Goldman Games: Massaging the Numbers

In the news:

“Goldman Sachs, the most profitable Wall Street firm before it converted to a bank last year and posted its first quarterly loss since going public in 1999, said yesterday it earned $3.39 a share, in the first quarter. A surge in trading revenue outweighed asset writedowns, and the result beat the $1.64 estimate of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.”

More here at Bloomberg.

My Comment

“Beating expectations”  has turned into a short-sighted game of bluff. Companies deliberately underestimate earnings so they can beat analyst estimates. That gives them a temporary boost for the quarter that’s entirely misleading.

The point of all this tarting up on the part of the firm was to boost it enough to raise capital to repay some ($10 billion) of its TARP debt. Why? Because GS doesn’t want to abide by TARP limits on compensation.

But even so, debt with FDIC backing is more “attractive,” according to CFO David Viniar. You see, the FDIC backing won’t require caps on compensation.

In other words, TARP or no, as far as the public recouping anything for taking the risk, it’s heads we win, tails you lose.

Meanwhile the share price on the new capital fell by 12% on anxiety that the first quarter results weren’t sustainable.

What’s also interesting is that Goldman also changed its financial calendar to include December in the results of the previous quarter….

Hmm.  Can YOU do that with the IRS?

Here’s more on GS’s move.

March Madness in 2009….and in 1939

From a recent piece at Lew Rockwell,  Nightmare on Wall Street

March Madness

Insurance giant AIG, already rescued by the public, comes back for more. The bill now totals almost $200 billion, nearly half of which goes to foreign banks, including the very banks that shaped government policy on the bank bail-out, a criminal conflict of interest.

  1. China and the US face off over US surveillance in Chinese waters, as well as over Chinese currency pegging
  2. The Bernie Madoff investigation reveals that family and friends of the ex-Nasdaq chief connived in his fraud, which prosecutors charge, has been going on since the 1980s. Money-laundering through an English bank is part of it.
  3. After three rescues, Citigroup ends up trading at around $1 and needing another round of government aid. That brings the government’s total commitment to Citi to over $300 billion.
  4. Net capital flows to the US turn negative, auto sales fall sharply, and pension-funding shortfalls are destroying company balance sheets.
  5. The Fed Reserve commits to buy $300 billion in Treasuries (creating $1 trillion in new money). The bond market reacts positively. But, in what seems like a warning from the other side of the Atlantic, when the Bank of England tries to auction British bonds, it fails to find enough buyers for the first time in seven years. The market is signaling its belief that the UK government is effectively bankrupt.
  6. Upward pressure on LIBOR, the London interbank offer rate, continues relentlessly. This is a measure of the willingness of banks to lend to each other and it’s showing severe credit market stress…..

*******

and,

“As reports about the AIG deal circulate and stir up public anger, the USNS Impeccable, a survey ship (read, spy-ship) faces off with Chinese ships in what the US claims are international waters off Hainan island. But the encounter is also within 200 miles of the Chinese coast, a zone China considers its exclusive economic zone. Hainan is also a key strategic base in the South China Sea and the location of China’s biggest submarine base. This comes just days after US military talks with China resume.

The US claims it’s a Chinese provocation, although it’s hard to believe that a Chinese spy ship snooping around Americans coasts would be greeted with brotherly love. It seems more likely to be a US provocation.

Notice that the incident reinforces Barack Obama’s provocative warnings to the Chinese about currency manipulation during the presidential campaign. Obama was apparently playing to the part of his base that is China-hawkish and protectionist. Notice that this is also a neo-conservative position, as human rights interventionists (let’s call them liberventionists) would like to see a tougher US posture in places like China and Darfur.

In short, the big government wing in both parties likes the “Chinese currency manipulation” motif……”

And in a recent piece at Lew Rockwell and Human Events,  Pat Buchanan writes:

 March Madness in 1939

Made a fool of by Hitler, baited by his backbenchers, goaded by Lord Halifax, facing a vote of no confidence, on March 31, 1939, Chamberlain made the greatest blunder in British diplomatic history. He handed an unsolicited war guarantee to the Polish colonels who had just bitten off a chunk of Czechoslovakia. Lunacy, raged Lloyd George, who was echoed by British leaders and almost every historian since.

With the British Empire behind it, Warsaw now refused even to discuss a return of Danzig, the Baltic town, 95 percent German, which even Chamberlain thought should be returned.

Hitler did not want a war with Poland. Had he wanted war, he would have demanded the return of the entire Polish Corridor taken from Germany in 1919. He wanted Danzig back and Poland as an ally in his anti-Comintern Pact. Nor did he want war with a Britain he admired and always saw as a natural ally.

Nor did he want war with France, or he would have demanded the return of Alsace.

But Hitler was out on a limb with Danzig and could not crawl back.

Repeatedly, Hitler tried to negotiate Danzig. Repeatedly, the Poles rebuffed him. Seeing the Allies courting Josef Stalin, Hitler decided to cut his own deal with the detested Bolsheviks and settle the Polish issue by force.

Though Britain had no plans to aid Poland, no intention of aiding Poland and would do nothing to aid Poland – Churchill would cede half that nation to Stalin and the other half to Stalin’s stooges – Britain declared war for Poland.

The most awful war in all of history followed, which would bankrupt Britain, bring down her empire and bring Stalin’s Red Army into Prague, Berlin and Vienna. But Hitler was dead and Germany in ashes….”

My Comment

In an earlier piece,  Nationalization In a Time of Monopoly, I noted the ominous end game in which we’re finding ourselves:

“First, it [the state] creates debt everywhere until the capital base of the economy is destroyed and production is in tatters. Banks become bankrupt, except for those that have government connections and can consolidate. The monopolies have nothing to restrain their anti-market behavior and push their own agendas in concert with the state. With no limit to cheap credit, the money supply swells. Workers can no longer keep up with inflation. The lopsided development of the state sector crushes savings and production in the remainder of the economy. Jobs dwindle.

To supplement them, the corporate-state creates make-work programs on the domestic front. When bad times and discontent persist, it looks abroad.

Then comes war.

That is where nationalization in a time of monopoly will take us.” (Lew Rockwell, March, 2009)

*******

That warning cannot be emphasize enough. We meddle further at our own peril.
Beware any further ceding of power to the government.

Before any more doing  –  undo, undo, undo.

Or , as Buchanan shows in his gripping time-line, when this end game rolls out, we will find that even countries that do not want war with us now,  will be forced into it.

Kevin Duffy On The Wall Street Shuffle, March 23

Kevin Duffy of Bearing Asset Mgt., a contributor to Lew Rockwell, and a non-interventionist on the bail-out will be a guest this afternoon on “The Wall Street Shuffle,” hosted by Dan Kofal and Ed Butowski, from 5:30-5:58 pm EST.  The show is anti-bailout so they should be open to a non-interventionist view of the financial crisis. 

  www.thewallstreetshuffle.com. 

[Added on August 5, 2017. My security software gives a malware alert for this link. I have removed the link. Please retype it into your browser to reach the site.]

Click on “Listen Live.”  It may work on Firefox, but it definitely works on Explorer.

 

Helicopter Ben Drops A Money Bomb

 Peter Grant notes that the currency markets were taken by surprise and anticipates global debt monetization and currency depreciation (expected but not so soon and so fast):

“The Fed did indeed announce that it would seek to buy up to an additional $750 bln in MBS, bringing the total projected purchases of such assets up to $1.25 trl. They also announced that they would buy up to an additional $100 bln in agency debt, bringing that total up to $200 bln. On top of all that, the FOMC decided that late next week the Fed would begin purchasing up to $300 bln in longer-term Treasuries, with emphasis on the 2 to 10-year segment of the yield curve. Purchases will be conducted by primary dealers two to three times per week through competitive auctions….”

Karl Denninger warns that the bond market will sell into the purchase:

The BOE executed their first “QE” operation today.The “bid to cover” was an astonishing 7.35 This means that for every bond purchased 7.35 were tendered, or made available by willing sellers……the BOE now has seen exactly what happens when you promise as a government to overpay for something – everyone hits your bid immediately!”

Meanwhile, Boris Schlossberg notes that the bond market here has so far accepted the stunning move with yields on the 10 year bond falling by 50 basis points in 24 hours, while the dollar  collapsed across the board. He explains Bernanke’s decision as reflecting the fact that foreign capital flows are going to be hard to sustain (i.e. the Chinese aren’t going to be buying treasuries for much longer).

Greenspan Eggs On World War IV: China Versus US

Some more blows in the ongoing World War IV, known as the War on Terror to the masses. WW IV was always about the perception of the US (and the Anglosphere in general) that the growing economies of China, and to a lesser extent India, posed a threat to access to world resources. The War on Terror was simply a pretext to establish bases from which WW IV could proceed at a more comfortable pace.

Thus Alan Greenspan’s recent piece in the Wall Street Journal, blaming Asia, especially China, for the US housing bubble:

“The result was a surge in growth in China and a large number of other emerging market economies that led to an excess of global intended savings relative to intended capital investment. That ex ante excess of savings propelled global long-term interest rates progressively lower between early 2000 and 2005. That decline in long-term interest rates across a wide spectrum of countries statistically explains, and is the most likely major cause of, real-estate capitalization rates that declined and converged across the globe, resulting in the global housing price bubble…”

Read this along with remarks by Tim Geithner in the Obama administration that China was manipulating the yuan to help its exports ( a sentiment also voiced by Obama during the elections).

That’s the perspective from which the little fracas (actually it’s the biggest fracas between China and the US since 2001) in the South China Sea should be seen. The USNS Impeccable – a civilian ship under Navy control – was apparently conducting surveillance in what it claims was international waters (where US doctrine insists on international freedom to move) but within the 200 mile zone in which Chinese economic control obtains. Chinese vessels came within 25 feet of the US ship which sprayed them with water, and then left.

This  week China will also be unveiling plans for an increase of 15% in its defense spending, including expansion of its naval capacity.

UK Banks Now Owned By Government

The public’s portfolio

What the taxpayer owns

Northern Rock – 100% state owned

Bradford & Bingley – mortgage book worth £50 billion

Royal Bank of Scotland – 75% of voting shares

Lloyds Banking Group (including HBOS)– up to 77% of voting shares

HSBC, Barclays, Abbey National and Nationwide are the main high street institutions still in private hands

How yesterday’s Lloyds deal hands us the keys to British business

Both Lloyds and HBOS have been very acquisitive in private equity investment over the past decade, entering into partnerships which mean they part-own – or rather, we do – a string of household names.

They include: House of Fraser, department stores McCarthy & Stone, housebuilder HSS Hire, tool hire chain Vue, cinema chain Crest Nicholson, housebuilder Alternative Hotel Group MacDonald Hotels David Lloyd Leisure, fitness clubs American Golf, sports goods St Tropez, beauty products Robinia, specialist care homes Leasedrive Velo, car fleet hire Kidsunlimited, day nurseries British Salt, salt products producer Snell & Wilcox, broadcasting technology GVA Grimley, property consultant

 Times Online

GenV Entrepreneurs Light Up Indian Village

“One of the biggest problems faced by Indian villages is scarce electricity to power light bulbs. Electricity is provided only for a very few hours and only during day time. Hence, children are unable to study at night and have to resort to using lanterns, which can contribute to pollution related ailments.

To provide a solution, we came up with an idea of using tractor batteries as an energy source to light 9-12W CFLs. At night, the tractors are not used and they can be used to light CFLs.

One-twelfth of the battery is consumed to use 1 CFL for 4 hours. The tractor’s battery then gets recharged during day time when it runs on the fields or is used for other agricultural purposes. Thus, the net is that we are not consuming any additional power to light up the CFLs on the days that the tractor is used.

We implemented this idea successfully in 17 homes in our village and this was of great help to the students. The whole setup cost was INR 135 (for wires, DC CFL and circuit board).

The advantages of this system are:

  1. Reduction of pollution by using CFLs instead of bulbs and lanterns: 240,000 liters of CO2 per month and 2,450,000 kJ of heat per month.
  2. Improvement in academic performance of students.
  3. Better health for users by reducing Asthma, ENT and Eye problems.
  4. Cost Savings for farmers and rural students, and for the Government.
  5. Increased lifespan of tractor battery.”

Shailesh Upadhyay and Ujala Shankar
More here at GenV Campaigns.

Nationalization In a Time of Monopoly

My piece on nationalization was published on Lew Rockwell:

“The witchdoctors are rattling their bones and spitting into their potions. Frogs’ legs, squawks one. Eye of newt, cries another.

The right blames Fanny and Freddy for setting off the financial tsunami. Naomi Klein says it’s the Chicago boys and capitalism.

The left denounces private sector greed. The right, public sector do-gooding.

Overpaid CEOs, overdrawn borrowers, underestimated risk. There’s enough blame to go around.

The only problem is that a half-baked understanding of a problem leads to half-baked remedies. And half-baked remedies are worse than no remedy at all.

Nationalization is the cry now. Nobel winner Paul Krugman at the New York Times says it’s as American as apple pie. I daresay that’s the first time Krugman ever appealed to tradition to sell anything.

Even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke floated it recently, and then backed off, when the market tanked in response. But by now we know that our rulers speak not just from both sides of their mouth, but out of both mouths of their two-faced tyranny…and from its derrière too. We can confidently predict that in the days ahead Republicans and Democrats, private and public sectors will join the breadline for nationalization

Now, in a different country, in a different context, nationalization might make sense. But trotting out Sweden’s history as a model for the U.S. is disingenuous. Sweden is about one-twentieth the size of the US and it has around one-thirtieth of the population. It’s not an empire with a vast portion of its economy dependent on its defense department. And it’s also one of the least corrupt and peaceable countries in the world, by standard measures.

Knowing exactly how corrupt this system is, how deceptive, and how out of control, we would be fools to place our faith in nationalization in America. Or in any other panacea pushed by the state. None of them stands any chance of being anything more than a change of label, a PR facelift. A jackass in a wig and stilettos can kick all it wants, it won’t turn into a chorus girl.

Only the Austrians so far seem to grasp this and only the Austrians seem to understand the underlying problem – which is money. Money backed by nothing tends toward nothing. But there is more to it. The cheapening of money, its lack of intrinsic worth is only an effect, not a cause. The cause lies deeper – in the unconstrained power of the government to print money. The source of corruption is this absolute power.

It’s because the US mint alone can print legal money that money has lost its link to real value and become rapidly cheapening paper. The monopoly of money, you could say, has given us toy dollars, monopoly money…….

Read the rest at Lew Rockwell.

March 2, 2009

Krugman Floats Capital Controls

Paul Krugman writes:

“Catching up on my Willem Buiter, I find this interesting piece on capital controls in the response to the European crisis, which begins:

When Iceland’s banking system and currency collapsed last September, a key component of the emergency package that was introduced under the auspices of the IMF were controls on capital outflows, implemented through rigorous foreign exchange controls.

I have a bit of personal history here — and it has some bearing on broader economic policy issues right now. Back in 1998, in the midst of the Asian financial crisis, I came out in favor of temporary capital controls; a bit about that here. At the time it was regarded as a horribly unorthodox and irresponsible suggestion — and I had a long, very unpleasant phone conversation with a Senior Administration Official who berated me for my anti-market ideas.

Today, that wild and crazy idea is so orthodox it’s part of standard IMF policy.

There are obvious parallels with the current debate over bank nationalization….”

Paul Krugman’s Conscience of a Liberal Blog, March 2, 2009

Comment:
Run for cover…here it comes

Obama: Yes to Banksters, No to Haitian Refugees

“BBC called the situation “eye-popping,” and the Miami Herald said it was “the worst humanitarian disaster (for) Haiti in 100 years” leaving:

— Gonaives, Haiti’s third largest city, uninhabitable;

— most of the nation’s livestock and food crops destroyed as well as farm tools and seeds for replanting;

— irrigation systems demolished;

— collapsed buildings throughout the country; 23,000 houses destroyed; another 85,000 damaged; 964 schools destroyed or damaged;

— conservatively about $1 billion in storm damage;

— the threat of famine, especially for children and the elderly;

— 2.3 million Haitians facing “food insecurity,” according to USAID, reeling under 40% higher prices than in January;

— inadequate sanitation and clean water;

— the widespread threat of disease; and

— overall millions lacking everything needed to survive who in normal times struggle to get by.

In December, Director Randy McGorty of Catholic Legal Services for the Archdiocese of Miami said:

“After dealing with this administration on Haitian issues for eight years, I’m forced to conclude that its policy toward Haiti is based on racism. It’s shocking. People (lack everything and) are starving. This callous disregard for human life is inexplicable. Many deported Haitians simply have no communities to return to. It is disappointing that the Bush administration would even consider sending people back to this incredibly fragile nation….(Haiti’s) humanitarian crisis….continues and worsens.”

(South) Florida Immigrant Advocacy Center’s (FIAC) executive director, Cheryl Little, said: “We are attempting to do whatever we can to convince government officials to change their minds on this. It’s an outrageously inhumane act.”

On January 26, FIAC urged new DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano to “immediately stay the inhumane deportations and to seriously consider granting Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitians already in the United States.” On December 19, former DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff denied the Preval government’s TPS request. As a result, Haiti won’t cooperate, so ICE is making Haitians get their own travel documents (including passports) and assist in their own deportations.

Throughout 2008, around 1000 occurred in total. After a near-three month suspension (from September 19 – December 9), they resumed slowly, but picked up noticeably after Obama’s inauguration. According to FIAC, men like Louiness Petit-Frere are affected, deported on January 23: “Here ten years with no criminal record, he leaves his US-citizen wife behind along with his mother and four siblings, all (with) legal status….One of his brothers, US Marine Sgt Nikenson Peirreloui, served and was injured in Iraq.”

In 2008, Obama campaigned vigorously for South Florida’s Haitian vote. Now he’s betrayed it the way he’s abandoning millions of distressed households by providing little in real relief compared to trillions in handouts to Wall Street and the rich….”

More at Stephen Lendman

Comment:

Here’s a link to a report on Haiti’s hope for an Obama presidency

and an open letter from Haitians to Obama on the catastrophic conditions in their country.