Tag Archives: financial crisis

Dubai Government Thumbs Its Nose at Creditors

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After tentatively implying that there would be a back-stop to Dubai World´s debt problems, the Dubai Government on Monday disowned any legal obligation to Dubai World and told creditors that they needed to take responsibility for their loans.

“Creditors need to take part of the responsibility for their decision to lend to the companies,” said Abdulrahman al-Saleh, director general of Dubai’s department of finance. “They think Dubai World is part of the goverment, which is not correct.”

(Reuters)

My Comment:

What´s going on here? The back and forth isn´t recent, but has been going on the whole year, with Dubai implying at one time that its debt load was taken care of, and at another, that it still had more problems; and in this instance, first seeming to back up Dubai World and then, backing-off from its backup….

The timing and vacillation seem to suggest that the government is testing the market and the reaction of investors before making its move. Not good.

And it leaves open the possibility, already raised by UBS in a recent Bloomberg piece, that the problems exceed the $80 billions of government liabilities and might extend to off-book structures that are not presently known.

Update:

After weekend assurances from Dubai that its much richer fellow-emirate Abu Dhabi, seat of the UAE federal government, would help, and that liquidity would be assured for local and international banks that needed it (through a “special additional liquidity facility”), Asian markets recovered this morning from their sell-off last week. But this morning, the local stock exchanges have been hit hard and this new announcement could provoke a second sell-off in world markets, especially in the UK FTSE, since British banks, especially Royal Bank of Scotland, have loan exposure to Dubai World.

Then, there´s also the exposure that UK banks have to other investments where Dubai World holds a stake.

And there´s the indirect exposure US banks have to Dubai through ties with UK banks.

India Fears Effects of Dubai Meltdown

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After earlier assurances that the Dubai meltdown wouldn´t impact the Indian market much, top officials now admit in published reports that the Indian labor market could be affected.

“Annual remittances to India from UAE is about 2 billion US dollars, out of the $52 billion sent by Indian expats from across the world.Two-thirds of the six million people living in Dubai are Indians, more than 60 per cent of them Malayalis, much to the worry of Kerala’s Finance Minister T M Thomas Isaac.“One main fear,” he notes, “is that the credit to realty sector in Dubai would be frozen for some time. It could seriously affect the construction sector, thereby our workers.” There is also concern about the fate of Kochi’s Smart City project as the Dubai-based real estate giant TECOM is already alleged to be in a bad shape.Most of the Indians employed in the UAE, according to recruitment agencies, are in the real estate sector, financial services and retail.“The Middle East meltdown,” says E Balaji of Chennai-based headhunting firm Ma Foi Management Consultants, “will lead to at least 25 per cent contraction in the job market. It can have a ripple effect.”

My Comment:

I´m assuming that the job market refered to is the job market for Indians in the Middle East….

Meanwhile, the rupee has come under pressure as the Indian stock market sold off on the events in Dubai.

Deadbeat Expats Flee Sharia Crackdown on Debtors

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Foreign workers lured by the promise of easy living and credit are turning tail and choosing to leg it, rather than face Dubai´s tough Sharia law which mandates prison for debtors [not a bad idea in some cases…]:

“Now, faced with crippling debts as a result of their high living and Dubai’s fading fortunes, many expatriates are abandoning their cars at the airport and fleeing home rather than risk jail for defaulting on loans.

Police have found more than 3,000 cars outside Dubai’s international airport in recent months. Most of the cars – four-wheel drives, saloons and “a few” Mercedes – had keys left in the ignition.

Some had used-to-the-limit credit cards in the glove box. Others had notes of apology attached to the windscreen.”

Abu Dhabi Agrees to Selective Bail Out

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“We will look at Dubai’s commitments and approach them on a case-by-case basis,” the official told the Reuters news agency by telephone, adding: “It does not mean that Abu Dhabi will underwrite all of their debt.”  Al Jazeera, November 28, 2009

An unnamed Abu Dhabi official has said that the rich UAE [United Arab Republic] emirate will help its spendthrift neigbour Dubai on a case by case basis.

This gets pretty interesting for all the other countries out there with sovereign debt problems .. even though, as I blogged earlier, Dubai´s is not a sovereign debt problem. It´s a problem for Dubai World.

However, there seems to be a perception issue involved, which is causing credit default swaps for Irish banks to rise dramatically.

What´s going on?

This isn´t the first time the Dubai story has caused jitters in the market. Ten months ago, Dubai CDS´s rose to record levels on fears that neighboring and much richer Abu Dhabi wouldn¨t ride in to the rescue.
But that was Dubai CDS. Now it´s Irish CDS´s that are up.

Over at the Baseline Scenario, Simon Johnson has an explanation. He says the Irish tremors are caused by the perception that as Dubai goes, so go the other sovereign debt crises around the world:

1. If Dubai can effectively default or reschedule its debts without disrupting the global economy, then others can do the same.
2. If Abu Dhabi takes a tough line and doesn’t destabilize markets, others (e.g., the EU) will be tempted to do the same (i.e., for Ireland and Greece). “No more unconditional bailouts” is an appealing refrain in many capitals.
3. If the US supports some creditor losses for Dubai (e.g., because of its connections with Iran), this makes it easier to impose losses on creditors elsewhere (even perhaps where IMF programs are in place, such as Eastern Europe).

I´m not sure I follow this reasoning at all. Nor do I understand why Mr. Johnson seems to think this adds up to strengthening Ben Bernanke´s hand…..

Let´s see. Is Mr. Johnson saying that if picking and choosing whom to rescue is OK for an Arab sheikh, it should be good  enough for Ben Bernanke?

Frankly, that sounds less like an explanation and more like advance PR for the Fed to engage in arbitrary treatment – bailouts – of banks and other companies..

[Update:  And lo, it turns out that Ben Bernanke does need all the help he can get. He wants his power, dammit…see this oped at the Washington Post, hat tip to EconomicPolicyJournal]

A more convincing explanation of the Irish reaction than Johnson´s is Irish exposure via investment and employment to the Dubai economy.

“The Emirate was a Mecca for the Irish glitterati during the Celtic Tiger years, with many would-be investors taking a gamble. Ireland captain O’Driscoll bought an apartment in the e389million Tiara Residence in 2006 off the plans. However, the property may now be worth much less than the €500,000 he paid for it.

But thousands of Irish investors are facing the prospect of their Dubai prop-erties plunging in price. Price drops in Dubai have been severe. According to Knight Frank Global House Price Survey, prices dropped by 40%.

It’s all a long way from the glittering heights of the middle of the decade – and from the 1980s, before the ruling Al-Maktoum family decided to turn their dusty emirates into a leading city.

The Irish have shaped the landscape of Dubai like few other nationalities, with Irish builders, engineers and architects prominent in building up the city state.

But now, question marks hang over the fate of hundreds of Irish who escaped the slump at home for jobs with companies under Dubai’s control.”

More here.

Dubai Govt. Unable to Pay Debt

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Via EconomicPolicyJournal:

“The government of Dubai is in major financial trouble.

The government late Wednesday said it would restructure Dubai World and announced a six-month “standstill” on repayments of the state-run wide-ranging conglomerate’s debt.

Government-owned Dubai World is a conglomerate with interests in real estate, ports and the leisure industry. The firm carries around $60 billion in liabilities. Credit agencies Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s downgraded the debt of a range of government-related firms, including DP World, after the restructuring announcement.

The dollar amounts involved with Dubai are relatively small in this tranche (compared to the real estate debacle0, but this continues to indicate the shortage of dollars to support the current capital structure.

As one would expect, markets are reacting negatively. International stock markets are down across the board. The dollar is climbing.”

More at The Telegraph.

My Comment

We´ve been watching this story since we first read it via Peter Cooper, who has some other insightful comments on his blog, Arabian Money.net.

“The Private Equity World Middle East 2009 conference this week attracted a good crowd and many sponsors. However, the gloom and despondency among delegates and speakers is tangible. Why are these canny business operators so depressed?

Basically they do not believe in the recovery and see a double-dip in the global economy as stimulus packages are withdrawn. The current uptick has left businesses too highly priced and their owners overconfident in the opinion of private equity firms.”

Cooper has also noted that gold sales in Dubai have crashed, although with the increase in general investor interest, he thinks this won´t have a major impact on the world gold market. Cooper also thinks the China boom is driven mostly by government stimulus money and is very vulnerable to a collapse.

His opinion comes with regional expertise behind it, while mine is simply based on my sense that the 2008 crash was only a preview of coming attractions…but still, I´m wary of the move in gold.  My sense is that speculative money is pushing up the price and it could go down fast short-term. Long-term fundamentals remain good, of course.

Now, this is Thanksgiving and trading is thinner that usual, so market fluctuations do get amplified. Also, the move down in gold shouldn´t be taken out of context. It´s only to be expected, given its strong performance recently. But nonetheless, the strengthening of the dollar and the sell-off in the markets is significant.

Also significant is the fact that the Dubai government made the announcement after the local stock market had closed and on the eve of the Eid holiday that runs upto December 6.

Here are the numbers:

[(Note: the Asian markets sold off on Thursday, the other figures are opening figures in Europe and America.]

Update: there was some recovery in the markets by the close of Friday.

[Note also: First set of figures is from AP, Friday, November 27, 5:34 AM.]

Figures in brackets are from IBNLive.

Japanese Nikkei 225 down 3.2% (2.28%)

Australia down 2.9%

Shanghai down 2.4% (1.82%)

(India´s Sensex down 2.67%, Nifty down 2.8%)

Hang Seng (Hong Kong) down 4.8% (3.45%)

Kospi in S. Korea down 4.7% (4.01%)

Europe, down over 3% on Thursday, slid further:

FTSE 100 (UK) (down 3.2% on Thursday) 0.3%

DAX (Germ) (down 3.25% on Thursday) 0.4%

CAC-40 (France) (down 3.4% on Thursday) 0.6%

The Canadia market (TSX) dropped over 200 points.

On Wall Street, the Dow is down this morning by 2% and the S&P by 2.5%

Oil down by $4.17 to $73. 79 a barrel in Europe ($72.39 in Asia).

The dollar climbed back up from a 14 yr low of 84.81 yen to 86.33 and moved above parity to the Swissie.

Gold fell from a high above $1192 on Thursday to as low as $1136 (a move of $52 $56, which isn´t that big a deal for it, but nonetheless could be an indication of future downside volatility)

Looks like in a market sell-off, as before, the dollar gains..

This is why price-chasing is a danger.

It’s Not the Borrowers, It’s the Lenders

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Karl Denninger at Market Ticker is usually someone I agree with, but on this he strikes me as at least partially wrong:

“But just as occurred in the 1930s, Bernanke cannot change the dynamic because there are no willing and able borrowers left.

THAT is the dynamic that sets off deflation and makes it pervasive. This is the condition that Bernanke has ignored and claimed does not exist, but the fact remains that it does.”

No willing and able borrowers left? Even anecdotal evidence says that’s not true.

People with solid credit histories are being refused loans.. and  if you have some kind of credit glitch, forget it. And forget about getting NINJA loans and liar’s loans and all the rest of the credit that used to gush from the spigot.

The banks aren’t lending. But it’s not because there are no borrowers. Of course there are people who’d like to borrow and can. A

ll the people who weren’t flipping houses and maxing out plastic, for instance. Believe it or not, there are plenty of us.

Banks aren’t lending because they don’t want to. They have other reasons besides unqualified borrowers:

*They have to shore up their balance sheets and build reserves

* They’ve been burned before, and don’t know what kind of collateral is out there and what kind of assets.

*No one knows the correct price of anything, because values are deflating in all sectors or are badly manipulated by government subsidies and intervention; and also, because the mark-to-market model was suspended (correctly, in my opinion).

*Lenders are uncertain about the future and are waiting

*Banks can get a better return investing/speculating with their money – and there are plenty of borrowers for that.

Investors are just waiting on the side-lines for the commodities/currencies/metals/housing/you-name-it casino to reopen.

World Bank Global Outlook: No Green Shoots

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This harsh reality is reflected in the World Bank Global Outlook Report of June 22, 2009.
It notes the following for 2009:

*Global growth is set to fall by 2.9%
*World trade is likely to shrink by nearly 10%
*Industrial production in rich countries will drop by 15% from August 2008
*Developed economies will contract by 4.5% in 2009 and grow only in 2010 and 2011
*The US economy will decline by 3%
*Private capital flows to developing countries are likely to be halved, from $US 707 billion (2008) to $US 363 billion (2009)
*Industrial production in developing countries, excluding China, is set to fall by 10%.
*GDP growth in developing countries will fall from 5.9% (2008) to 1.2%.

China Quotes Ben Franklin, Criticizes Greenspan for Asset Inflation

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“Mr Cheng [former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee and current head of the green energy drive] said China had learned from the West that it is a mistake for central banks to target retail price inflation and take their eye off assets. This is where Greenspan went wrong from 2000 to 2004,” he said. “He thought everything was alright because inflation was low, but assets absorbed the liquidity.”

Mr Cheng said China had lost 20m jobs as a result of the crisis and advised the West not to over-estimate the role that his country can play in global recovery. China’s task is to switch from export dependency to internal consumption, but that requires a “change in the ideology of the Chinese people” to discourage excess saving. “This is very difficult”. Mr Cheng said the root cause of global imbalances is spending patterns in US (and UK) and China.

“The US spends tomorrow’s money today,” he said. “We Chinese spend today’s money tomorrow. That’s why we have this financial crisis.” Yet the consequences are not symmetric. “He who goes borrowing, goes sorrowing,” said Mr Cheng.

It was a quote from US founding father Benjamin Franklin.”

More here at The Telegraph (UK).

My Comment:

Three things give this remark away, in my humble opinion as a long-time propaganda watcher.

1. The speaker is the head of China’s green energy drive. That means he is likely to be on good terms with the green energy people in the US government, the financial center of which is Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs has extensive ties with China’s state sector and is counterparty to huge derivative contracts with state banks and companies.

2. It is notable that Mr. Cheng’s language echoes the language of the left-liberal governing class in emphasizing the role of Greenspan at the expense of everything else. Greenspan, being a former Randian and an avowed libertarian, is expendable to this group. Cheng does not mention the role of cheap money, the creation and trading of mountains of derivative contracts, and debt-based policies  that go back to long before 2004, and indeed long before Greenspan. He does not mention the Federal Reserve itself.

3. It’s also notable that Mr. Cheng echoes the left-liberal line about over-saving being a problem in China. But the problem is not thrift and savings (i.e. capital formation), which by definition can never be excessive in a capitalist economy where investment is put to work by genuine market forces. The problem is malinvestment caused by manipulation of the interest rate. And that’s a problem in which the Federal Reserve’s role is critical.

Major Market Move in Offing

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Looks like there’ll be a good deal of volatility ahead in the markets this coming week and through the fall:

*From Monday last week onward, New York has been riled up by the news out of China that Chinese SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) might walk away on derivative contracts that they think have been deeply manipulated. (They’re right on that). The SOEs involved are Air China, China Eastern, and Cosco.

*The derivatives are not mortgage-backed securities (the cause of the 2008 melt-down) but – likely- hedged oil futures in the OTC (over the counter) market, which is unregulated (that is, the SEOs hold synthetic longs).

*The threat – if it is that – has forced gold out of its summer trading range to within points of the $1000 mark, before falling back..and it pushed up the Chinese market by about 5%.(Sept 3)

*The counter-parties are 6 foreign banks, said to include Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JP Morgan. Goldman could take a hit on the contracts for around $15 billion, it’s rumored.

Note: The Chinese have been buying IMF bonds (50 billion) and watching the US meltdown and “stimulus” hocus-pocus with a good deal of warranted alarm, because all it means is their investments are being manipulated and driven down.

Obama’s reappointment of Bernanke was also taken as a bad sign by the Chinese. (correctly).

*Rumors have been swirling of further defaults of major US banks.

*The G20 has a preliminary meeting this weekend and the Chinese are said to have put the purchase of off-market gold on the table.

*The Chinese are pushing gold and silver on their populations, probably in anticipation of a currency meltdown.

*Meanwhile, Hong Kong has asked for all its gold to be returned from London.

*Last week, Germany asked for all its gold to be returned from London.

*Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and King County, Washington State have brought suit against Moody’s, S&P, and Morgan Stanley on fraud charges for the contracts they wrote, a case that would have massive implications for how other contracts are treated.

*[Oddly (?), Washington State is also where the earliest swine flu cases in the US were detected and where one of the largest outbreaks on campus just surfaced today – with some 2000 students at Washington State University coming down with the virus. Washington State had previously received large grants from Homeland Security for emergency preparations for pandemics, had TV Public Service Ads in place, had written up plans and practiced exercises].