“Home loan colossus Countrywide Financial Corp. announced Friday that it would slash as many as 12,000 jobs, or nearly 20% of its workforce, saying the downturn in the housing market and the credit crunch related to sub-prime loans have created the worst conditions ever seen by the modern mortgage industry.
The announcement by Calabasas-based Countrywide came hours after a smaller rival in the mortgage business, Pasadena-based savings and loan IndyMac Bancorp Inc., warned that it probably would record its first loss since 1998 in the third quarter. IndyMac said it would cut 1,000 jobs, 10% of its total.
Countrywide, the No. 1 home lender, funded $284.2 billion in mortgages this year through July 31, up from $255.8 billion in the same period in 2006, but said it expected lending to decline 25% next year….”
More by E. Scott Reckard at the Los Angeles Times.
Is this just a subprime lender problem?
At Thoughts from the Frontline, John Mauldin doesn’t think so:
“Goldman Sachs suggests home values could drop as much as 20%. Gary Shilling has been saying 25%. We don’t have time and space this week to go into housing prices, but many of the mortgages sold in the past two years only made sense in a housing market that was rising by 10-15% a year. A market that is dropping 10-15% a year, as it may do in the next 12 months, is only marginally be helped by a Fed funds cut.
But that does not mean they should not cut. They should, simply because the economy is clearly slowing, and the risks are now to the downside.
I have maintained for a long time that the bursting of the housing bubble would cause a serious slowdown or a recession in the economy. My critics would counter that housing is only 5-7% of the economy and a housing recession would not be enough to drag the whole economy down.
They are wrong for the following reasons. First, rising home values have allowed homeowners to use their homes as an ATM through mortgage equity withdrawals, which have added almost 2% to GDP annually over the last five years. That is now evaporating.
Secondly, falling home construction and lower home sales means fewer jobs not just in the direct home building market, but in the parts of the economy related to the home building markets, like mortgage brokers, real estate agents, hardware and furniture, etc. As an example, Countrywide announced a planned 10-12,000 person lay-off, when just a few weeks ago they were thinking of expansion, as they now think new mortgages may drop 25% in 2008. Fewer jobs mean lower consumer spending.
Consumers are not going to spend as much due to the wealth effect. If you feel your house was going to be a major part of your retirement, and now the value is going down, you are going to be more cautious and actually think about saving. This has been a dangerous prediction for 50 years, but I think consumer spending, some 71% of the US economy, is due to slow down. Year over year growth could drop below inflation later this year.
Further, with all the additional homes coming onto the market due to foreclosures, hone values are going to drop even more, and new home construction, which peaked at an annual run rate of 2,000,000 homes per year, is likely to fall to less than 1,000,000. We are currently at a level of 1,400,000, so we are not yet close to the bottom.
Rising unemployment. A housing market looking at the deepest recession in values since the Great Depression. A consumer under siege. A visibly slowing economy……”
Rate cut or not?
Since he seems to be setting himself up as a foreign policy advisor, maybe we should ask Osama Bin Laden.
“Iraq and Afghanistan and their tragedies; and the reeling of many of you under the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and real estate mortgages; global warming and its woes; and the abject poverty and tragic hunger in Africa; all of this is but one side of the grim face of this global system,” he said….”