

“Anyone can benefit from insider information but not anyone can afford a supercomputer. They may both provide – with fair certainty – a market advantage but only one advantage will be prosecuted.”
– Anthony Wile, The Daily Bell


“Anyone can benefit from insider information but not anyone can afford a supercomputer. They may both provide – with fair certainty – a market advantage but only one advantage will be prosecuted.”
– Anthony Wile, The Daily Bell
Alexis Madrigal writes at The Atlantic about robot traders that spoof market orders and introduce potentially dangerous “noise” into high-frequency trading that could end up in a flash crash. The spoof trades can be used to coordinate what is effectively a denial service attack on certain nodes in the financial network. Essentially this is the same as what happens in the other DNS attacks in infrastructure critical to national security. It amounts to clogging the system with data so that it slows down and eventually seizes up.
“High-frequency traders have become a target for all kinds of people, but most of them appear to make their money being a little faster and little smarter than their competitors. And if they are playing by the rules, they improve the quality of markets by minuscule amounts trade after trade after trade.
But the algorithms we see at work here are different. They don’t serve any function in the market. University of Pennsylvania finance professor, Michael Kearns, a specialist in algorithmic trading, called the patterns “curious,” and noted that it wasn’t immediately apparent what such order placement strategies might do.Donovan thinks that the odd algorithms are just a way of introducing noise into the works. Other firms have to deal with that noise, but the originating entity can easily filter it out because they know what they did. Perhaps that gives them an advantage of some milliseconds. In the highly competitive and fast HFT world, where even one’s physical proximity to a stock exchange matters, market players could be looking for any advantage.
“They are moving the high-frequency services as close to the exchanges as possible because even the speed of light matters,” in such a competitive market, said Stanford finance professor Peter Hansen.
Given Nanex’s data, let’s say that these algorithms are being run each and every day, just about every minute. Are they really a big deal? Donovan said that quote stuffing or market spoofing played a role in the Flash Crash, but that event appears to have had so many causes and failures that it’s nearly impossible to apportion blame. (It is worth noting that European markets are largely protected from a similar event by volatility interruption auctions.)
But already since the May event, Nanex’s monitoring turned up another potentially disastrous situation. On July 16 in a quiet hour before the market opened, suddenly they saw a huge spike in bandwidth. When they looked at the data, they found that 84,000 quotes for each of 300 stocks had been made in under 20 seconds.
“This all happened pre-market when volume is low, but if this kind of burst had come in at a time when we were getting hit hardest, I guarantee it would have caused delays in the [central quotation system],” Donovan said. That, in turn, could have become one of those dominoes that always seem to present themselves whenever there is a catastrophic failure of a complex system.
There are ways to prevent quote stuffing, of course, and at least one of the members of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Technology Advisory Committee thinks it should be outlawed.
“Algorithms that might be spoofing the market are something that should be made illegal,” said John Bates, a former Cambridge professor and the CTO of Progress Software. But he didn’t want this presumably negative practice to color the more mundane competitive practices of high-frequency traders.”
Update (Sept 29, 5:54 PM):
Just a thought. Could a DHS cyber security exercise scheduled for this week have had anything to do with these two market “accidents”?
According to this report, the following sectors (among others) were to have been targeted for several days this week:
“This year’s exercise will be the largest yet, including representatives from seven cabinet-level federal departments, intelligence agencies, 11 states, 12 international partners and 60 private sector companies in multiple critical infrastructure sectors like banking, defense, energy and transportation.”
The markets aren’t specifically mentioned, but then you’d expect that if they were the chosen target…
ORIGINAL POST
Peter Cooper at Arabian Money argues that an apparent Google “flash crash” last Friday signals a market correction in the offing:
“It also seems pretty clear that Wall Street insiders flicked the sell switch at the weekend. That would account for the ‘accidental’ Google flash crash last Friday (click here). You bet against this crowd at your peril.
On this reckoning the gold pit action is just a last burst of optimism from latecomers to the party. For the gold price will surely dip (if not to much more than $1,150) in a big sell-off in financial markets, and silver will also fall back below $20.”
Meanwhile, Rick Ackerman points to a mini flash crash that apparently took place on Tuesday night in the gold futures market…..and explains why Bob Prechter has been wrong for the last 18 months – he’s an expert in real markets, not completely rigged ones…
I’ll admit that I’m glad to see this because of my own market bias, which has left me a bit lonely waiting for some kind of correction in the gold price.
Years of making my very own patentable blunders have made me much more comfortable being wrong on my own rather than being right in a crowd…..
But there does seem to be some technical evidence that a correction might be due.
Veteran star-gazer and market timer, Arch Crawford, on the Mars-Uranus cycle and its indications for the period August 1. 2010 to March 2011.
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the influential Economic Cycle Research Institute, has said he’s sure the economy is “rolling over” but can’t definitively call it a recession yet. Today he adds that the elevated price of gold signals anxiety more than inflation concerns. ECRI has a good track record as a trend predictor, from all accounts. On the other hand, it’s also true that gold is hitting new highs and the financial media has to put a good spin on that. Wall Street doesn’t like physical gold, because whenever it dominates the news stories, it undermines the stock and fund selling on which the Street mainly depends. Continue reading
Mark Mitchell comments on the CFTC hearings and the manipulation of trading of gold and silver derivatives (read IOUs):
“Maguire added: “What’s going to happen, if you’re an Asian trader, or a non-Western trader, who has no loyalty, or doesn’t care about homeland security or anything else, who says, now wait a minute, if I can establish in my mind that there is 100 ounces of paper gold, paper silver for example, for each ounce of real silver, than I have a naked short situation here that I can squeeze and they can go on the spot market which is basically a foreign exchange transaction, short dollar, long silver to any amount they want – billions, trillions — whatever they want, and they can take this market, squeeze this market, and blow it up…”
In other words, the problem isn’t just that criminal naked short sellers manipulate the metals market downwards. It is that they have created a condition where a foreign entity can merely demand delivery of real metal to induce a massive “squeeze” that sends the price of metals skyrocketing, putting huge downward pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, says Maguire, with prices rising, “for 100 customers who show up there is only one guy who is going to get his gold or silver and there’s 99 who will be disappointed, so without any new money coming into the market, just asking for that gold and silver will create a default.”
This would be a point, except…except..
1. This kind of fraudulent activity in the markets in the West is going to be seen by most foreigners as a direct act of financial aggression against them, not just domestic market participants. You can’t admit that your entire market system is rigged in favor of US and European banks, and then expect that the rest of the world is just going to stand there and not retaliate in some way…with justification.
Turnabout is fair play. Defense is not offense.
2. I doubt that Chinese, Saudis or any other foreigners are interested in squeezing the dollar, since they are the primary holders of dollars. In international markets, the dollar is still the reserve currency and most people save in it. Nor is the American middle class, loyal or disloyal, going to want a weaker dollar. They earn their money in dollars. The only people likely to attack the dollar are speculators, who will do it because they see a gain to be made from it. And the people most likely to do it successfully are the same people who are involved in manipulating it in the first place...the corrupt bankers and financiers who’ve got the most to gain in this and the least to lose.
Nothing that Paulson, Greenspan, Geithner, Summers, or Bernanke have been doing adds up to anything like a “strong dollar” policy. They’ve done everything but shout “bail” to dollar holders.
The hedge fund lobby is stepping up the..er… whining and dining in DC, says, Crain’s:
“With all the political and media focus on healthcare reform over the past few months, the financial industry enjoyed a brief respite from attacks and, as would be expected, spent its time and money wisely.
The hedge fund lobby, called the Managed Funds Association, doubled its spending during the last three months of 2009, according to data recently released by the Federal Election Commission. The MFA strategically sprinkled more than $1 million around Washington in the fourth quarter, compared to just $520,000 spent during the same period in 2008.”
Apparently, the hedgies don’t mind registering. What they’re kicking at are some other things:
1. Treating compensation as regular income (with its higher tax rate) rather than capital gains (with its 15% tax rate)
2. The banning of proprietary trading by banks, until now a lucrative source of income, the so-called Volcker rule.
The part I found really interesting in the Crain’s piece is that industry CEO Richard Baker apparently thinks there is a “growing alignment between hedge funds and millions of Americans.”
Oh yeah.
That would be that trader-activist mystique thing where Loeb, Paulson, and Chanos are really doing it for the little guy…….the money is just a side dish.
Um. Yeah. I get that.
And talking about side dishes, I hear that Rachel Uchitel’s interests are just aligned with Joe Six-pack’s too. She isn’t an extortionist and a gold-digger. Oh no. That’s just what it looks like. She’s a conjugal activist. She trying to get Tiger and all those other rovin’ eyes out there to be better husbands…..
Downside risks to gold, writes Nouriel Roubini at The Globe and Mail:
“But, since gold has no intrinsic value, there are significant risks of a downward correction. Eventually, central banks will need to exit quantitative easing and zero-interest rates, putting downward pressure on risky assets, including commodities. Or the global recovery may turn out to be fragile and anemic, leading to a rise in bearish sentiment on commodities – and in bullishness about the U.S. dollar.
Another downside risk is that the dollar-funded carry trade may unravel, crashing the global asset bubble that it, with the wave of monetary liquidity, has caused. And since the carry trade and the wave of liquidity are causing a global asset bubble, some of gold’s recent rise is also bubble-driven, with herding behaviour and “momentum trading” by investors pushing gold higher and higher. But all bubbles eventually burst. The bigger the bubble, the greater the collapse.
Gold’s rise is only partially justified by fundamentals. And it is not clear why investors should stock up on gold if the global economy dips into recession again and concerns about a near depression and rampant deflation rise sharply. If you truly fear a global economic meltdown, you should stock up on guns, canned food and other commodities that you can actually use in your log cabin.”
From Market Folly comes a break down of controversial hedge-fund manager David Einhorn’s portfolio:
Top 15 holdings by percentage of assets reported on his 13F filing
Pfizer (PFE): 7.64%
CareFusion (CFN): 7.32%
Cardinal Health (CAH): 6.86%
Teradata (TDC): 6.56%
URS (URS): 5.78%
Gold Miners ETF (GDX): 5.58%
Wyeth (WYE): 5.35%
Einstein Noah Restaurant (BAGL): 4.97%
EMC (EMC): 4.75%
Aspen Insurance (AHL): 4.22%
Travelers (TRV): 4.04%
Microsoft (MSFT): 3.39%
Everest Re (RE): 3.22%
McDermott (MDR): 3.17%
MI Developments (MIM): 2.93%
Note:
This doesn’t include:
1. Cash
2. Short postitions
3. Non-US equities
Other things to note:
1. Health care holdings, CAH and HNT, both got larger allocations (friend and colleague, Dan Loeb also added HNT to Third Point’s portfolio) and a new position was opened in CFN (CareFusion). Taken together with the fact that the largest holding for both Einhorn and Loeb is PFE (Pfizer), this makes medicine/health their biggest play.
2. Einhorn sold out of energy and upped his stake in MSFT (microsoft) a lot.
3. Besides GDX, Einhorn is also in physical gold, which is one of his largest holdings. It’s invisible in the list above, because it’s not disclosed in 13F filings.
4. Short the rating agencies, credit-sensitive financial institutions and REIT’s with cap rates of 6% and dividend yields of under 5%.
5. Greenlight, like Steve Cohen’s SAC and Soros, is also jumping into the anti-Euro trade, reports silobreaker, citing the Wall Street Journal.
As for Greenlight’s past performance, here’s a chart in percentage terms of Greenlights performance, from Gurufocus:
YR GL(%) S&P Excess Gain
2009 32.1 26.5. 5.6
2008 -17.6 -37 19.4
2007 5.9 5.61 0.3
2006 24.4 15.79 8.6
2005 14.2 4.91 9.3
2004 5.2 12 -6.8
What’s interesting in this chart is Einhorn’s bad showing in 2004 and 2007, years in which most people did well, or at least, stayed out of trouble, since the market was still receiving the benefit of Federal “juicing.” Also notable is 2008, when, had it not been for the controversial and possibly criminal Lehman raid, Einhorn would’ve been even worse off. He would probably have been as much down as the S&P.
Finally, without the johnny-come-lately piling onto gold, last year, 2009, wouldn’t have been a good year for Einhorn, either.
Always nice to see people talk out of both sides of their mouth.
Here is currency speculator George Soros (ex of legendary hedge-fund Quantum) at the World Economic Forum at Davos:
“When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold.”
So far so good. Mis-price money (cheap interest rates) and people don’t want to keep their savings in it. They want it in something that isn’t subject to mis-pricing (so they hope) – hence gold.
But then Soros shows how disingenuous he’s being by adding this:
“I think that since the adjustment process to the recession is incomplete, there is a need for additional stimulus. Some countries, like the US and European countries, have plenty of room to increase their deficits. The political resistance to doing so increases the chances of a double dip in the economy in 2011 and after that.”
That is, he’s suggesting running more deficits and keeping the money spigot going, just the thing that’s caused the gold price to rise.
So how do we understand this?
Gold is due for a technical correction, but it’s also probably responding to deflation in the general economy. It’s not going down that fast, because a lot of people are also buying it speculatively.
That’s the tug of war.
Meanwhile, who know what Soros’ holdings are and who knows what his motivations are in making such contradictory statements.
But anyone who takes these sorts of pronouncements as any kind of lead for their own investments/speculations, should be prepared to part fairly soon from their money.