Tag Archives: market

“Flash Crashes” Suggest Market Trouble?

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Update (Sept 29, 5:54 PM):

Just a thought. Could a DHS cyber security exercise scheduled for this week have had anything to do with these two market “accidents”?

According to this report, the following sectors (among others) were to have been targeted for several days this week:

“This year’s exercise will be the largest yet, including representatives from seven cabinet-level federal departments, intelligence agencies, 11 states, 12 international partners and 60 private sector companies in multiple critical infrastructure sectors like banking, defense, energy and transportation.”

The markets aren’t specifically mentioned, but then you’d expect that if they were the chosen target…

ORIGINAL POST

Peter Cooper at Arabian Money argues that an apparent Google “flash crash” last Friday signals a market correction in the offing:

“It also seems pretty clear that Wall Street insiders flicked the sell switch at the weekend. That would account for the ‘accidental’ Google flash crash last Friday (click here). You bet against this crowd at your peril.

On this reckoning the gold pit action is just a last burst of optimism from latecomers to the party. For the gold price will surely dip (if not to much more than $1,150) in a big sell-off in financial markets, and silver will also fall back below $20.”

Meanwhile, Rick Ackerman points to a mini flash crash that apparently took place on Tuesday night in the gold futures market…..and explains why Bob Prechter has been wrong for the last 18 months – he’s an expert in real markets, not completely rigged ones…

I’ll admit that I’m glad to see this because of my own market bias, which has left me a bit lonely waiting for some kind of correction in the gold price.

Years of making my very own patentable blunders have made me much more comfortable being wrong on my own rather than being right in a crowd…..

But there does seem to be some technical evidence that a correction might be due.

Chinese Buyers Holding Up Beaten Down Real Estate

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While the government meddlers aim at the impossible (“stimulating the economy”) with the aid of the unethical (appropriating tax payer funds for their interventions), the much-maligned market is doing its best to sweeten the pain the only way it knows – providing new buyers at prices that turn the old buyers into sellers. Joel Bowman at The Daily Reckoning reports (June 12, 2010):

“For a growing number of well-to-do, geographically mobile Chinese citizens, property investments abroad are becoming a popular store of wealth, and a hedge against an increasingly precarious market back home. Continue reading →

Janet Tavakoli Faces Off With Goldman On AIG CDOs

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Janet Tavakoli in Market Watch

“Earlier, Goldman denied it could have known this was a problem, yet acknowledged I had warned about the grave risks at the time. If Goldman wants to stick to its story that it didn’t know the gun was loaded, then it is not in the public interest to rely on Goldman’s opinion about the greater risk it now poses to the global markets.

Goldman excuses its participation by saying its counterparties were sophisticated and had the resources to do their own research. This is a fair point if Goldman were defending itself in a lawsuit with a sophisticated investor trying to recover damages. It is not a valid point when discussing public funds that were used to bail out AIG, Goldman, and Goldman’s “customers.”

Goldman claims the portfolios were fully disclosed to its customers. Yet at the time of the AIG bailout, Goldman did not disclose the nature of its trades with AIG, and Goldman did not disclose these portfolios to the U.S. public. If it had, the public might have balked at the bailout.

The public is an unwilling majority owner in AIG, and public money was funneled directly to Goldman Sachs as a result of suspect activity. The circumstances of AIG’s crisis were extraordinary and without precedent. I maintain that the public is owed reparations, and it would be fair to make all of AIG’s counterparties buy back the CDOs at full price, and they can keep the discounted value themselves.”

The Fed’s Market Manipulation Scheme…

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The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank has a document on file, marked confidential, taken from the papers of William McChesney Martin Jr. (Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 1951-1970, the longest tenure). The collection is housed at the Missouri Historical Society. The paper was discovered by researcher Elaine Supkis and is cited by James Turk at the Gold Anti-trust Action Committee’s website.

Note the following:

“There can be little question that the interconvertibility of gold and the dollar at a fixed price will have to remain the keystone of the international currency structure. At the same time, foreign exchange dealings by the United States monetary authorities, when judiciously applied, can serve to reduce capital flows, to dampen speculation, to minimize potential reserve effects, and hence, to minimize the impact on the United States gold stock.
The basic purpose of such operations would be to maintain confidence in the dollar* Foreign exchange operations would, of course, not be a substitute for other appropriate and basic actions to maintain the integrity of the dollar* but would serve as a highly useful and flexible addition to other monetary and fiscal policy measures..”

Major Market Move in Offing

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Looks like there’ll be a good deal of volatility ahead in the markets this coming week and through the fall:

*From Monday last week onward, New York has been riled up by the news out of China that Chinese SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) might walk away on derivative contracts that they think have been deeply manipulated. (They’re right on that). The SOEs involved are Air China, China Eastern, and Cosco.

*The derivatives are not mortgage-backed securities (the cause of the 2008 melt-down) but – likely- hedged oil futures in the OTC (over the counter) market, which is unregulated (that is, the SEOs hold synthetic longs).

*The threat – if it is that – has forced gold out of its summer trading range to within points of the $1000 mark, before falling back..and it pushed up the Chinese market by about 5%.(Sept 3)

*The counter-parties are 6 foreign banks, said to include Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JP Morgan. Goldman could take a hit on the contracts for around $15 billion, it’s rumored.

Note: The Chinese have been buying IMF bonds (50 billion) and watching the US meltdown and “stimulus” hocus-pocus with a good deal of warranted alarm, because all it means is their investments are being manipulated and driven down.

Obama’s reappointment of Bernanke was also taken as a bad sign by the Chinese. (correctly).

*Rumors have been swirling of further defaults of major US banks.

*The G20 has a preliminary meeting this weekend and the Chinese are said to have put the purchase of off-market gold on the table.

*The Chinese are pushing gold and silver on their populations, probably in anticipation of a currency meltdown.

*Meanwhile, Hong Kong has asked for all its gold to be returned from London.

*Last week, Germany asked for all its gold to be returned from London.

*Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and King County, Washington State have brought suit against Moody’s, S&P, and Morgan Stanley on fraud charges for the contracts they wrote, a case that would have massive implications for how other contracts are treated.

*[Oddly (?), Washington State is also where the earliest swine flu cases in the US were detected and where one of the largest outbreaks on campus just surfaced today – with some 2000 students at Washington State University coming down with the virus. Washington State had previously received large grants from Homeland Security for emergency preparations for pandemics, had TV Public Service Ads in place, had written up plans and practiced exercises].

Financial Follies: Condo Builders Under Water

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In the news today, AP reports:

“Multifamily construction plunged 46.1 percent to an annual rate of 90,000 units after a 23 percent fall in March. Permits for multifamily construction dropped 19.9 percent to 121,000 units. Analysts said apartment construction is being hurt by a glut of condominiums on the market and by tightening credit conditions for commercial real estate.”

My Comment

Oh, my. This made my day. Condo flippers and developers are in big trouble.

Overlook the opening of this article, with that plaintive reference to a ” modest rebound in single-family home construction in April” that  “raised hopes.”

Hopes should not be raised. That’s pretty clear by now. Not unless you’re being paid to pump houses for some rash developer who ran out of buyers for his pet eye-sore. We can think of a number of things that should be raised  – black flags, eyebrows, interest rates…..but not hopes.

I’ve been checking condo prices all over the world and it’s the same news. From Panama to Kuala Lumpur, from Miami to  Baltimore. Commercial developers are in trouble.

If that doesn’t warm the cockles of your heart and put a smile on your face, I don’t know what will. These wretched companies drove up housing by 100-300% (and more) in some cities and literally chased people on small or fixed incomes out of places they’d been living for years.

And don’t tell me they added any real value.

In New York. construction in one building was so shoddy, the Buildings Department had to intervene.  I personally inspected a condo where, when the owner kicked the wall, her foot went right through.  Many of them were aesthetic monstrosities that ruined the skyline,  polluted the air, and destroyed the architectural beauty of the places where they metastasized.

Now there’s a glut and the developers are losing their shirts.

Miami’s condo king, Jorge Perez, is sitting on top of a market with the biggest glut in the country. Since 2003, nearly 23000 condos were added to downtown Miami, and 33% of them remain unsold. The financial hurricane hit just when Perez, the “tropical Trump,” had opened his newest project, Icon Brickell, a boutique hotel combined with over 1,640 luxury apartments and squeezed into three towers. Only 18 units have sold so far. Perez (once estimated to have a net worth of $1.3 billion) is in big money trouble. His company, Related Group, lost $1 billion in 2008 and ran up debt of $2 billion, $700 million from Icon Brickell alone.

It just doesn’t get better than that….