Ground Hog Ben: Fed Declares Depression Over…

I expanded an earlier post into a diatribe:

That’s it folks. Wrap it up. This here recession…er.. correction…er.. depress…oh, whatever..is over. Time to put away your pens and papers, boys and girls.

Professor Bernanke says there’s going to be no test. You hear that? Or maybe, there’ll be one little teeny-weeny take-home. Better yet, you just get to write in and ask for whatever grade you want.

Billy Gross, Bobby Rubin, and Jamie Dimon, you boys get A’s, as usual.

(The rest of you clods better learn to to suck up if you want A’s).

Everyone else gets B’s….

No one fails. Ain’t life great?

Whew. That depression stuff was so, well, depressing. Glad it’s over.

There. That wasn’t so bad, after all, was it, seeing as how it was supposed to be the worst one in half-a-century and the sky was falling and we were all going to live in the Ozarks or Patagonia on canned peas and raw mackerel until we got raptured up… and really all that happened was some green paper got printed and we had to listen to a lot of speeches about schools an’ stuff in Barackistani (not as weird a lingo as Bushlish, but just as daft) and then, bingo, everything’s back to normal again.

Yessir. The economy is healthy. Grade A, certified organic, flu-vaccinated healthy. A bit weak. But wholesome. Except for jobs, that is. No jobs.

What kind of recovery is that, you ask?

What kind? It’s the new deadbeat, can’t-get-a job, rocketing-inflation, trashed-currency, can’t-sell-my-house, can’t-make-my-payments, bankrupt-mafia-government, kazillions-in-debt, trade-warring-with-China recovery – that’s what it is. Glad you asked.

It’s kind of a new thing. No one’s really tried it so far, but they’re doing it in Europe, we hear. And maybe a bit of it in Asia. But it’s back here in the US of A that we’ve got the whole thing down. Right here in Washington. And from now until the economy gets really going, we’ll be getting the full Bernanke on it – at least, that’s the buzz.

Yep. Professor Ben’s all but promised us he’s going to be inflating grades all around this time.

No F’s. No D’s. Heck, no C’s. It’s A’s and B’s all the way. That’s the way they do it in Princeton. It’s a self-esteem thing.

 Like that pep talk back on March 16, when Ben first spotted those green shoots. Now it’s September15 (exactly six months later), and Ben says the recession is over.

He says it’s all in the numbers from the National Bureau of Economic Research. The numbers say the recession ended this summer or fall. Man, the things they can predict these days.

Ole Ground Hog Ben. Puts his head out and the sun comes up. Amazing. Who knew you could even keep score of an economy?

Kind of like a lacrosse game at Princeton. Swat. Swat. Swat Take that, Harvard.

Of course, being a Princeton professor and religious and a pretty nice guy from all we’ve heard, Ben couldn’t bring himself to tell an outright whopper. He let the truth out dribble-drabble at the end.

Something about “impaired credit”…. and “head winds”…. and “digging out from personal debt”…. and “ongoing adjustments”….. and “unwinding massive stimulus efforts”…. and “risking igniting inflation”…. and “lingering high unemployment”…. and “sluggish outlook”…. and “higher gas prices” and…. “consumer reluctance”…. and “widespread job insecurity”…. and “significantly impaired credit”…. and “less lending”…. and “higher costs”…. and “deep freeze in credit”…. and “fearing defaults.”

But they put that way down in the report, after paragraph 5 (“Bernanke: Recession is Over,” Kansas City Star, Sept 15, 2009).

Before that, they just had him muttering something about the economy “underperforming”. ‘ Yeah, underperforming. Like the old geezer just needs a shot of Viagra.

But don’t let any of that bad stuff worry your little head, ’cause you know, the numbers say we’re okay. The numbers say the recession…er correction..er depress…oh, whatever…is over.

And numbers don’t lie, you know.

Like August retail sales. That went up by 2.7% over July. (I know, I know, cash-for-clunkers, high gas prices, blah blah blah. Gimme a break. It was still up wasn’t it?)

And the ISM numbers are good too.

August PMI (Purchasing Manufacturers Index) came in at at 52.9, 4 percent points higher than July.

(A number over 50 indicates an expanding economy. Below 50 is a contracting economy. This is the first time since June 2007 that the number’s been over 50).

Oh you don’t say!

And New Orders came in at the highest reading since December 2004. You know what that means. Businesses are stocking up. GDP is on it’s way up.

Woo-hoo

. Ride that gravy train.Ka-ching! Bada boom!

Hold just a moment though.

What’s this Non-Manufacturing Index stuff here?

Oh, you mean those bozos in medicine and law and teaching and real estate and construction and finance and retail?

Yeah, consumers. You know, guys who consume stuff. That stuff the manufacturing guys are producing. Seems like they still aren’t doing so good. So who’s going to buy all the stuff?

Not consumers. They’re cutting back.

You don’t know? That’s what comes of being a grade-inflated B student.

I bet Bob Rubin knows. And Jamie Dimon. And Bill Gross. And Warren Buffett.

And all their hedge-fund managing, private-equity-directing, leveraged-buying-out, sovereign-wealthy speculator buddies lining up to start the casino all over again. 

They know whose money they’re using to do it too.

Hey, Professor Bernanke. Can we see you outside class? We have some questions….
 

 

Note:

The indicators that are looking positive (ISM number, retails sales, the price of copper) are all numbers that could reflect no more than

1. The business cycle restocking of inventories 2. Cash for clunkers 3. The beginning of the school year 4. State purchases/investments being made by China in an effort to get rid of dollars

17 thoughts on “Ground Hog Ben: Fed Declares Depression Over…

  1. Subject: Great Article!!!!
    From: “Lee Sutterfield”
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 1:18 pm
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
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  2. Subject: What Recession
    From: “tim c”
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 1:53 pm
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
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    Dear Ms. Rajiva,

    Is there anyone left who believes a single word the elites have to say?

    Back in the good old days when Joe Stalin ran the Soviet Union there was a class of
    crimes known as “economic crime”. If you cause a mine roof to collapse you would
    be shot. Run a locomotive too hard and blow up the boiler , You would be shot. Miss
    your quota of cabbages, sorry time to go.

    I can only imagine what the result would have been, if Goldman Sachs had a
    branch in Moscow during those golden years. Comrade Stalin would have probably
    stroked out and the executioners at the Lubiyanka would have thought themselves
    sorely used when Goldman demanded a bailout.

    I for one will never invest in another equity or five star mutual fund. I will
    never buy a new automobile. But I would like the opportunity to invest what little
    money I have left in a derivative based on the salaries of Goldman Sachs top 100
    executives. Even thought I have no understanding of the machinations of the
    derivative market , and, I probably have no way of accessing this market, I would
    be willing to offer my personal absolution to those wonderful people who did all
    they could to tank the economy and pull he rug out from under those baby boomers who
    thought by doing without and making conservative investments they would be safe.

    However, if this cannot occur, I will be glad to sit on the jury of some people’s
    court than will provide similar justice to Goldman, Wells Fargo and Bank America
    that was afforded Nicolae Ceausescu.

    Regards,
    Tim Connell

  3. Subject: Want to get associated to your initiative
    From: “Yogeshwar G
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 1:17 pm
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    Hi Lila,

    Just checked your article (Ground Hog Ben: Fed Declares Depression Over) on
    lewrockwell.com. It prompted me to read on your earlier article on swine
    flu. All of that was a great read. It took me to your website
    mindbodypolitic wherein you had called for Indian investors for few projects
    you want to initiate. I am very interested on all the world affairs and as
    well worried about rising food prices, swine flu et al.,

    Warm Regards

    Yogeshwar G

  4. Blankfein was busy,so he his sent sidekick…………….
    From: “Paul Whalen”
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 7:23 am
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
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    Prof. Ben reports the Department Head…..

    Fine piece in Rockwell today

  5. Comment on Bernanke Article
    From: “Michael G
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 7:59 am
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    Lila,

    After reading your article “Ground Hog Ben” on LewRockwell.com today and
    seeing your picture, I have just one question: Will you marry me?!

    Seriously, though, that was a great article.

    Mike G

  6. Ole Ground Hog Ben.
    From: “Pam L”
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 12:14 pm
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    Awesome article!

    P L

    “If you want to know who is going to change this country, go home and look in the
    mirror.”
    – Maude Barlow

  7. Subject: “Ground Hog Ben: Fed Declares Depression Over”
    From: “M. B. Moon”
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 12:58 pm
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    Lila,

    “Of course, being a Princeton professor and religious and a pretty nice
    guy from all we’ve heard, Ben couldn’t bring himself to tell an
    outright whopper. ” you

    Ben is religious? What part of “Thou shall not steal” (presumably even
    by fractional reserve banking) does he not get?

    The whole point of fractional reserve banking in a monopoly money is to
    steal purchasing power from all money holders for the sake of banks and
    borrowers. That is why we have legal tender laws so we can’t escape.

    Am I wrong or is Ben insane or a hypocrite?

    Thanks for the article. I assumed all Jewish Central bankers had to be
    atheists to practice their trade. My mind is boggled.

    best regards,

    MB

    PS

    Is ground hog kosher?

  8. Subject: Re: What Recession
    From: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 1:59 pm
    To: “tim c”
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    Tim

    economic crimes should be included in crimes against humanity..
    and if you want a safe investment get invested in goldman’s piece of the
    cap and trade market
    that will be big..

    who knows what will happen..

  9. Subject: Re: What Recession
    From: “tim c”
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 2:35 pm
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    “if you want a safe investment get invested in goldman’s piece of the
    cap and trade market.”

    I’m sure that is wise advice, but I’m hoping that cap and trade never
    passes. That would leave me in commodity and currency trading which would
    mean getting up in the middle of the night to check the Swiss Franc or
    Nigerian cocoa. I am currently in short term Fed funds which pay nothing. I
    am expecting Weimar style hyper-inflation. I should have been born twenty
    years before 1941 or twenty years later. If I had been twenty years before
    I would probably be dead. Twenty years later I would still be working and
    might be able to recoup my loses.

    Oh yes, by the way, let me thank you for your response. I am sorry I am
    not your student. I sense you are truly a gifted teacher.

  10. Subject: Re: “Ground Hog Ben: Fed Declares Depression Over”
    From: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 1:16 pm
    To: “M. B. Moon”
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    I am sure he thinks it’s for the greater good..
    and stealing from saver’s is only bad if you think saving is a good
    thing..but I think demand side economists see savers as evil…

  11. Subject: Re: “Ground Hog Ben: Fed Declares Depression Over”
    From: “M. B. Moon”
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 1:47 pm
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    Lila,

    That makes sense. Solomon apparently thought the rules were for
    someone else too. But there are also commands to not oppress the
    poor. I’m glad not to be Ben since the poor are in for a hard time
    thanks to central bankers.

    Still, the Lord exists and He owns the future; so who knows?

    Thanks,

  12. Subject: 86 percent in US believe recession continues: poll | AlterNet-
    From: “Paul Whalen”
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 8:23 am
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com (more)
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    http://www.alternet.org/rss/breaking_news/90730/86_percent_in_us_believe_rec
    ession_continues%3A_poll/

    “Recessions over”- brought to you by the same guy who said “Bubble?I don’t
    see no stinkin’ Bubble!”

  13. It’s over? Funny, Greenshoots, I mean Greenspan told us how it was nearly impossible to detect a bubble. Then it takes eight months or so to determine that we’re actually in a recession, but two months after some partially positive economic data, Uncle Ben can tell us the recession is over.
    This from a guy who says ‘many people consider the Federal Reserve to be the most important branch of the federal government.’ Okay, he didn’t say it, but it is written in the econ college textbook he co-authored. I would assume he handled writing the chapter on the Fed.
    He’s a liar, and he’s part of the problem rather than the solution.

  14. Subject: Re: ground hog ben
    From: “ed sm”
    Date: Fri, September 18, 2009 8:28 am
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    You see what’s going on and I can feel your frustration. But at some
    point, do you ever get to feeling that the folks in charge are gonna do
    what they do and that sounding the warning isn’t gonna stop them? As I
    read your columns and blog, it seems that there’s an edge of desperation
    beginning to creep into your voice (if edges creep), and I began to
    wonder if you feel you might be banging your head against a wall. You
    wrote a few columns about looking south of the border for a new home.
    Some friends are doing just that. Me, I’m dusting off my Spanish tan
    rapido que es possible.

    Ed Smith

  15. Subject: Re: Lew Rockwell Today
    From: “Gadget42”
    Date: Thu, September 17, 2009 7:20 am
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    —–BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE—–
    Hash: SHA1

    Splendidly Excellent!

    (as usual)

    lol

    – —
    Brothers and Sisters in Liberty, Sons and Daughters of Liberty!

    Sincerely,
    Rob

    http://www.starvingthemonkeys.com/

    http://voluntaryist.com/fundamentals/introduction.php

    Atlas Shrugged, Owner’s Manual For The Universe!(tm)

    ________________________________________________________________

    Tip of the Day:
    “The Philosophical Maturity found as a Student and Advocate of the Non-Aggression
    Principle is so simple it’s almost too
    good to be true. When one begins to understand that each person is an Individual
    Sovereign Human Being with Basic
    Inherent Inalienable Irrevocable Human Rights the world as we know it is cast in a
    totally new illumination. Much the
    same as we acknowledge blue, red, and yellow as the primary colors, we also
    acknowledge the Right to Life, the Right to
    Liberty, and the Right to Property as our primary basic human rights.”

    Read Atlas Shrugged Today!

  16. Subject: Ground Hog Ben: Fed Declares Depression Over
    From: “Ferdinand H” Date: Sat, September 26, 2009 8:29 am
    To: lilarajiva@mindbodypolitic.com
    Priority: Normal
    Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version | Download this as a file

    Dear Ms.Rajiva,

    I very much enjoyed reading your brilliant article. I love your sarcastic language
    that accurately uncovers the lies and the smoke grenades of the politicos, banksters
    and their media. Please carry on!

    Best regards
    Ferdinand A.H, Sweden

    FAH

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