Soros: Gold In Bubble; But Keep Stimulus Going…..

Always nice to see people talk out of both sides of their mouth.

Here is currency speculator George Soros (ex of legendary hedge-fund Quantum) at the World Economic Forum at Davos:

“When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold.”

So far so good. Mis-price money (cheap interest rates) and people don’t want to keep their savings in it. They want it in something that isn’t subject to mis-pricing (so they hope) – hence gold.

But then Soros shows how disingenuous he’s being by adding this:

“I think that since the adjustment process to the recession is incomplete, there is a need for additional stimulus. Some countries, like the US and European countries, have plenty of room to increase their deficits. The political resistance to doing so increases the chances of a double dip in the economy in 2011 and after that.”

That is, he’s suggesting running more deficits and keeping the money spigot going, just the thing that’s caused the gold price to rise.

So how do we understand this?

Gold is due for a technical correction, but it’s also probably responding to deflation in the general economy. It’s not going down that fast, because a lot of people are also buying it speculatively.

That’s the tug of war.

Meanwhile, who know what Soros’ holdings are and who knows what his motivations are in making such contradictory statements.

But anyone who takes these sorts of pronouncements as any kind of lead for their own investments/speculations, should be prepared to part fairly soon from their money.

Maverick Managers Say Short the S&P, Bonds, and Goldman

A Barron´s interview with Bearing Asset Management´s Kevin Duffy and Bill Laggner, via Lew Rockwell:

“Do you see the S&P 500 retesting its lows of this year?

Duffy: It’s difficult to know. It depends on how much money gets printed. In real terms, can we get cut in half from here? We think so. S&P earnings are distorted because of accounting changes for banks and brokers; if banks were marked to market, S&P earnings next year could fall to $45 a share. Bullish sentiment is rivaling the 2007 top, and volatility has fallen dramatically. We like the VXX, an exchange-traded note that’s based on S&P 500 short-term volatility as measured by the VIX index. It’s down 67% this year, and fits into the whole idea that complacency is very high. Continue reading

SEC To Look At High-Frequency Trading and Naked Access

From Reuters, a report shows sharp rise in “naked access” to markets after 2005:

“NEW YORK (Reuters) – A report says that 38 percent of all U.S. stock trading is now done by firms that have “naked sponsored access” to markets, the controversial trading practice said to imperil the marketplace, and which faces a regulatory crackdown.

Naked access gives trading firms, using brokers’ licenses, unfetted access to stock markets. The firms, usually high-frequency traders, are then able to shave microseconds from the time it takes to trade.

Aite Group, a Boston consultancy, found that naked access accounted for just 9 percent in 2005.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is set to make changes to naked access and less risky forms of so-called sponsored access, when it releases a document expected next month.

The document is also expected to look more generally at high-frequency trading — where proprietary trading firms, brokers, and others use algorithms to make markets and profit from narrow market inefficiency.”

Gold Sinks Further, Dollar Surges..

We will need to see a few more days of supporting action, but as of now, it looks like gold might be beginning the long-awaited correction.

How deep that will go is anyone´s guess, though the recent central bank buying is supposed to lay a floor for it above $1000. Now, normally I wouldn´t bet the house on that, but I´ve come to see that pronouncements from insider analysts (at GS) are no longer just market analysis to be weighed. They are announcements about the course of action the banking cartel is going to be supporting.

The trigger for this? I think it´s that upbeat jobs number, which is probably taking some speculative money out of gold …especially as gold is technically very overbought and institutional buyers want to lock in profits before the year end.

Dubai is more important than most commentators think, even Marc Faber. They say the numbers involved are  too small.

But, as I blogged earlier, they´re  not seeing the contagion possible.

Here´s what they´re discounting:

1 We don´t know what the numbers from Dubai really are.  We can´t be absolutely sure. They keep changing them.  $125 billion (the highest figure I´v heard) may not be enormous in a global context, but we don´t know how its tied up with investments and where. A firesale of Dubai Worlds real estate could have unsettling effects all over the world.

2. Dubai has an impact on the property market, not just in Dubai, but in London and New York where Dubai Worlds has holdings, and also in India, where real estate and employment could take a hit.

3. Banks have leveraged exposure through derivatives, beyond what they are admitting in public.

4. These are banks that are already broke, for all purposes.

5. When the banks involved are not themselves broke, they are backed by governments that are broke, or near-broke.

6. The government with likely the most exposure is Britain. Britain is on the verge of sovereign default.

7. This happens just as the second down-leg in real estate is unfolding, and along with it the just-as- leveraged commercial real estate market (see the recent zero hedge post on an ongoing  CRE failure in Chicago), where there´s little pressure for the Feds to step in.

8. This happens after a 10-month run up in the stock market in what is essentially a bear rally, according to many experts.

9. This happens when the government has escalated an unpopular war in Afghanistan, calling for more troop commitments and more money

10. This happens after massive further government commitments in health care and other social spending.

Would the dollar move up just on the back of an employment number that was widely acknowledged to be misleading? I don´t know.

Do I know if gold will sink below $1000? No.

But CB (central banks of India etc.) buying is said to have set the floor. Me, I  think that was a bit of help given by the RBI (CB of India, Sri Lanka, etc.) to the IMF, seat of power of the globalists. Even the IMF admitted it got lucky.

Will that bit of market manipulation to the upside be enough to stave off the deflationary effect of develeraging asset derivatives?

I don´t know, but I suspect it won´t.

I’m anticipating  a rush into the dollar like we had in 2008…maybe not as strongly…
maybe gold will sop up some of the rush this time. I think that´s what the CB´s are hoping will happen.

But again, one can´t be sure, for the simple reason no one knows how much more bad debt there is and where it is.

Gold Down On Biggest Volume In History..

Via Economic Policy Journal:

“The exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, that holds gold bullion was down 5% Friday afternoon on record trading volume as the gold price fell. More than 70 million shares have traded hands with an hour of trading to go. It’s the highest volume in its history. The gold ETF was launched in late 2004 and has assets of more than $40 billion”