenarios underpinned by this research’s theoretical assumptions:

China: If its vast industrial expanse is threatened by an acute energy shortage, it might seize the purportedly oil-rich Spratly Islands, a chain of reefs also claimed by Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan and the Philippines – all of whom are vested with greater legitimacy under the UN’s Law of Seas Convention. China’s recent moves to acquire Unocal, and even Exxon, hints at its desperation for oil. Further military escalations in the South China Sea are a distinct possibility to avert internal chaos. Taiwan may reunite with the mainland for economic reasons.

India: Now in a uniquely historical role to dictate terms to the West. Not only does it handle vital software infrastructure for MNCs, its call centers are crucial to international commerce. No other nation can produce call centers in such colossal numbers within a very short time. A shutdown of both – even for a day – will lead to financial mayhem. The linguistic edge India enjoys in terms of geopolitical power is largely ignored in international relations texts. Its industry is more service-oriented vis a vis China, and therefore less vulnerable to oil shocks.

Japan: Has been experimenting with alternative power sources for decades, some of which are already operational. Its military capabilities are limited.

Europe: Another region with a long tradition of experimentation with alternative energy. In a better position than most to weather an oil crisis.

South Korea: In a similar situation to Japan, but without a long track record of developing alternative power sources. Historically, it has resisted Chinese hegemony and might align itself to the US, even with a belligerent North Korea factored out.

Russia: Through its enormous reserves of oil and gas, Russia may aggrandize its geopolitical leverage in Europe. In the short-term, before a multifarious energy infrastructure is in place, the EU may have to make concessions to Russia.

Venezuela, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, North Africa and the Middle East: Has oil but no military capability to counter external threats.

Africa and South America: International Realism will leave little breathing space for these regions by virtue of their internal weaknesses.”

More by activist and researcher, Matthew Maawak.

Zora Neale Hurston on false liberalism..

“Led astray be leftists, who do not, however, admit they are pro-Kremlin, great numbers of uninformed persons believe that the perfect interpretation of term “liberal” is a person who desires greater Government control and Federal handouts…”

Zora Neale Hurston, one of the greatest African-American writers, was an individualist and libertarian who wrote out against both imperialism and communism…

Ron Paul Revolution: Boycott Glenn Beck

PETITION TO BOYCOTT GLENN BECK FOR CALLING RON PAUL FANS TERRORISTS
View Current SignaturesSign the Petition


To: Companies Supporting Glenn Beck We, the undersigned no longer wish to purchase any goods and/or services from companies that support Glenn Beck in any fashion due to his inaccurate and improper association of Ron Paul supporters with terrorists. As peace, and liberty loving individuals we are outraged to be classed among those who would use violence and terror to accomplish their social and political goals. As we are not individuals that would use violence or terror to accomplish our socio-political goals we are making the choice to abstain from purchasing any goods and/or services from companies including but not limited to:

http://www.lilly.com
http://www.ustrust.com
http://newscenter.verizon.com
http://www.geico.com
http://automobiles.honda.com
http://www.lunesta.com
http://www.garmin.com
http://www.schwabbank.com
http://www.josbank.com
https://secure.bayer.com
http://www10.americanexpress.com
http://www.llbean.com
http://www.tdameritrade.com
https://www.progressive.com
http://www.americaspower.org
http://www.lincoln.com
http://www.farmers.com
http://www.glassdoctor.com
http://www.walgreens.com

Until such a time that Glenn Beck publicly retracts his malicious and false statements regarding Ron Paul supporters.

Sincerely,

The Undersigned

View Current Signatures

Here’s an article describing the original smear.

Ron Paul Revolution: Huckabee on the Fair Tax – bandaid or surgery?

Huckabee is on FOX this morning discussing the Fair Tax – an across the board 23% sales tax at the retail level and NO income taxes (or taxes on dividends and capital gains).

More on this.

Update:

Well, I’m revisiting this. To begin with, I’m always a bit suspicious of anything which uses the word “fair” (like “fair trade” versus free trade). I see why people use those terms – to point out the managed nature of our current trade regime and the unfair nature of our tax structure. But the language has something a bit manipulative about it.

Of course, Tancredo and Hunter are also proposing the same thing, although the fair tax organization itself seems to have given its support to Huckabee. That’s been to the consternation of those who see his proposal as just a slick pitch that in Arkansas did nothing more than disguise tax hikes. Haven’t investigated all those claims, but here’s one libertarian review of the idea in its fundamentals:

“FairTax proponents are correct in their assessment of the Internal Revenue Code:

The current U.S. income tax code is widely regarded by just about everyone as unfair, complex, wasteful, confusing, and costly. Businesses and other organizations spend more than six billion hours each year complying with the federal tax code. Estimated compliance costs conservatively top $225 billion annually—costs that are ultimately embedded in retail prices paid by consumers.

The Internal Revenue Code cannot simply be “fixed,” which is amply demonstrated by more than 35 years of attempted tax code reform, each round resulting in yet more complexity and unrelenting, page-after-page mind-numbing verbiage (now exceeding 54,000 pages containing more than 2.8 million words).

AND

Because the FairTax is a consumption tax, Murray Rothbard’s conclusion about consumption taxes is apropos:

The consumption tax, on the other hand, can only be regarded as a payment for permission-to-live. It implies that a man will not be allowed to advance or even sustain his own life, unless he pays, off the top, a fee to the State for permission to do so. The consumption tax does not strike me, in its philosophical implications, as one whit more noble, or less presumptuous, than the income tax.”

That’s from Lawrence Vance at Mises.org.

I agree with Vance on at least one thing. If this were as a good proposal as it sounds, off the bat, Ron Paul would have been on board. Since he’s not, I have to have reservations…

Here’s Paul on the flat tax:

“I apply a very simple test to any proposal to overhaul the tax code: Does it reduce or eliminate an existing tax? If not, then it amounts to nothing more than a political shell game that pits taxpayers against each other in a lobbying scramble to make sure the other guy pays. True tax reform is as simple as cutting or eliminating taxes. No studies, panels, committees, or hearings are needed. When reform proposals seem complicated, they almost certainly don’t cut taxes. Congress should simply focus on cutting existing taxes and reducing spending, instead of complicated overhauls of the system.”

‘Nuff said. Like all Paul’s arguments, they are the highest level emergency surgery, the kind that saves life. No band-aids that let America bleed to death while the federal government waffles.

Goldman-opoly: Thain of NYSE, chief of Merrill Lynch, soon to be?

Over at Merrill Lynch we find another Goldman Sachs co–president, John Thain. Thain’s moving on up after rendering selfless public service to the NYSE, where he succeeded Dick Grasso. Apparently, he did some movin’ an’ shakin’ at the Big Board.

“Since taking over for his scandal-racked predecessor, Dick Grasso, in 2003, Thain has transformed what was once an insular, semi-private club into a modern, public corporation. He’s introduced technology that allows investors to trade stocks with zero human intervention, dropping the average execution time from about fifteen seconds to as little as 300 milliseconds. And thanks to a recent vote of confidence from the shareholders of Euronext, he’s on his way to taking the operation abroad.

“Wall Street had come to regard Grasso as a fast-talking Luddite who was rapidly turning the NYSE into a 46,000-square-foot museum, but his successor has reversed course. Thain has introduced more major changes in his three years as CEO than the Big Board underwent during its previous 211 years combined.

” But his tactics have raised eyebrows. “There was no due process,” says one floor critic. “We were completely blindsided.” One gets the impression that Thain, in his sober engineering way, has identified what he believes to be the optimal approach to these conflicts: Appear soothing and gracious to your interlocutors—then quietly undermine their cause.”

More at the New York magazine.

So, let’s see….

Who’s replacing the upwardly mobile Thain at the NYSE? That would be Duncan Niederauer, who just happens to be late of Goldman Sach’s equity division.

[That’s the same Goldman whose former co-CEO, Robert Rubin is now back at his old haunt, Citigroup – by popular request, no less].

So it’s here a Sachsman, there a Sachsman, everywhere a Sachsman..

Then again, Thain, the mild-mannered, has a resume just chequered with un-mild-mannered stuff.

Like his participation during his Goldman days in the coup that ousted John Corzine, then the firm’s CEO. Thain was once Corzine’s best buddy, until he formed a troika with John Thornton and Hank Paulson ( in his Goldman incarnation before he was loosed on the country’s treasury as Treas. Sec). The three cut Corzine’s throat.

Thain does seem to be a coup kinda guy, because the Grasso replacement at the NYSE was also a coup…. puppeteered by – guess who? – Hank Paulson. Grasso was ousted for accepting an excessively fat pay package, right?

But righteous Hank was the guy who okayed that pay-packet in the first place, before turning around and using that as the excuse to kick Grasso out and put a Goldman guy in . Set up, anyone?

(And here’s a quote: “Note also that the erasure of the line between commercial and investment banking and the loosening of regulations in 1999 coincided with the transformation of Goldman into a publicly traded firm and the shift of risk from partners to shareholders. The firm’s spectacular success was a creation of the easy money Robert Rubin and Stephen Friedman, along with Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan, lavished on the economy. The credit bubble that drove the dotcoms to Himalayan heights in the nineties simultaneously enabled the credit-hungry Goldman to create its own possible bubble – that of derivatives. In its quest to expand and tighten its grip on world markets, it was Goldman which invented many of these complex and fragile financial instruments, just as it was Goldman which pioneered nearly every other high-risk instrument that we associate with modern finance – everything from global debt offerings to electronic trading….” as I wrote in 2006 in a cover story for Money Week.

Of course, it’s not all fun and games being banker to the nation:

” Orin Kramer, chairman of the New Jersey State Investment Council and a close friend of Mr Corzine says life can sometimes be made more difficult for Goldman because of its ties to public life,” says the Financial Times.

Poor, poor things…

By the way, Orin Kramer is the big bucks hedge fund manager who’s backing Barack Obama’s run.

And the reason no one in the press is talking about GW’s admininstration being overrun by Goldman bankers is because they’re the same folks who overran the Clinton administration. That’s what Charles Geisst, a Wall Street historian and professor at Manhattan College says. He adds that the Goldman take over is happening at a time when no other bank or brokerage has any thing like the same clout:

Here’s a reminder of that clout from that same Financial Times piece:

Hank Paulson, the Treasury secretary and former Goldman chief executive; Reuben Jeffrey, a former Goldman managing partner who is the chief regulator of commodity futures and options trading; Joshua Bolten, White House chief of staff who served as a Goldman executive director; Robert Steel, the former Goldman vice-chairman who advises Mr Paulson on domestic finance; and Randall Fort, the ex-Goldman director of global security who advises Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state.”

Then there’s Bush’s working group on financial markets.

“The panel – which is composed of Mr Paulson, Mr Jeffrey, Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, and Christopher Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission – would be Mr Bush’s first port of call in the event of a financial crisis.

Mr Dudley would also play a crucial role in stabilising the markets in the event of a meltdown, as one of his predecessors, Peter Fisher, did following the near collapse of Long Term Capital Management, the hedge fund. The former executives will also be influential in issues ranging from the regulation of Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac, the housing giants, to tax policy, to how heavily the energy markets should be regulated; all issues that Goldman Sachs lobbies heavily on in Washington….”

Nice work if you can get it…

Update:

I should not fail to mention that in many circles, criticism of the big bankers is on its face “antisemitic” (how’s that for an antisemitic assumption, since a glance above will show that there are several non-Jewish names among them including Paulson, a Christian Scientist):

Thus this blog:

“But almost every anti-Semite worth his salt knows in his heart what the mention of banks in the same breath as the military-industrial complex conspiracy means: Jewish control of the financial destiny of this country.”

The writer goes on to ask:

“Banks get nowhere near the federal dollars that defense contractors get. Why include them?

(that’s the reasoning behind calling criticism of the bankers antisemitic).

Well, here’s what. It’s not only that the banks are subsidised – they’re also bailed out in a way defense contractors are not, and under the guise of protecting the economy. They’re also capable of manipulating all sorts of important elements of the economy – from the money supply to the level of stock trading.

And, anyway, who’s NOT criticizing the defense contractors? We’re on record with our endless complaints about Blackwater and its evangelical Christian CEO Eric Prince…as well as of Pat Robertson….and of Zbigniew Brzezinski…and of Condoleeza Rice….and Dick Cheney…and George Bush…..no one complained about anti-Christian rhetoric, did they?

No…I don’t recall it.

To some folks the only motivation for criticizing the financialization of the economy is antisemitism. It’s that easy. And these days it’s real easy to be antisemitic. You only have to criticize:

1. Big media

2. Big banks

3. Neocons.

4. Israel

5. Hollywood

All these are simply code words, we’re told, for “Jews.”

Now, let me ask – how antisemitic is an assumption that sweeping?

And here’s a criticism of Pat Buchanan on the same score:

“Seymour Martin Lipset, a professor of Public Policy at George Mason University, said Mr. Buchanan echoes this in his references to Jewish names, like those of Robert E. Rubin, the Treasury Secretary, Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the investment firm of Goldman-Sachs when criticizing Wall Street and big business.

“Whenever he picks on an institution that’s doing badly,” Mr. Lipset said, “he picks on a Jew, not on others.”

Now, in Buchanan’s case, I think it would be fair to say he’s sometimes guilty not of racism but of an ethnic chip on the shoulder. Still, there’s one problem with Lipset’s argument. The problem is that many of the big names in the banking business seem to be Jewish – if you wanted to look at it in that light (not that that means anything….a successful community is likely to be well represented at the head of any field in which its members work. Chinese dominate the private economy in Malaysia. Does noticing that make you an anti-Sinite?

As a matter of fact, their ethnicity is not very interesting to me. What matters is the cronyism, the possibility of affiliations that corrupt their responsibilities to this government, and their support for a more and more disastrous foreign policy and an equally disastrous domestic regime of double-speak and covert censorship. They could be Chinese or Mexicans or Anglos – it wouldn’t matter.

Picking on Goldman Sachs is also not antisemitic, because The Firm happens to be the most politically connected of all banks now (incredibly so). It’s quite easily the most influential bank in US history from the early 1920s.

 

Millionaire and billionaire crooks can become ethnic victims too, don’t get me wrong. A chauvinistic prosecutor might target one banking crook rather than another….

But Goldman Sachs has been playing the system for all its worth for decades – if not longer. They were heavily involved in the Ponzi schemes that led to the Great Crash of 1929.

Crying antisemitism when people call them on it, is about as plausible as Lorena Bobbitt invoking misogyny to excuse her facility with carving knives or Michael Jackson crying race when he got caught in his kiddie-krimes. …

And MJ seems to have had some excuse…

 

 

 

Dollar Decline: India prefers rupee to dollar from tourists

November 17, 2007

The Ministry of Culture has begun insisting that tourists visiting the country’s monuments, including the Taj Mahal, pay the entrance fees in rupees rather than in dollars. Entrance to many sites for foreign tourists is priced in dollars and then converted to rupees, but the ministry has been losing tourism revenue as the dollar slid more than 12 percent this year against the rupee. The government had fixed a $5 entrance fee for World Heritage sites like the Taj Mahal and Humayun’s Tomb and $2 for other monuments at a time when the dollar was worth about 50 rupees. It is now worth around 39 rupees. The new rate for Heritage sites is 250 rupees, meaning a foreign tourist will pay the equivalent of about $6.50.

Meanwhile, the Kingdom warns of trouble to come:

“The dollar could collapse if Opec officially admits considering changing the pricing of oil into alternative currencies such as the euro, the Saudi Arabian foreign minister has warned.

Prince Saud Al-Faisal was overheard ruling out a proposal from Iran and Venezuela to discuss pricing crude in a private meeting at the oil cartel’s conference.

In an embarrassing blunder at the meeting in Riyadh, ministers’ microphones were not cut off during a key closed meeting, and Prince Al-Faisal was heard saying: “My feeling is that the mere mention that the Opec countries are studying the issue of the dollar is itself going to have an impact that endangers the interests of the countries. “There will be journalists who will seize on this point and we don’t want the dollar to collapse instead of doing something good for Opec.”

More at The Business.

Strike at the root: fix the pipes or fix the pipe-dream?

“It came as a shock to me that India’s cities have more water than most cities in the world. Delhi has 300 litres per person per day of treated water compared to Paris with 150 or London with 171. Then why do people in Paris and London get water 24 hours a day while Delhi’s residents get it only for four? Gauhati sits on the Brahmaputra River but people get water for only two hours. The poor in our cities have to depend on tankers. When the tanker is late there is a scramble and even a riot. Recently, a tanker driver fearing for his life took off at a high speed, and a child died in the chaos.

Because water comes intermittently, Indians have to store it. Storage tanks cost money and are not cleaned regularly. This brings disease. Since water pipes are not under continuous pressure, they get broken when pressure is released–it’s called the ‘hammer effect’. Vacuum also develops in the pipe, and ground and sewage water enters through the cracks, thereby contaminating drinking water. It takes 90 minutes to re-pressure, dump the contaminated water, and lots of clean water is thus wasted.
Everyone has a diagnosis. Delhi’s Jal Board says that 40% of its water is stolen. Its zonal engineers want more pipes and infrastructure. (Lucrative contracts bring prosperity to engineers.) Economists say that Paris charges properly for its water; hence Parisians don’t waste it. Delhi’s water charges are so low that there is little incentive to conserve. Besides, low tariffs help mainly the rich because the poor don’t have taps. All these facts are true but the main problem is the Delhi Jal Board. It is a fiefdom of politicians with 20,000 employees when it should have 5000. It doesn’t meter properly, encourages theft, and is not accountable to customers.

Delhi’s government, to its credit, recognised the problem and decided to fix it. It tried to insulate the Jal Board from politicians and test a plan to give water 24 hours a day in two out of its 22 zones. It offered management contracts to experts, who would motivate Jal Board employees to reduce theft, extend taps to poor areas, and be responsive to customers. It also decided to take a loan from the World Bank for this project. This is when its problems started. A well meaning but ideological NGO, Parivartan, claimed that the process of hiring consultants was manipulated. It raised the fears of privatization, mobilized public opinion, and killed the reform. With it died the prospect of 24 hour water for Delhi.

The Greeks were suspicious of democracy. They felt that people often made bad decisions that went against their interest. People could be manipulated by demagogues and vested interests. In this story, vested interests were the local politicians, bureaucrats and Jal Board employees. They manipulated Parivartan to become their demagogue. They scared Delhi’s people and a workable reform failed. Sad, indeed, for it kills 24×7 water in other Indian cities as well.

The lesson from this sad story is that it is not easy to reform in a democracy. Reformers have to win over the people when they change institutions. If Sheila Dikshit had worked as hard to “sell” this reform as she had to conceive it, she might have saved it. We are facing another summer of water and power shortages and politicians have begun to make ridiculous promises. The answer is “not to fix the pipes, but to fix the institutions that fix the pipes.”

More by Gurcharan Das at the Center for Civil Society.