Roubini: Significant Risks Of Gold Correction

Downside risks to gold, writes Nouriel Roubini at The Globe and Mail:

“But, since gold has no intrinsic value, there are significant risks of a downward correction. Eventually, central banks will need to exit quantitative easing and zero-interest rates, putting downward pressure on risky assets, including commodities. Or the global recovery may turn out to be fragile and anemic, leading to a rise in bearish sentiment on commodities – and in bullishness about the U.S. dollar.

Another downside risk is that the dollar-funded carry trade may unravel, crashing the global asset bubble that it, with the wave of monetary liquidity, has caused. And since the carry trade and the wave of liquidity are causing a global asset bubble, some of gold’s recent rise is also bubble-driven, with herding behaviour and “momentum trading” by investors pushing gold higher and higher. But all bubbles eventually burst. The bigger the bubble, the greater the collapse.

Gold’s rise is only partially justified by fundamentals. And it is not clear why investors should stock up on gold if the global economy dips into recession again and concerns about a near depression and rampant deflation rise sharply. If you truly fear a global economic meltdown, you should stock up on guns, canned food and other commodities that you can actually use in your log cabin.”

China Bubble: State Firms Bid Up Land Prices To Record Levels

China Daily:

“In spite of all the government’s tough talk against excessive home price hikes, the record land price for residential housing in Beijing was broken twice on Monday thanks to aggressive bids by State-owned enterprises.

The weeklong postponement of the land auction seemingly served to save policymakers, who were explaining to the National People’s Congress how they would prevent housing bubbles, from trouble.

Yet, the jaw-dropping results only underscored how differently these cash-rich State firms think about housing prices. It seems that all the measures that the government adopted to raise capital requirements and leverage restrictions have so far worked only to discourage private property developers while doing little to restrain the appetite of State firms for a bigger market share.

The record land sales on Monday certainly cast doubts on a previous official claim that not a single cent of the country’s 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package has flowed into the real estate sector. Worse, they fueled expectations of more price hikes to undermine government efforts to prevent housing bubbles.”

Steve Forbes: Fannie & Freddie Must Go, DDT Must Return

Steve Forbes points out that government subsidies in the housing market weren’t needed for Canadians to become home owners:

“The Bush Administration botched an opportunity in 2008 to put these entities in receivership, with the idea of either liquidating or privatizing them. A winding down of Fannie and Freddie would have led to a birth of new players, well-capitalized and ready and willing to buy, package and sell home mortgages–and subject to failure.

The Obama Administration won’t formally nationalize the current Fannie and Freddie because that would swell the official budget deficit. And it certainly won’t countenance the idea of privatizing them. That will have to wait until we have a Republican President. Fortunately, this individual will have a Congress with enough new members who won’t have been corrupted by Fannie and Freddie the way previous occupants on Capitol Hill were. Certainly public opinion will back privatization. In fact, the two companies should be recapitalized, broken up into at least a half-dozen entities and sent out into the real world, with no ties to Washington.

Studies have conclusively shown that Fannie and Freddie did virtually nothing to boost home ownership. Canada, for instance, has almost none of the props for housing that the U.S. has had, yet the proportion of its population owning homes wasn’t much different from that of the U.S. before the bubble.”

The article then ranges widely, moving from Michael Crichton (best-known, outside his fiction, for his skepticism about anthropogenic global warming) to the ban on DDT, which Forbes blames for a resurgence in malaria world-wide:

“Not only is malaria on the rise because we won’t use DDT to kill mosquitoes but so are other insect-borne diseases, such as dengue fever. “

My Comment:

On the GSE’s I agree with Forbes. But not on DDT, where his argument is one that activists in the field hotly rebut. Water-borne diseases, especially, are largely a product of poor sanitation.  And filthy water, they say, is also to blame for the return of malaria.

Forbes then makes the argument that DDT, properly used, doesn’t have the  bad effects attributed to it by Rachel Carson, in her seminal book, “Silent Spring.”

The operative word here is “properly used.”

(You could, after all, say as much about Credit Default Swaps. Properly used, they aren’t harmful either).

Anything can be “improperly used.” So where do you draw the line? What’s the proper use of DDT?

Experts say it should be confined to dusting the insides of homes, instead of the large-scale crop-dusting that had a toxic effect on the environment earlier. That sounds fairly reasonable, if the DDT is used along with more sustainable, local practices – draining and cleaning stagnant water and sewers, and, most important of all, improving public hygiene. Without that, chemicals are pointless in the long term.

More than half of India (to take an example) lacks access to toilets and defecates in public. Surely that fact, as well as the problem of wet waste, takes precedence in any discussion of health. That means the root of most diseases in India, including malaria, is poverty and bad habits, the solution to which really isn’t DDT, but economic development and cultural reform.

I did a piece on this called, “Cleaning House” (Alternet, Feb 5, 2004), where I discussed the phenomenon of Not In My Back Yard that prevents community best practices from being implemented on a larger scale.

“When I walk over to my nephew’s house, only a mile and a half away in a rural campus, my journey has a Victorian arduousness to it. I have to pick my way gingerly through the dusty path cutting across the field, alert for dozing vipers, lantana thorns, cantankerous goats tethered to the bushes, and random puddings of animal and human excreta. At first, it is a mystery where these come from because the villages are a good bit away. But distance does not dim the force of the NIMBY (not in my backyard) sentiment, which until recent years has been the motto of Indian civic life.”

Beyond poverty and flawed culture (and often driving them), there’s also the government.

The filth in public spaces is one of the tragedies of the commons. When everyone owns something, no one cares for it. That’s the fate of public space in India, socialist since independence in 1947, with a bureaucracy fattened by years of being a poster-child for poverty on the international aid circuit.

At least in the cases of Africa and Asia, then, the social and political context is absolutely crucial in arguments about economic liberty and technology. And the perspective from the ground, in the case of malaria and other tropical diseases, suggests a different kind of technology from bio-tech, one in which regulation isn’t much of an issue at all.

Jason Gale, Bloomberg, May 2007:

“Nair says modern sewers aren’t the answer for India. The country can’t afford to waste water by flushing it down a latrine. Instead, she’s encouraging airplane-style commodes that are vacuum cleared or toilets that are attached to contained pits rather than systems that pipe the effluent miles away for treatment. In Nair’s world, recycling human excrement for use as fertilizer is preferable.

“We need to invent our own devices which are cost- effective, environmentally sustainable and go with our people,” she says. “We cannot afford the things which are simply things that some civil engineer learned somewhere.”

Converting excreta that have been properly dried for 6-24 months into plant food uses less water than traditional sewage systems and is less likely to pollute waterways, Payden says.

Bartram says composted sewage that’s been handled correctly can be used in agriculture and for other beneficial purposes with negligible risk to human health. The challenge is to sanitize it so that disease-carrying organisms are eliminated.”

If cleaning the streets is more important than spraying DDT, in long-term control of malaria in India, then we’ve by-passed the regulatory problems associated with the chemical altogether.

In this case, as in others, activities that have a direct effect on the eco-system or the human organism (DDT) and activities that don’t (housing subsidies) can’t really be yoked together in analysis without problems. I tend to think that using the same model of reasoning for both, then, doesn’t yield correct answers, because it’s a function of a certain degree of ideological fundamentalism or literalism.

Everything is always a matter of interpretation.

Update:

In much the same way, I’d argue that the corrupt culture in Wall Street has to change before bans on this or that financial instrument are considered (that is, if one were to even concede that bans were necessary). Which is why the market-reform movement and the prosecution of crime come first, before changes in regulation.

Update:

The government of India’s rather optimistic schedule is to achieve its sanitation goals by 2010 and it’s using economic incentives to get there. ($48 for each installed toilet in Haryana).* It isn’t likely to get there that fast, but the program does suggest one area in which you can invest confidently – sanitation technology.

*I’m not endorsing this or any other government program, I’m merely noting it.

Gold Down On Biggest Volume In History..

Via Economic Policy Journal:

“The exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, that holds gold bullion was down 5% Friday afternoon on record trading volume as the gold price fell. More than 70 million shares have traded hands with an hour of trading to go. It’s the highest volume in its history. The gold ETF was launched in late 2004 and has assets of more than $40 billion”

China Bubble, China Trouble

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF’s Managing Director ended a 6-day trip in Asia by telling Chinese authorities to continue with their stimulus program.

“The main goal is to help with public demand, weak private demand. And the reason why we have to continue with stimulus is because a self-sustaining private demand is not yet visible,” he said.”

He also called for

1) Asian countries to rebalance their economies by becoming less export oriented and fostering internal demand

2) for the renminbi to strengthen to raise household purchasing power and labor’s share of income

Strauss-Kahn said he anticipated Asian growth of nearly 6% for next year (double the forecast for the global economy) and called for Asian leadership in the global financial crisis.

What does this mean?

Let’s start with Eclectica Fund Manager, Hugh Hendry, cited in “Outside the Box” (JohnMauldin@InvestorsInsight.com). Hendry writes:

“Now, if we repeat the Japanese experience then it is possible that nominal US GDP will rise from $14trn today to perhaps just $16trn in ten years time….. The Chinese are building capacity to meet a world where US nominal GDP is $25trn in ten years time. I fear they could be in for a nasty shock.”

That is, the IMF is banking on the remninbi strengthening so that domestic household expenditure can pick up the slack from weakening US consumer demand because there’s huge overcapacity in China.

Serendipitously, just as Strauss-Kahn and the Chinese premier Hu Jintao agreed that domestic demand has to be stimulated, along comes this Bloomberg report that quotes China International Capital Corp. as predicting that Chinese steel demand will rise 12% rather than the 5% predicted by the World Steel Association.

Now, where will the steel go? To a boom in housing construction and auto manufacture.

I blogged earlier that Jim Chanos, the dark prince of short-selling, has declared China a bubble set to burst, on the strength of these mysterious auto purchases that seem to be entirely production driven. One one hand, the government is using its dollars to manufacture cars, demand be damned. But the government has also committed to stimulate demand by social spending (on education and health) that’s intended eventually to make the Chinese loosen up…. and spend on those big-ticket items, like cars and houses.

But there’s an irony in thinking about China’s demand as affecting the commodity market. The irony, says Hendry, is that China is the commodity market.

“Huge demand and numerous small players are a perfect setup for price increases by the Big Three miners, which often cite high spot prices as the reason for jagging up contract prices. But the spot market is relatively small, and mines can easily manipulate spot prices by reducing supply. On the other hand, numerous Chinese steel mills simultaneously want to buy ore to sustain production so their governments can report higher GDP rates, even if higher GDP is money-losing. China’s steel industry is structured to hurt China’s best interests.

The Chinese government is very much wedded to it’s 8% growth target and will do whatever it takes to come close to that target – including flooding the domestic banks with a wall of cheap money to lend as economic stimulus. However, preventing a downturn with easy money is a dangerous way to reflate the economy.

As profitability for the businesses that serve the real economy remain weak, there has been of shift of investment in the first half of 2009 disproportionately into property, stock and commodity markets rather than private sector capital formation. This shift in the medium term threatens to undermine China’s financial stability. Thus, China is experiencing a relatively weak real economy and red hot asset markets.

The Chinese imports that revived the bulk carrier market this year were mostly for speculative inventories. Bank loans were so cheap and easy to get that many commodity distributors used financing for speculation……

Even more foreboding is a looming real estate bubble. The real estate sector in China is especially critical to the bulk carrier market because approximately 50% of Chinese demand for steel is generated by the construction industry. Most Western shipping forecasts are based on unlimited future need in China for new construction. The reality is quite different. China’s urban living space is 28 square meters per person, quite high by international standard. China’s urbanization is about 50%. It could rise to 70-75%. Afterwards the rural population would decline on its own due to its high average age.

So China’s urban population may rise by another 300 million people. If we assume they all can afford property (a laughable notion at today’s price), Chinese cities may need an additional 8.4 billion square meters. China’s work-in-progress is over 2 billion square meters. There is enough land out there for another 2. The construction industry has production capacity of about 1.5 billion square meters per annum. Absolute oversupply, i.e., there are not enough people for all the buildings, could happen quite soon.

…..The nationwide average price [of housing] is about three months of salary per square meter, probably the highest in the world! Consequently, a lot of properties can’t be rented out at all. Those that can bring in 3% yield, barely compensating for depreciation……

Some argue that China’s property is always like this: appreciation is the return. This is not true. The property market dropped dramatically from 1995-2001 during a strong dollar period. Property prices could drop like Japan has experienced in the past two decades, which would destroy the banking system.

Housing To Recover Peak Only in 2020, Says Expert

A gloomy forecast of where the US housing market is going at US News & World Report — Nowhere.

“Economist Celia Chen of Moody’s Economy.com has published a forecast suggesting that residential real estate could take 10 years to recover in most states-and 20 years in Florida and California.

Chen predicts that house prices will stop falling by the second quarter of 2010……..
By the time house prices stop falling, they’ll be down 43 percent from peak prices reached in 2006, as measured by the Case-Shiller home-price index.
That will mark the deepest housing correction since 1890, and probably ever in the United States (meaningful data go back only to the late 19th century)……….
Nationwide, price levels won’t regain the peaks of 2006 until 2020. In the worst-hit states, Florida and California, the rebound will take until 2030. Five other states won’t hit their 2006 peaks until after 2023. Anybody who doubts that it could take that long should consider the real estate bust in Japan, where prices are still down by half from the peaks they reached 15 years ago.
Other states, mainly those where the housing boom was muted, will bounce back faster. Homes in Texas, Oklahoma, and a handful of southern and Farm Belt states could regain peak prices within seven years, after falling by less than 10 percent.

My Comment

The article goes on to point out, correctly, that housing takes up about 17% of the economy, so a prolonged Japanese-type slump makes any kind of “green shoot” being hyped today more likely to be astro-turf than lawn.

Actually, housing takes up more than 17% of the economy. If you factor in all the related services, from construction to home furnishings to financing, it probably takes up between 30%-40% of the economy.

Add to that the ongoing slump in commercial real estate, world-over, and you can see why some of us are legging it.

Some anecdotal evidence:

I spoke to an Indian management consultant recently. He’d just returned from visits to China and Cambodia and was extremely pessimistic about the prospects for real estate recovery there economic recovery in China.  He suggested a mark-down of about 40% from current prices.

Offices are sitting vacant everywhere. Traveling in the north of Morocco in 2008, I visited one of the hot-spots of investment – the coast from Tangier to Tetuane.  Hotels and apartment complexes were springing up on every available expanse of beach. But a businessman who was involved in exporting and importing clothes (from China) and semi-precious stones (from India) was skeptical. He said a lot of the residential boom there was tied up with the government’s effort to develop tourism and some of it was driven by drug money in search of a place to hide. Business, he said was not so good. He’d been trying to sell a warehouse for over a year, and despite a 15% markdown, had found no takers. He showed me a warehouse full of inexpensive women’s clothes, suits for $4-$5, made in China.

There were no buyers to be had. He was even thinking of shipping them to the US, because shipping costs had fallen so low. At least in the US, he said, you could find a market….

Everything, it seems, depends on the American consumer….