Video 1: An interesting interview by Maria Bartiromo of Sir Evelyn de Rothschild on the financial crisis (December 2008). Here’s a quick break down of his main points: Continue reading
Tag Archives: financial crisis
Rick Ackerman: Headlines Misread The Market
“Trader Rick Ackerman interprets the cheer-leading in the headlines:
“Could the newspapers simply be misinterpreting the signs? It would certainly seem that way. To take the headlines cited above, we see oil’s price surge as having absolutely nothing to do with a pick-up in demand. Rather, the push toward $90 a barrel represents speculative excesses in the futures markets, exacerbated by the reluctance of traders to take short positions.
How could they, when, on any given day, a terrorist with a missile launcher could cause the global price of crude to double instantly by scuttling a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz?
As for “bets on growth” pushing stocks higher, it is not bullish speculation that has been driving up shares for the last 13 months, but rather a vast excess of liquidity in the financial system.
As for the rise in T-Note yields to four percent, we seriously doubt this is being caused by competition from expansion-minded borrowers in the private sector; rather, it comes from the rising fear among lenders that they will be repaid in a currency whose value looks all but certain to fall precipitously in the years ahead.
If the central bankers truly believe that strong economic growth is about to trigger inflation, why do they continue to hold the federal funds rate near zero?“
Harvard Undergrad & Perlman Student, Intern Beats Wall Street Whizzes
Update (March 30):
If anyone claims that looking at gender and the way it inflects culture is inherently collectivist, I’d say they need to define collectivism more accurately. The way libertarians define it now, it’s more a term of abuse than a credible unit of analysis, unless it’s qualified pretty heavily.
There is a body of evidence that males are over-represented in highly aggressive behaviors of certain kinds. That isn’t an argument that men are “less moral” or that women are “more moral.” Not at all. For instance, women predominate in certain other kinds of crimes. In studies of child-killing/infanticide, women killers are often represented more heavily when considering certain age groups. Why? Perhaps because children are weaker than women physically and because women spend more time around them and usually have primary care of them. On the other hand, there are fewer female serial killers than male.
The richest financiers in the world are males. That’s a fact. Males are heavily over-represented in the financial industry and it’s a very male-dominated culture. There are complex reasons for that.
But they’re irrelevant to this post.
Do women benefit from welfare-state programs and set-asides and does that affect voting patterns, consumer culture, tax policy, and welfare policy? I’d say, with some caveats, probably yes.
[But conversely, men might benefit from crony capitalism on Wall Street and defense boondoggles, and indirectly, through set-asides from women that benefits families].
But, again, that doesn’t have much to do with this post…
For all I know, some of these financiers were pushed into reckless behavior because their wives were shopaholics or suing them for everything they had.
But, once again, that’s not this post.
So, this isn’t gender bigotry. It’s simply one way of looking at the influence of our own collectivist tendencies (masculinity as it’s constructed, as well as masculinity as a biological reality) on Wall Street culture.
Original Post
Deal Journal tracks down another outsider who spotted Wall Street’s corrupt practices ahead of the pros. Turns out she’s a woman too. There’s something about estrogen that doesn’t lend itself to mega financial swindles. We’re waiting for the Harvard thesis on the gender behind Wall Street’s agenda.
I hate to come to this conclusion, but a lot of the hot-air, recklessness, ego, hype, aggression, and cut-throat competition really does sound like the product of a culture that conflates masculinity with viciousness and braggadocio. Paulson, Weill, Rubin, Dimon…no women in the top sharks. But when you look at whistle-blowers and expose writers, women stand out: Ann Williamson, Padma Desai (both on the Russian crisis) Lucy Komisar, Meredith Whitney, Janet Tavakoli….
“Deal Journal has yet to read “The Big Short,” Michael Lewis’s yarn on the financial crisis that hit stores today. We did, however, read his acknowledgments, where Lewis praises “A.K. Barnett-Hart, a Harvard undergraduate who had just written a thesis about the market for subprime mortgage-backed CDOs that remains more interesting than any single piece of Wall Street research on the subject.”
“Barnett-Hart’s interest in CDOs stemmed from a summer job at an investment bank in the summer of 2008 between junior and senior years. During a rotation on the mortgage securitization desk, she noticed everyone was in a complete panic. “These CDOs had contaminated everything,” she said. “The stock market was collapsing and these securities were affecting the broader economy. At that moment I became obsessed and decided I wanted to write about the financial crisis.”
Back at Harvard, against the backdrop of the financial system’s near-total collapse, Barnett-Hart approached professors with an idea of writing a thesis about CDOs and their role in the crisis. “Everyone discouraged me because they said I’d never be able to find the data,” she said. “I was urged to do something more narrow, more focused, more knowable. That made me more determined.”
She emailed scores of Harvard alumni. One pointed her toward LehmanLive, a comprehensive database on CDOs. She received scores of other data leads. She began putting together charts and visuals, holding off on analysis until she began to see patterns–how Merrill Lynch and Citigroup were the top originators, how collateral became heavily concentrated in subprime mortgages and other CDOs, how the credit ratings procedures were flawed, etc.
“If you just randomly start regressing everything, you can end up doing an unlimited amount of regressions,” she said, rolling her eyes. She says nearly all the work was in the research; once completed, she jammed out the paper in a couple of weeks.”
More here about the young lady whose research probably played a big part in Michael Lewis’ new book, “The Big Short.”
[At least, Lewis acknowledged the research. That puts him several rungs above most celebrity authors].
Meanwhile, I really like that a violinist was involved in this. My own father was a very gifted amateur violinist and Perlman, Zukerman, Oistrakh, Elman, Kreisler, Menuhin and many others defined my childhood.
Perhaps a lifetime of being immersed in real virtuosity and creativity left Barnett-Hart immune to the glamor of the phony maestros of Wall Street …
Prem Watsa On The Uptick Rule
Prem Watsa of Fairfax Financial – one of several targets of short-selling attacks – in an interview with financial editor Diane Francis in the National Post:
“Q What stock market rules contributed to the meltdown?
A Eliminating the uptick rule [can only short on upticks in stock prices] was a mistake and so is short selling without borrowing the stock first. The ban on shorting financial institutions is lifted again and the SEC is debating whether to bring back the uptick rule again. What we need more of is transparency in all markets, including with respect to shorting and derivatives.
Q What of the role of boards of directors?
A In a bubble it’s difficult for boards of directors. Compensation should be long term. It should be stock-based and not cash. Our company’s compensation system is focused on the bottom line, not top line, and is long term. The Romans built strong bridges because their engineers had to stand under them as the army crossed them for the first time. Responsibility brings better results and aligned interest with partners.”
My Comment:
Watsa is an interesting figure to listen to on the financial crisis. Born in Hyderabad and educated in Chemical Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology, he is the founder, CEO, and chairman of Toronto based Fairfax Financial, as well as a director and member of the risk committee at ICICI Bank in India. He’s been called India’s Warren Buffett and he did handsomely for Fairfax investors, turning shareholder equity from $2 billion in 2006 to $6.5 billion in 2009 by betting against credit default swaps.
Besides specific rules like the uptick rule, he cites the emphasis on ratings (versus due diligence or prudent risk management) and an increasingly short-term bias in the way companies, shareholders, and money managers act.
What does that amount to? A concern with the way things look, rather than the underlying reality.
It was the focus on labels and not reality that did the capital markets in. At least, that’s my generalization
Zerohedge On Banning Credit Default Swaps
Zerohedge has a technical discussion of why hedge fund manager David Einhorn’s call to ban Credit Default Swaps is essentially a call to dismantle the entire fiat money system. Some of the details elude me, as they’re very technical, but the rest seems right to me. There’s no inherent difference between a credit default swap and, say, an interest rate swap, of which there are many more. So Einhorn’s demand is in effect a demand to ban all derivatives…
“Remember the liquidity pyramid?
As the graphic shows, derivatives account for 1,000% of world GDP, in essence allowing the world to believe fiat money is worth something only courtesy of financial sleight of hand which involved derivatives and securitizations. Yet all those calling for an end to CDS also have to realize that due to CDS intertwined nature, the world fiat system would need to do away with all derivatives (not just CDS), and when you do that you basically eliminate the other hybrid asset classes: securitizations being chief among them. What this would leave us with is a liquidity pyramid which ends with bank loans, which are much more manageable and whose risk can be controlled. It would also leave the world with a fiat currency system, which would lose about 10x of its value overnight, thereby leading to an instantaneous and global unwind of fiat money, and rolling waves of domestically denominated hyperinflation. A spectacular race to the bottom of the asset pyramid. And who will rather commit suicide than see that happen: why the Federal Reserve of course.
Which brings us full circle: an attack on CDS is an attack on excess liquidity, which is an attack on the global asset/liability imbalance (as world GDP and otherwise output has no chance of catching up with the liquidity that is currently available), which is an attack on fiat money, which is an attack on the perpetually low price of gold (because if and when derivatives and securitizations are done away with and tangible assets regain their true value, gold would go up by at least the same magnitude that fiat currencies are devalued), which is an attack on the heart of our broken financial system itself, and, an attack on the Federal Reserve, the Fractional and Central Banking System in principle. Well done David.
We hope Einhorn is successful in bringing more people to understand not just what the risk implications of CDS are (while also demonstrating the positive value that they do in fact provide in a rigged and broken capital market), but also what the underlying thematic subject of his attack really is: a busted fiat system. In essence, David believes in a fresh start. So do we, because on a long enough timeline…”
My Comment
Just to make it clear – I am myself not in favor of banning all derivatives. Why? Not because I think they´re profound innovations..or vitally necessary. But I think it´s the wrong way to go about tackling the problem. Banning one set of financial instruments will only prevent the smaller players from using them. The largest and best connected players will game the ban in some way, or make use of other sorts of compensating structures. A better way would be to undo the fiat money system altogether…
So my agreementis with Zerohedge´s assessment of the situation and not necessarily with Einhorn´s recommendation on that point.
Besides, Einhorn, who made his money off of CDS´s, is an odd person to be pushing a ban.
Janet Tavakoli Faces Off With Goldman On AIG CDOs
Janet Tavakoli in Market Watch
“Earlier, Goldman denied it could have known this was a problem, yet acknowledged I had warned about the grave risks at the time. If Goldman wants to stick to its story that it didn’t know the gun was loaded, then it is not in the public interest to rely on Goldman’s opinion about the greater risk it now poses to the global markets.
Goldman excuses its participation by saying its counterparties were sophisticated and had the resources to do their own research. This is a fair point if Goldman were defending itself in a lawsuit with a sophisticated investor trying to recover damages. It is not a valid point when discussing public funds that were used to bail out AIG, Goldman, and Goldman’s “customers.”
Goldman claims the portfolios were fully disclosed to its customers. Yet at the time of the AIG bailout, Goldman did not disclose the nature of its trades with AIG, and Goldman did not disclose these portfolios to the U.S. public. If it had, the public might have balked at the bailout.
The public is an unwilling majority owner in AIG, and public money was funneled directly to Goldman Sachs as a result of suspect activity. The circumstances of AIG’s crisis were extraordinary and without precedent. I maintain that the public is owed reparations, and it would be fair to make all of AIG’s counterparties buy back the CDOs at full price, and they can keep the discounted value themselves.”
The Conscience Of A Speculator
December 20, 1998: an exchange between George Soros and Steve Kroft on “60 Minutes”:
“Kroft: “You’re a Hungarian Jew …”
Soros: “Mm-hmm.”……
Kroft: “My understanding is that you went … went out, in fact, and helped in the confiscation of property from the Jews.”
Soros: “Yes, that’s right. Yes.”
Kroft: “I mean, that’s—that sounds like an experience that would send lots of people to the psychiatric couch for many, many years. Was it difficult?”
Soros: “Not, not at all. Not at all. Maybe as a child you don’t … you don’t see the connection. But it was—it created no—no problem at all.”
Kroft: “No feeling of guilt?”
Soros: “No.”
Kroft: “For example, that, ‘I’m Jewish, and here I am, watching these people go. I could just as easily be these, I should be there.’ None of that?”
Soros: “Well, of course, … I could be on the other side or I could be the one from whom the thing is being taken away. But there was no sense that I shouldn’t be there, because that was—well, actually, in a funny way, it’s just like in the markets—that is I weren’t there—of course, I wasn’t doing it, but somebody else would—would—would be taking it away anyhow. And it was the—whether I was there or not, I was only a spectator, the property was being taken away. So the—I had no role in taking away that property. So I had no sense of guilt.”
Death Penalty for Chinese Embezzler
“China on Tuesday executed a former securities trader for embezzlement, the first person in the industry to be put to death, but millions of yuan are still missing, a state newspaper said.
Yang Yanming was sentenced to death in late 2005 and took the secret of the whereabouts of 65 million yuan ($9.52 million) of the misappropriated funds to his grave, the Beijing Evening News said.
The report added that Yang was the first person working in China’s securities sector to be executed.”
More here at News Daily.
Stories like these should alert us to the possibility that there may very well be mini-Madoffs (mini in absolute money terms only) all over the world, on which this recovery rests flimsily.
Feds Suspected Rajaratnam Ten Years Ago
Forbes has a report on an Intel engineer, Roomi Khan who cooperated with the Fed´s to avoid charges in a wire fraud case back in 2001- 2002. Apparently Rajaratnam was making money from inside information even then.
“According to a June 2002 sentencing memorandum for Khan, the earlier case arose after Intel suspected Rajaratnam was getting tips from an Intel insider because he was predicting Intel’s revenue “with extreme accuracy.”
Intel set up a hidden video camera that on March 6, 1998, recorded Khan, employed as a product marketing engineer at the company, faxing an important report concerning Intel’s three main Pentium processors to Rajaratnam.
The memo said Khan on March 24 then faxed handwritten pages that contained pricing information and sales data for Intel chips. “By multiplying those numbers, one can determine Intel’s total revenue for the quarter,” it said.”
Madoff -Related Accounting Firm Does Dubai´s Accounts..
From the Independent:
“Dubai World will start a formal process next week that will see it invite leading banks, including HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group and Standard Chartered, to create a steering committee to represent the many lenders. KPMG has been lined up by the lead banks to represent them in negotiations, with a formal appointment expected once the compilation of the five-to-six bank steering committee is finalised.
My Comment:
Now, KPMG is the big four accounting firm that gave Madoff´s representations to Tremont Group Holdings (a US fund that Madoff purportedly hoodwinked) a thumbs up. The Tomchin Family Charitable Trust, one of numbers of investors who were allegedly scammed by Madoff, has launched a lawsuit against KPMG and Tremont for negligence in monitoring one of Tremont´s funds that invested with Madoff.
The lawsuit included a list of other Madoff clients that included Victoria de Rothschild of the banking family of the Rothschilds and a Tory party contributor:
“Also on the list of Mr Madoff’s British clients is Lady Victoria de Rothschild, who is related to Nathaniel Rothschild, the co- chairman of Atticus Capital, the hedge fund.
Lady Victoria is a well-known figure on the society circuit and became known more recently as a lender to the Tory party, having set up a special company that gave the party a £1,014,000 loan that is due to be repaid in 2010.”
KPMG has also been hit with a $1b lawsuit for “reckless and negligent” auditing of failed subprime broker, New Century Financial, reportedly the first major case against an auditor arising from the financial crisis.
My Comment
So we have a Madoff-tainted accounting firm KPMG, with multiple legal problems, representing the banks that loaned to Dubai on one side, and (as I noted before) French banking legend Rothschild on the other side, heading up the restructuring efforts for Dubai….
Wiki has a list of KPMG´s legal infractions that includes this:
“In February 2007 KPMG Germany was investigated for ignoring questionable payments in the Siemens bribery case.[29] (Siemens agreed to pay a record $1.34 billion in fines to settle the case in December, 2008.) In November 2008 the Siemens Supervisory Board recommended changing auditors from KPMG to Ernst & Young.[30]
In 2006, Fannie Mae sued KPMG for malpractice for approving years of erroneous financial statements.[31]
In March 2008 KPMG was accused of enabling “improper and imprudent practices” at New Century Financial, a failed mortgage company[32] and KPMG agreed to pay $80 million to settle suits from Xerox shareholders over manipulated earnings reports.”
Some confidence-builder… a bank that´s been closely connected to the Madoff scam and to the Fannie and Freddie case (and hence, to Goldman Sachs)…
KPMG and Deloitte were brought in to investigate India´s ¨Madoff¨” – the fraud- riddled IT outsourcing giant Satyam (now Mahindra Satyam, its post-merger avatar – over the objections of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, India´s regulator, which said KPMG was not registered with it and would thus not be subject to its code of conduct or disciplinary proceedings.