Looks like there’ll be a good deal of volatility ahead in the markets this coming week and through the fall:

*From Monday last week onward, New York has been riled up by the news out of China that Chinese SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) might walk away on derivative contracts that they think have been deeply manipulated. (They’re right on that). The SOEs involved are Air China, China Eastern, and Cosco.

*The derivatives are not mortgage-backed securities (the cause of the 2008 melt-down) but – likely- hedged oil futures in the OTC (over the counter) market, which is unregulated (that is, the SEOs hold synthetic longs).

*The threat – if it is that – has forced gold out of its summer trading range to within points of the $1000 mark, before falling back..and it pushed up the Chinese market by about 5%.(Sept 3)

*The counter-parties are 6 foreign banks, said to include Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JP Morgan. Goldman could take a hit on the contracts for around $15 billion, it’s rumored.

Note: The Chinese have been buying IMF bonds (50 billion) and watching the US meltdown and “stimulus” hocus-pocus with a good deal of warranted alarm, because all it means is their investments are being manipulated and driven down.

Obama’s reappointment of Bernanke was also taken as a bad sign by the Chinese. (correctly).

*Rumors have been swirling of further defaults of major US banks.

*The G20 has a preliminary meeting this weekend and the Chinese are said to have put the purchase of off-market gold on the table.

*The Chinese are pushing gold and silver on their populations, probably in anticipation of a currency meltdown.

*Meanwhile, Hong Kong has asked for all its gold to be returned from London.

*Last week, Germany asked for all its gold to be returned from London.

*Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and King County, Washington State have brought suit against Moody’s, S&P, and Morgan Stanley on fraud charges for the contracts they wrote, a case that would have massive implications for how other contracts are treated.

*[Oddly (?), Washington State is also where the earliest swine flu cases in the US were detected and where one of the largest outbreaks on campus just surfaced today – with some 2000 students at Washington State University coming down with the virus. Washington State had previously received large grants from Homeland Security for emergency preparations for pandemics, had TV Public Service Ads in place, had written up plans and practiced exercises].