Prechter – Debt Is the Problem, Not Paper Printing

Goldseek radio has an interview with Robert Prechter here.

Prechter’s 2002 book, “Conquer the Crash,” predicted the current economic collapse and this is an interesting and wide-ranging interview. Prechter is a renowned Elliot Wave theorist and a long-time prophet of depression.

Summing up his most important points:

*We have been in a developing deflation since 2002

*Debt is the problem, not paper-printing.

*Gold will hold value and do well, but it won’t go to the moon

*Cash is a good place to be

*The market will go down for a replay of 2008, in spades

People Leaving Florida and California..

When bad times came in earlier days, Americans were likely to up and leave town for greener pastures.
This time, they’re hunkering down. It’s the new depression mentality.

Those that are moving seem to be moving out of the two states that had the biggest booms in housing – Florida and California.The reason is clear. With the housing market in crisis, the economies of the two sunshine states have been hit proportionately hard.

CNN Money reports:

“The Florida economy is based on growth and home construction,” said Lang. With building projects dying on the vine, unemployment soared to 7.6% for the state in 2008. It’s now up to 10.7%.

The same job problems plague many California cities, especially Central Valley towns like Stockton, Fresno and Merced. Construction-related job losses helped send state unemployment to 8.7% by December 2008 from 5.9% a year earlier. Today, some cities report breathtakingly high unemployment rates: 30.2% in El Centro; 17.6% in Merced; and 17.2% in Yuba City.

So, if people aren’t heading for the good life in California and Florida, where are they going?
D.C., Alaska and Wyoming. (Seriously……

…To be fair, however, small populations in these places convert modest in-migration increases into large percentage gains. They’re each among the smallest states (or district) in the Union. That’s just the opposite of California and Florida where each percentage point represents hundreds of thousands of people….In terms of net migration — those moving in minus those leaving — Texas was the star performer in 2008, with the population growing by 140,000.”

My Comment:

I thought of Texas – way back in 2003. Houston or San Antonio, I thought. I liked the fact that Houston had a large Asian community and was reckoned one of the best places to begin a new business and one of the best places for immigrants. Property was also reasonably priced and the place had a healthy libertarian community. It’s reputed to be a safe, family-friendly city – and greener than you’d think. And there are all those jobs in the energy business.

But there are negatives. Both places are a long way off from anywhere else. In many ways, you’d be going to a new country. To get to any other city in Texas, let alone anywhere else, is a long haul. Houston’s roads are congested. The housing is largely modern – no old architecture. The weather is extremely hot and humid, and there’s hurricane season. I told a friend of mine he’d find me on a ranch, chewing baccy, spitting, and eying down rattlesnakes. I’d fit right in, I said. I probably would have. But I would have lost something in fitting in. In Uruguay, subtly, I feel I gain by fitting in.

And the prison system – not that I was planning on ending up in it – has serious problems. I am not sure it would have been the ideal place for a political blogger.

I still wonder about Texas and if I made a mistake coming here. My reasoning was that if I was going to uproot that much, I might as well go abroad, where I’d also have the advantage of being out of the country. But I admit to being conflicted about it all…still.

What made up my mind for me ultimately was the privacy issue. You can move to Texas, but you can’t move out of the way of the snoop state. And you can’t get away from litigators and stalkers…from enemies with their malevolence and the government with its benevolence….

Robert Prechter on Closing Doors..

The July 2009 Elliot Wave Theorist by Robert Prechter has some ominous warnings.

Prechter warns that as the depression deepens, more and more avenues of escape are going to be shut off. He lists three that have become difficult:

1. You used to be able to invest in tax-free foreign annuities. Now you have to pay tax on them.
2. You could deposit your money at any Swiss bank. Now, harassment by US authorities has led many of those banks to shut the door on American depositors.
3. You could emigrate to New Zealand easily. Now, independent operators without a government license who try to help immigrants face trouble.

The Ghost Ships of Singapore

“Some experts believe the ratio of container ships sitting idle could rise to 25 per cent within two years in an extraordinary downturn that shipping giant Maersk has called a ‘crisis of historic dimensions‘. Last month the company reported its first half-year loss in its 105-year history.

Martin Stopford, managing director of Clarksons, London’s biggest ship broker, says container shipping has been hit particularly hard: ‘In 2006 and 2007 trade was growing at 11 per cent. In 2008 it slowed down by 4.7 per cent. This year we think it might go down by as much as eight per cent. If it costs £7,000 a day to put the ship to sea and if you only get £6,000 a day, than you have got a decision to make.

‘Yet at the same time, the supply of container ships is growing. This year, supply could be up by around 12 per cent and demand is down by eight per cent. Twenty per cent spare is a lot of spare of anything – and it’s come out of nowhere.’

These empty ships should be carrying Christmas over to the West. All retailers will have already ordered their stock for the festive season long ago. With more than 92 per cent of all goods coming into the UK by sea, much of it should be on its way here if it is going to make it to the shelves before Christmas.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession.html#ixzz0RB7WbWSO

via  Lew Rockwell.

World Bank Global Outlook: No Green Shoots

This harsh reality is reflected in the World Bank Global Outlook Report of June 22, 2009.
It notes the following for 2009:

*Global growth is set to fall by 2.9%
*World trade is likely to shrink by nearly 10%
*Industrial production in rich countries will drop by 15% from August 2008
*Developed economies will contract by 4.5% in 2009 and grow only in 2010 and 2011
*The US economy will decline by 3%
*Private capital flows to developing countries are likely to be halved, from $US 707 billion (2008) to $US 363 billion (2009)
*Industrial production in developing countries, excluding China, is set to fall by 10%.
*GDP growth in developing countries will fall from 5.9% (2008) to 1.2%.