Crazy Like A Fox: RBI Figures Suggest Fraud Not Ineptitude

At newsclick.in someone crunches the numbers on the conflicting reports put out by the Reserve Bank of India’s on the number of new notes issued:

RBI’s figures on the number and value of new notes it has put in circulation do not add up. The discrepancy is of more than half a trillion rupees. Is RBI trying to deceive people by claiming to print more notes than it actually did? Or is the RBI, under the new governor, too inept to get its figures right?

[Lila: As I’ve blogged over and over, nothing about the chaos around DeMo indicates it was a blunder.  And if it is crazy, it is only the craziness of the fox. DeMo is planned chaos intended to conceal the insertion of fake currency, the funding of terror outfits, and the creation of fresh money-laundering opportunities – in short,  the objective of DeMo, as a black op, was THE DIRECT OPPOSITE OF MODI’S STATED GOALS.

It is a foreign-corporate attack on the country coming from the highest level, dressed up to look like a nationalist pro-poor policy. It enables gigantic corruption and terrorist-funding, while pretending to defend against corruption and terror.]

After demonetising the old Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes, the RBI claims to have issued new notes worth 5.93 lakh crore. If we calculate the net value of the notes printed and issued by RBI, – as per their various press notes – we can account only for Rs. 5.27 lakh crore. More than half a lakh crore rupees – Rs. 63,000 thousand crore to be exact – are missing from the 5.93 lakh crore amount.  Simply put, RBI’s numbers just do not add up.

In December, RBI began releasing data on return of the old demonetised notes to the banking system, and also publishing data on the number and value of fresh notes issued to replace the old notes.

In a press note released on December 7th, (Interestingly, RBI’s 7th December’s press release has now been taken down) the RBI gives a break-up of the currency notes made available to the public between November 10th and December 5th. According to this, currency worth a total of Rs. 3.8 lakh crore has been issued out in this period. Rs.1.06 lakh crore was in notes of smaller denominations – the total number of these notes is 19.1 billion. The remaining amount comprised of Rs. 2000 and Rs. 500.

Again, on December 22nd, RBI released a press note , with a new set of figures.  According to the December 22nd note, between November 10th and December 19th, the central bank – the RBI — released currency worth total of Rs. 5.93 lakh crore to the public. The new press note also said that this amount was made up of 20.2 billion currency notes of smaller denominations, and 2.2 billion notes of higher denominations.

This means that, after December 7th, RBI gave out an additional 1.1 billion currency notes of smaller denomination (20.2 billion minus 19.1 billion). Even if, we were to assume that all these additional notes are in denomination of Rs.100, this would mean and addition of Rs. 0.11 lakh crore. This works out to a total worth of all smaller denomination notes issued as on December 22nd as Rs. 1.17 lakh crore: Rs. 1.06 lakh crore as per December 7th press note plus Rs. 0.11 lakh crore.

Out of the Rs. 5.9 lakh crore that RBI claims to have issued till December 19th, if Rs. 1.17 lakh crore is of smaller denominations, then Rs. 4.73 lakh crore would need to be in notes of higher denominations (Rs. 5.9 lakh crore minus Rs.1.17 crore).

RBI’s December 22nd press note states that it released 2.2 billion currency notes in high denominations. Even if all these notes were released in only Rs. 2,000 denomination, it totals up to only Rs. 4.4 lakh crore;  Rs. 33,000 crore remains unaccounted (Rs.4.73 lakh crore minus Rs. 4.4 lakh crore)

In fact, the missing money is likely to be much higher. We know that RBI has been releasing Rs. 500 notes along with Rs. 2,000 notes – even if in smaller amounts. In response to an unstarred question raised in Rajya Sabha on the composition of newly printed notes, the Minister of State for Finance, Arjun Ram Meghwal, on 6th December in a written answer provided figures that indicate that about 9% (in numbers, not values) of the newly printed notes supplied up to 29th November were in 500s, the rest in 2000s.

If we consider that 10% of the new notes of high denomination are now Rs. 500, and 90% are Rs. 2,000,  this works out to 0.2 billion as the number of Rs. 500 notes and 2 billion as the number of Rs.2,000 notes. This makes for a total of value of these notes to be Rs. 4.1 lakh crore: Rs. 4 lakh crore in 2000s and Rs. 0.1 crore in 500s.

The big question is, what happened to the remaining Rs. 63 thousand crore (Rs 4.73 lakh crore minus Rs. 4.1 lakh crore), which RBI claims to have issued to the public?

Is RBI trying to deceive people by claiming to print more notes than it did? ”

India Top Five Target Of US Spying

A 2013 article at Esamkriti.com describes why the US spies on India:

Clues to a changing world

In March 2013 the NSA picked up 9.6 billion pieces of information from India’s computer networks, making it the fifth tracked country in the world after Iran, Pakistan, Jordan and Egypt. The top four are all Muslim countries, with Jordan also a close ally, so it’s a no-brainer why the NSA is targeting them. But has the world shifted so much on its geopolitical axis that India is now a bigger target than Russia and China?

There are two possibilities. One, the Americans are making sure India remains on its side of the fence. Secondly, if the NSA has been able to steal more data from India than from Russia and China, it only shows how powerless developing countries are against well-equipped spy agencies.

Why India is a top 5 target

In March 2013 the NSA picked up 9.6 billion pieces of information from India’s computer networks, making India the fifth tracked country in the world after Iran, Pakistan, Jordan and Egypt. If India is now a bigger target than Russia in American eyes, it only shows how the world has shifted on its geopolitical axis.

Unlike China and Russia where the United States can pinch industrial (http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/06/tianhe/) secrets, India offers nothing equivalent. In almost every technological area, the Americans are ahead of India.

[Lila: This is actually inaccurate. There are plenty of areas in which the US is very eager to pinch or adopt Indian technical breakthroughs and medical innovations and the eagerness the US shows in joint ventures with Indian research institutions is proof of this. Moreover, one of the great objectives of the digitilization of India is to make Indian trade secrets and scientific research even more open to theft than it already is.]

But India is far more important. As their economies surge, India and China are reverting to their ancient duopoly. Research conducted by Angus Maddison and his colleagues at the University of Groningen shows India had 25 per cent of global income from the year 1500 CE through 1700 CE. China accounted for 35 per cent. In the year 1 CE, India’s share was 33 per cent, China’s 26 per cent and the Roman Empire’s 21 per cent.

Historically India and China were the engines of global trade. Roman emperor Tiberius and the historian Pliny complained about the drain of wealth (http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-10-21/ahmedabad/28239734_1_bharuch-port-book) to India.

An India-China duopoly is a deep-rooted Western fear, and under the BRICS umbrella it might well happen. (Before the British created the border problems, the India-China border was as free as the United States-Canada frontier. Venetian traveller Marco Polo wrote in his memoirs that the Chinese emperor sent him on a fleet which carried a princess who was to marry an Indian prince.) In the 21st century as India and China are once again poised to be the two largest economies, both will be intensely targeted by Western spy agencies.

Weapon worries

Ironically, India’s improvement in ties with the United States is likely to lead to even more American spying. The Americans have always been paranoid about Russia acquiring their weapons technologies via India. Earlier, it simply banned arms sales to India; now with the decline of the American economy, India is a valued – though not trusted – customer. If only to feel assured that its high-tech armaments and aircraft are not being taken apart in Moscow, American spies will be keeping a close watch.

They have plenty of experience in that area. One of the earliest instances of American meddling in India was back in the 1950s when the CIA secretly provided cash to the Catholic Syrian Christian church to destabilise the democratically elected government of Kerala. On another occasion the CIA provided funds to discredit communists in West Bengal.

According to former US ambassador to India, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, “Both times the money was given to the Congress Party which had asked for it. Once it was given to Mrs Indira Gandhi herself, who was then a party official.”

Islamic angle

The increasing radicalisation of Indian Muslims and the big uptick in Islamic terrorist activity in India is a worry not just for India but also for the West, as India’s Muslim terrorists are now linking up on a multinational scale. It won’t be long before some of them are seen in Chechnya or other troublespots.

It is, therefore, understandable why the top four in the NSA list are Muslim countries. American espionage on India and Indian Muslims is, therefore, as inevitable as American spying on Saudi Arabia and Iran. In fact, American paranoia is justified as the Indian government – with an eye on Muslim votes – is victimizing its own agents who have played a key role in eliminating Muslim terrorists.

India and US: Trust deficit

The United States doesn’t implicitly trust India in a way it trusts Britain, Canada or Poland. After 9/11 the Americans encouraged the Indian government to send RAW and IB agents to enroll in counter-terrorism courses in the United States. This had two major consequences. One, it helped the United States identify hundreds of Indian agents who now cannot undertake undercover operations. Two, it has helped the CIA recruit Indian secret service agents. The most well-known case was that of RAW agent Rabindra Singh, who became an American double agent on one his many trips to the United States.

The Hindu’s Pravin Swami argues that India’s establishment is more vulnerable now than at any point in the past. “The large number of politicians, bureaucrats and military officers whose children study or work in the US provide an easy source of influence. Efforts to recruit from this pool are not new. In the early 1980s, the son of then RAW chief N. Narasimhan left the US after efforts were made to approach the spy chief through him. Narasimhan’s son had been denied a visa extension, and was offered its renewal in return for his cooperation with the US’ intelligence services. According to a senior RAW officer, not all would respond with such probity.”

Global backlash

The good money is on an international backlash against the United States and Britain. The Germans are already calling for the “United Stasi of America” to put a leash on the NSA. According to John Villasenor, professor of electrical engineering and public policy at UCLA, (http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml) “The NSA leaks will put wind in the sails of non-US intelligence services aiming to ramp up espionage targeting American businesses. Budgets for spying on American businesses will grow, and people to do the work will be easier to hire.”

Also, the Defence Science Board says the United States is not prepared to counter a full-scale cyber conflict. China’s ability to penetrate the world’s most secure communication system indicates the Board is spot on.

No business like the spy business

In “Crown Jewels: The British Secrets at the Heart of the KGB Archive” author Nigel West shows the extent to which countries will go to steal secrets. One summer day during the 1950s in Moscow, KGB agents were tailing the wife of the British ambassador. The woman had been obtaining classified documents from a Russian, while on her daily ‘walks’ through Moscow’s streets. Realising she was being followed the ambassador’s wife tucked the documents in her underpants and tried to run towards the embassy.

She was caught, the documents were retrieved, and the British envoy quickly quit his job.

Thanks to advances in communication, spies no longer have to steal documents in such comical fashion. It is precisely because of the vulnerability of spies on the ground that the NSA has taken electronic eavesdropping to a new level.

Chinese Nuclear Sub Spotted Spying On Indian Warships

The symbolism of the Jade Helm exercises in the US last summer portended Chinese-fronted aggressions/incursions around the globe.  I described the Rothschild China links elsewhere on this blog. Now, following on open economic warfare on the country, this:

From FirstPost:

A Chinese nuclear submarine had reportedly been docked at Karachi last year, according to satellite images revealed by Google Earth. This is worrying for India because according to an NDTV report, the submarine was likely being used to scrutinise the movement of Indian warships more closely than ever before.

The report also said that the docked submarine was the Type 093 Shang submarine. A nuclear-powered submarine has an unlimited range of operations because nuclear reactors do not need much refuelling.

The image was first spotted by a satellite imagery expert @rajfortyseven, who shared images of the docked submarine on Twitter.

The NDTV report also said that the submarine is armed with six torpedo tubes from which sophisticated anti-ship missiles can be fired. This report came to light merely a day after another report, recently published by the Ministry of Shipping, which said that India is far behind in all the key performance indicators related to port-led development than China.

Underlining India’s inability to optimise on its richly endowed maritime advantages in the last half a century, the report said that China leads India by a factor of seven times to 16 times on the measured parameters.

On Thursday, Chinese media also criticised New Delhi for carrying out Agni-IV and V missile tests whose range covers the Chinese mainland. “India has broken the UN’s limits on its development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missile,” the ruling Communist Party-run tabloid Global Times said in its editorial.

Islamic Thinkers Or NWO Operatives?

From the blog of a Muslim sociologist, an analysis of a leading Islamic thinker from Afghan, who turns out to have been a freemason and possibly a British operative:

Jamal ud Din Al Afghani, and Muhammad Abduh are documented to be freemasons in the service of British Government, through their membership in the Oxford freemasons movement established for the purpose of creating Salafi movement in outside Britain under the freemason control which was established by Benjamin Disraeli, the Prime Minister of Great Britain.

Doubts over the relationships between Salafi leaders at the start ( Jama ul Din al Afghani and Muhammad Abdu) and the British government are spelled as documented reports that both leaders were members of the Oxford freemasons which was established in the 1820’s. The group of missionaries was appointed by a combined movement of Oxford University, the Anglican Church, and Kings College of London University, under Scottish Rite Freemasonry, as part of a plot to foster the creation of an occult brotherhood in the Muslim world, dedicated to the use of terrorism on behalf of the Illuminati in the City of London (1)

The leading promoters of the Oxford Movement were Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, Lord Palmerston of the Palladian Rite, and Edward Bullwer-Lytton, the leader of a branch of Rosicrucianism that developed from the Asiatic Brethren. The Oxford movement was also supported by the Jesuits. Also involved were the British royal family itself, and many of its leading prime ministers and aides.

Benjamin Disraeli was Grand Master of Freemasonry, as well as knight of the Order of the Garter. It was in Coningsby, that he confessed, through a character named Sidonia, modeled on his friend Lionel de Rothschild, that, “the world is governed by very different personages from what is imagined by those who are not behind the scenes.” Of the influence of the secret societies, Disraeli also remarked, in Parliamentary debate:

www.hasanyahya.com

“It is useless to deny. . . a great part of Europe ­ the whole of Italy and France, and a great portion of Germany, to say nothing of other countries ­ are covered with a network of these secret societies, just as the superficies of the earth is now being covered with railroads. And what are their objects? They do not attempt to conceal them. They do not want constitutional government. They do not want ameliorated institutions; they do not want provincial councils nor the recording of votes; they want. . . an end to ecclesiastical establishments.”(2)

Throughout his forty-year career as a British intelligence agent, Jamal ud al Afghani was guided by two British Islamic and cult specialists, Wilfred Scawen Blunt and Edward G. Browne. E. G. Browne was Britain’s’ leading Orientalist of the nineteenth century, and numbered among his protégés at Cambridge University’s Orientalist department Harry “Abdullah” St. John B. Philby, a British intelligence specialist behind the Wahhabi movement. Wilfred S. Blunt, another member of the British Orientalist school, was given the responsibility by the Scottish Rite Masons to organize the Persian and the Middle East lodges. Al Afghani was their primary agent.

Very little is known of Jamal ud Din al Afghani’s origins. Despite the appellation “Afghani”, which he adopted and by which he is known, there are some reports that he was a Jew. On the other hand, some scholars believe that he was not an Afghan but a Iranian Shiah. And, despite posing as a reformer of orthodox Islam, al Afghani also acted as proselytizer of the Bahai faith, the first recorded project of the Oxford Movement, a creed that would become the heart of the Illuminati’s one-world-religion agenda.”

97% Banned Indian Notes Were White, Not Black

More proof that eradication of corruption could not possibly have been the motivation for the cash ban in this piece at Livemint.com:

All but 0.7 trillion  of the notes banned have been deposited, against the 5 trillion short-fall anticipated by the Modi govt, proving that almost all (97%) the banned notes were part of the legitimate cash-based economy now crippled by the ban:

Indians have deposited nearly all the currency bills outlawed at the end of the deadline last year, according to people with knowledge of the matter, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s drive to unearth unaccounted wealth and fight corruption.

Banks have received Rs14.97 trillion ($220 billion) as of 30 December, the deadline for handing in the old bank notes, the people said, asking not to be identified citing rules for speaking with the media. The government had initially estimated about Rs5 trillion of the Rs15.4 trillion rendered worthless by the sudden move on 9 November to remain undeclared as it may have escaped the tax net illegally, known locally as black money.”

The livemint.com piece, naturally, suggests that this was all a huge Modi blunder.

That doesn’t wash at all.

“Monumental blunder” is a kind of fall-back, limited hang-out position, and it’s being pushed by all the usual suspects (major media, globalist outfits, former globalist stooges, like Manmohan Singh).

Any kind of clear-sighted look at the facts shows that there was no blunder involved. Urjit Patel, the RBI governor, has himself said as much.

The repeated use of globalist memes, the date of 9/11 (which is how Indians write 11/9), the election of Trump on the same day the notes went into effect, the Gates connection, the McKinsey report, the involvement of De La Rue, the Sahara-Birla link, the Mallya Rothschild account, all these and multiple other factors show DeMo to have been a fully intended, carefully crafted “shock-awe” attack…

62 and counting RBI directives over 50 days cannot be error. They are intended to produce maximum chaos and trauma in the population.

2000 rupees notes printed with major defects (missing the head of Gandhi on some, running pink in water in some others), fake counterfeit-detection machinery,  all these facilitate counterfeiting, not security.

IT raids destroy political opponents in Tamil Nadu and Bengal; they are not directed against corruption at the very top.

This is economic war. Make no mistake.

New Indian Depositor Bill: Grandma Takes The Punch For Globalists

The New Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance Bill of 2016  outs itself  with its use of the phrase “creative destructionto endorse the need for a quick resolution of bank and firm failure.

“Creative Destruction” in this usage is a  Marxist term, popularized by the economist Schumpeter and subsequently appropriated by neo-liberal economists, as well as  perpetual-war- theorists of the new world order, that describes the need for “capitalism” to “ceaselessly devalue existing wealth (whether through war, dereliction, or regular and periodic economic crises) in order to clear the ground for the creation of new wealth.”

That’s wikipedia.

“Isms,” however, do nothing. So I would replace the word “capitalism” there with “capitalists.”

And, being of a skeptical turn of mind, would replace even “capitalist” with “globalist cabal manipulating capital.”

As I blogged before, the reassuring sound of “deposit insurance” should not blind us to the fact that the bill actually demotes protection of depositors – the original mandate of the RBI act of 194 – to second place. The RBI’s new mandate is the ubiquitous one of “financial stability.”

On behalf of financial stability – which, in effect, means some institutions are “too big to fail, too big to jail,”  the new bill and the proposed new bankruptcy procedures – get around the standard Indian legal procedure and have complete authority to resolve any issue of bad debt, by winding up the firm/bank and/or restructuring the debt. In essence, that means, a small, overarching and centralized outfit can decide whom to bail out, whom not to, and who gets to foot the bill.

Bank depositors over 1 lakh (Rs 100000 or about $1800-2000) are unsecured creditors of the bank who will be stiffed in the face of senior debt holders.

In short, grandma takes the punch for the globalists.

Cyprus II: Bill Puts Indian Depositors On Hook For Bank Failure

Meera Nangia, professor of commerce at the University of Delhi in The Wire:

“The declining profits are indicative of the persistent efforts by banks in the last two years to recognise the extent of irrecoverable loans. Simultaneously, banks are undertaking fresh initiatives to liquidate bad loan accounts. The government too is keen to facilitate this process of recovery from defaulting borrowers. The new Insolvency and Bankruptcy code was notified on May 28, 2016.

[Lila: Referenced in the Edmond de  Rothschild memo, previously mentioned here.]

Effectively, demonetisation has ensured that the cash lying outside the banking system (given our predominant cash economy and the parallel black economy) is now within the banking system, in the accounts of the customers to whom it belongs. The government campaign on digital payments is ensuring that banks remain flushed with liquidity. Liquidity implies that banks can keep a small ‘fraction’ of the deposits as reserve, and lend out the rest to credit-worthy borrowers.

However, credit off-take is likely to be slow since it will take time for the demonetisation hit economy to take off. It will take a long time for the banks to make profits that can completely wipe out the losses on account of NPAs. In the coming year, as banks net their losses, there will be greater clarity about the exact amount of fresh capital required by banks. The State Bank of India is already working out the scheme of a merger with its five associate banks subsequent to the cabinet approval in June 2016.

This brings us to the next logical question – where will this fresh capital come from? There are many options  – equity shareholders of the bank can invest further into the bank, the government can provide fresh capital, weak banks can be merged with strong ones, or in the worst case scenario, a bank can be declared insolvent (central government is empowered to declare state-owned or nationalised banks insolvent). However, it is not easy to find an investor for a failing bank. In case of liquidation, there are established principles regarding the priority in which losses are borne –secured creditors get the best deal, the unsecured creditor also bears the brunt of failure but the equity shareholders bear the maximum loss.

Perspective from international finance

In 2008, the global bank crises threatened the very existence of the financial system. Simultaneously, the outcry against ‘bail outs’ using public funds gained momentum. There could be no rational justification for the government to tide over irresponsible banks. Since then, there has been a sea change in the collective thinking of central bankers all over the world. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) was set up in 2009 to ensure that banks never fail.

It believes that a failure of banks destabilised the financial system and hence banks must never be allowed to fail. India, as a part of the G-20 group at the Brisbane summit in 2014, endorsed the FSB proposal ‘Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions’ that recommends ‘bail in’ to ensure the stability of the financial system. The first test run of the bail-in strategy for insolvent banks was launched in Cyprus in 2013.

India does not have the complete legal architecture necessary to implement this new international standard. However the committee set up by the finance ministry to draft the Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance Bill 2016 submitted its report on September 21, 2016.

The report acknowledges “the committee studied guidances issued by the financial stability board and to the extent suitable, drafted the Bill to be consistent with the key attributes given in those guidances.” It envisages the setting up of a Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance Corporation (FRDIC) that have the objectives of contributing to the stability and resilience of the financial system, protecting consumers up to a reasonable limit and protecting public funds, to the extent possible.

In case a bank “reaches the stage of imminent risk to viability” the FRDIC will have, amongst other things, the power “to exercise any of the tools to resolve the firm – sale to another financial firm, the incorporation of a bridge institution, or bail-in”.

‘Bail in’ and the unsecured depositor

On the face of it, setting up the FRDIC appears harmless enough – a mere streamlining and simplification of existing procedures. In reality, it aims to reorient the role of the RBI from supervision and regulation to financial stability. Since the primary concern will be financial stability, the fiduciary responsibility of the RBI, presently endowed under the RBI Act 1934 to protect the depositor, is automatically curtailed. The RBI would be taking the path trodden by other central banks in the world who have sacrificed the interests of the depositors in favour of fellow banks and corporates.

The mechanism of ‘bail in’ is recommended when a bank has failed, but it must be saved since its services are considered necessary. Under the FSB proposal, the resolution authority also has the power to impose a moratorium and suspend payments to unsecured creditors. In simple terms, this means that the money belonging to the unsecured and uninsured creditor can be used to save a bank from bankruptcy. The failing bank can be recapitalised with depositors money and without their consent as well. The new enactment grants sweeping powers to the resolution corporation.

When we deposit money in a bank – seldom do we think of ourselves as creditors. In fact, we are unsecured creditors of the bank. In case a bank fails, we would lose our deposit because the bank does not give us any tangible security against this deposit. However, in India, the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation insures our deposits to a maximum of Rs 100,000 per deposit account in a bank. So, if a customer has a deposit of Rs 150,000 in his bank account and the bank fails, then the excess of Rs 50,000 is uninsured and the customer has no legal remedy to recover this amount.”

Edmond De Rothschild: Modi Will Recapitalize Banks By March 2017

More proof that it was the Rothschild cabal, at the highest level of the globalist enterprise, that was behind Modi’s cash ban.

Not Modi, nor Obama, nor Delhi, nor the RBI, nor Washington, as the previous article I posted here suggested.

The cash ban came from the very pinnacle of the global financial markets.

The piece below is also proof that the ban had nothing to do with black money.

It was not even primarily about going to a cashless economy.

It is unlikely that even the Modi government is so out of touch with things as to believe that India is ready for such a transformation.

The ban was always an economic attack, intended to take money from the productive cash-based economy and give it to banks and big corporates (unproductive debtors).

It was intended to solve the problem of non-performing assets (i.e. bad debt).

The Rothschild memo adds to this. It explicitly urges the circumvention of the lengthy Indian legal process through bankruptcy courts, presumably after the model of the US.

Presumably, also, the new courts are to have much more leeway in deciding whose loans are to be written off and whose not, if the following is anything to go by:

Loans that were written off (Diageo-Mallya deal, February 2016, settlement funds going to Edmond de Rothschild account in Switzerland)   

Loans that will NOT be written off (SBI chief on farmers’ loans on Dec, 20, 2016)

Memo from the website of private banker and asset manager, Edmond De Rothschild Group (May 30, 2016):

The Indian economy has generated average real GDP growth of 6.5% in recent years. Yet the government is struggling to make significant headway in the area of structural reforms and this is preventing the country from realising its huge potential. Infrastructures by and large continue to creak, the labour market lacks flexibility and the financial markets need to be developed and opened further to international investors. When Narendra Modi became prime minister in mid-2014, it was hoped he would be able to make deep inroads with reforms, since he had gone on record as wanting to see India among the 50 business-friendliest countries in the world. Investors cheered this goal by bidding up the Bombay stockmarket, sending its valuation multiples soaring.

Subsequent events have reminded observers that Modi’s party does not wield a majority in the upper house of Parliament, where its bills often run into opposition. For example, the government’s flagship reform, a national goods and services tax that could boost GDP growth by 2%, has yet to be adopted.

However, the recently adopted Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code should breathe new life into India’s reform movement. It is meant to speed up the settlement of insolvency cases involving both companies and individuals. India has a sad history when it comes to settling and recovering on non-performing loans, an area where it still stands 130th in the country ranking compiled by the World Bank (see right-hand chart above). Insolvency proceedings drag on for an average of 4.3 years, with a recovery rate of just 25.7%. This is well shy of international standards. As a comparison, in China the process takes an average of 1.7 years, with a 36.2% recovery rate. The cumbersome nature and snail’s pace of debt collection in India has so far been due to archaic legislation, some provisions of which had not been revised since colonial times. This has actually encouraged debtors to drag their feet.

The new code, due to be signed into law in the coming weeks, will make it possible to settle insolvency cases in 180 days. During this period a committee of creditors will decide how to act on a payment default, i.e. by restructuring the debtor company’s liabilities or by winding it up. Creditors will moreover be classified, with senior debt taking precedence over subordinated claims. Moreover, insolvency cases will henceforth be overseen by bankruptcy courts, replacing the slower regular courts that have handled these matters up to now.

All this should have positive repercussions on India’s business climate by evening the balance of power between lenders and borrowers and by strengthening confidence on both sides. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code broadens the range of alternatives available to distressed companies, which will now be able to change their capital structure or reschedule their debt. This new-found flexibility should stimulate free enterprise at the local level.

From a more practical standpoint, dealing with bad loans quickly and effectively will not only reduce the portion of non-performing assets in banks’ balance sheets but also increase the supply of credit. At present nearly $150 billion of Indian banks’ assets are at risk (representing 10% of their combined loan books, including restructured assets). This weighs on their profitability and, worse, blocks resources that could be used to finance productive projects. The end result is a tepid investment cycle where money needed for infrastructure spending is in short supply.

The new code is also meant to help diversify the sources of credit available to borrowers, who are now 60% dependent on bank loans. The authorities’ objective is to encourage greater financing in the bond market and provide easier access to credit for smaller firms, which are often turned down by banks because of the higher credit risk involved.

Now the fanfare over the new legislation is fading, we should bear in mind that a whole ecosystem needs to be created. Setting up bankruptcy courts, training specialists and setting up databases to catalogue delinquent borrowers will all take time, meaning that the impact of the reform will only come in the medium/long term. Moreover, the recapitalisation of state-owned banks will be subject to the government’s budget restrictions.

Unlike China, however, India is developing a coherent process to address non-performing loans, a problem that is taxing its banking system. The Reserve Bank of India has set its sights high with the objective of weeding out and fully provisioning bad loans by March 2017. This clearly marks a major step towards expanding the country’s capital market, a vital effort in its economic development.

Washington Behind Indian Cash Ban?

An interesting piece that recycles all the themes on this blog into one long piece, but pins the donkey’s tail on “Washington” and “Obama”.

Furthermore, no hat-tip to yours truly, or GreatGameIndia, or WideAawkeGentile, or FirstPost, Indian Express,  or any of the dozens of Indian blogs and writers who unearthed this story accurately.

Most importantly, no mention of the global financial cabal that pulls the strings of the multinational institutions.

No, the cashless project did not begin with Obama, by any means. Nor can it be pinned on Obama….or Modi…or any other political opportunist or lackey of the globalist powers.

The Obama administration were behind the recent ban on cash in India, which saw millions of citizens take to the streets in protest. 

In early November, without any warning, the Indian government banned two of the largest denomination bills at Washington’s request.

Norberthaering.de reports:

US-President Barack Obama has declared the strategic partnership with India a priority of his foreign policy. China needs to be reined in. In the context of this partnership, the US government’s development agency USAID has negotiated cooperation agreements with the Indian ministry of finance. One of these has the declared goal to push back the use of cash in favor of digital payments in India and globally.

On November 8, Indian prime minster Narendra Modi announced that the two largest denominations of banknotes could not be used for payments any more with almost immediate effect. Owners could only recoup their value by putting them into a bank account before the short grace period expired. The amount of cash that banks were allowed to pay out to individual customers was severely restricted. Almost half of Indians have no bank account and many do not even have a bank nearby. The economy is largely cash based. Thus, a severe shortage of cash ensued. Those who suffered the most were the poorest and most vulnerable. They had additional difficulty earning their meager living in the informal sector or paying for essential goods and services like food, medicine or hospitals. Chaos and fraud reigned well into December.

Four weeks earlier

Not even four weeks before this assault on Indians, USAID had announced the establishment of „Catalyst: Inclusive Cashless Payment Partnership“, with the goal of effecting a quantum leap in cashless payment in India. The press statement of October 14 says that Catalyst “marks the next phase of partnership between USAID and Ministry of Finance to facilitate universal financial inclusion”. The statement does not show up in the list of press statements on the website of USAID (anymore?). Not even filtering statements with the word “India” would bring it up. To find it, you seem to have to know it exists, or stumble upon it in a web search. Indeed, this and other statements, which seemed rather boring before, have become a lot more interesting and revealing after November 8.

Reading the statements with hindsight it becomes obvious, that Catalyst and the partnership of USAID and the Indian Ministry of Finance, from which Catalyst originated, are little more than fronts which were used to be able to prepare the assault on all Indians using cash without arousing undue suspicion. Even the name Catalysts ounds a lot more ominous, once you know what happened on November 9.

Catalyst’s Director of Project Incubation is Alok Gupta, who used to be Chief Operating Officer of the World Resources Institute in Washington, which has USAID as one of its main sponsors. He was also an original member of the team that developed Aadhaar, the Big-Brother-like biometric identification system.

According to a report of the Indian Economic Times, USAID has committed to finance Catalyst for three years. Amounts are kept secret.

Badal Malick was Vice President of India’s most important online marketplace Snapdeal, before he was appointed as CEO of Catalyst. He commented:

“Catalyst’s mission is to solve multiple coordination problemsthat have blocked the penetration of digital payments among merchants and low-income consumers. We look forward to creating a sustainable and replicable model. (…) While there has been (…) a concerted push for digital payments by the government, there is still a last mile gap when it comes to merchant acceptance and coordination issues. We want to bring a holistic ecosystem approach to these problems.”

Ten months earlier

The multiple coordination problem and the cash-ecosystem-issue that Malick mentions had been analysed in a report that USAID commissioned in 2015 and presented in January 2016, in the context of the anti-cash partnership with the Indian Ministry of Finance. The press release on this presentation is also not in USAID’s list of press statements (anymore?). The title of the study was “Beyond Cash”.

“Merchants, like consumers, are trapped in cash ecosystems, which inhibits their interest” in digital payment it said in the report. Since few traders accept digital payments, few consumers have an interest in it, and since few consumers use digital payments, few traders have an interest in it. Given that banks and payment providers charge fees for equipment to use or even just try out digital payment, a strong external impulse is needed to achieve a level of card penetration that would create mutual interest of both sides in digital payment options.

It turned out in November that the declared “holistic ecosystem approach” to create this impulse consisted in destroying the cash-ecosystem for a limited time and to slowly dry it up later, by limiting the availability of cash from banks for individual customers. Since the assault had to be a surprise to achieve its full catalyst-results, the published Beyond-Cash-Study and the protagonists of Catalyst could not openly describe their plans. They used a clever trick to disguise them and still be able to openly do the necessary preparations, even including expert hearings. They consistently talked of a regional field experiment that they were ostensibly planning.

“The goal is to take one city and increase the digital payments 10x in six to 12 months,” said Malick less than four weeks before most cash was abolished in the whole of India. To not be limited in their preparation on one city alone, the Beyond-Cash-report and Catalyst kept talking about a range of regions they were examining, ostensibly in order to later decide which was the best city or region for the field experiment. Only in November did it became clear that the whole of India should be the guinea-pig-region for a global drive to end the reliance on cash. Reading a statement of Ambassador Jonathan Addleton, USAID Mission Director to India, with hindsight, it becomes clear that he stealthily announced that, when he said four weeks earlier:

“India is at the forefront of global efforts to digitize economies and create new economic opportunities that extend to hard-to-reach populations. Catalyst will support these efforts by focusing on the challenge of making everyday purchases cashless.”

Veterans of the war on cash in action

Who are the institutions behind this decisive attack on cash? Upon the presentation of the Beyond-Cash-report, USAID declared: “Over 35 key Indian, American and international organizations have partnered with the Ministry of Finance and USAID on this initiative.” On the website catalyst.org one can see that they are mostly IT- and payment service providers who want to make money from digital payments or from the associated data generation on users. Many are veterans of,what a high-ranking official of Deutsche Bundesbank called the “war of interested financial institutions on cash”. They include the Better Than Cash Alliance, the Gates Foundation (Microsoft), Omidyar Network (eBay), the Dell Foundation Mastercard, Visa, Metlife Foundation.

The Better Than Cash Alliance

The Better Than Cash Alliance, which includes USAID as a member, is mentioned first for a reason. It was founded in 2012 to push back cash on a global scale. The secretariat is housed at the United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDP) in New York, which might have its reason in the fact that this rather poor small UN-organization was glad to have the Gates-Foundation in one of the two preceding years and the Master-Card-Foundation in the other as its most generous donors.

The members of the Alliance are large US-Institutions which would benefit most from pushing back cash, i.e. credit card companies Mastercard and Visa, and also some US-institutions whose names come up a lot in books on the history of the United States intelligence services, namely Ford Foundation and USAID. A prominent member is also the Gates-Foundation. Omidyar Network of eBay-founder Pierre Omidyar and Citi are important contributors. Almost all of these are individually also partners in the current USAID-India-Initiative to end the reliance on cash in India and beyond. The initiative and the Catalyst-program seem little more than an extended Better Than Cash Alliance, augmented by Indian and Asian organizations with a strong business interest in a much decreased use of cash.

Reserve Bank of India’s IMF-Chicago Boy

The partnership to prepare the temporary banning of most cash in India coincides roughly with the tenure of Raghuram Rajan at the helm of Reserve Bank of India from September 2013 to September 2016. Rajan (53) had been, and is now again, economics professor at the University of Chicago. From 2003 to 2006 he had been Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington. (This is a cv-item he shares with another important warrior against cash, Ken Rogoff.) He is a member of the Group of Thirty, a rather shady organization, where high ranking representatives of the world major commercial financial institutions share their thoughts and plans with the presidents of the most important central banks, behind closed doors and with no minutes taken. It becomes increasingly clear that the Group of Thirty is one of the major coordination centers of the worldwide war on cash. Its membership includes other key warriers like Rogoff, Larry Summers and others.

Raghuram Rajan has ample reason to expect to climb further to the highest rungs in international finance and thus had good reason to play Washington’s game well. He already was a President of the American Finance Association and inaugural recipient of its Fisher-Black-Prize in financial research. He won the handsomely endowed prizes of Infosys for economic research and of Deutsche Bank for financial economics as well as the Financial Times/Goldman Sachs Prize for best economics book. He was declared Indian of the year by NASSCOM and Central Banker of the year by Euromoney and by The Banker. He is considered a possible successor of Christine Lagard at the helm of the IMF, but can certainly also expect to be considered for other top jobs in international finance.

As a Central Bank Governor, Rajan was liked and well respected by the financial sector, but very much disliked by company people from the real (producing) sector, despite his penchant for deregulation and economic reform. The main reason was the restrictive monetary policy he introduced and staunchly defended. After he was viciously criticized from the ranks of the governing party, he declared in June that he would not seek a second term in September. Later he told the New York Times that he had wanted to stay on, but not for a whole term, and that premier Modi would not have that. A former commerce and law Minister, Mr. Swamy, said on the occasion of Rajan’s  departure that it would make Indian industrialists happy:

“I certainly wanted him out, and I made it clear to the prime minister, as clear as possible. (…) His audience was essentially Western, and his audience in India was transplanted westernized society. People used to come in delegations to my house to urge me to do something about it.”

A disaster that had to happen

If Rajan was involved in the preparation of this assault to declare most of Indians’ banknotes illegal – and there should be little doubt about that, given his personal and institutional links and the importance of Reserve Bank of India in the provision of cash – he had ample reason to stay in the background. After all, it cannot have surprised anyone closely involved in the matter, that this would result in chaos and extreme hardship, especially for the majority of poor and rural Indians, who were flagged as the supposed beneficiaries of the badly misnamed “financial-inclusion”-drive. USAID and partners had analysed the situation extensively and found in the Beyond-Cash-report that 97% of transactions were done in cash and that only 55% of Indians had a bank account. They also found that even of these bank accounts, “only 29% have been used in the last three months“.

All this was well known and made it a certainty that suddenly abolishing most cash would cause severe and even existential problems to many small traders and producers and to many people in remote regions without banks. When it did, it became obvious, how false the promise of financial inclusion by digitalization of payments and pushing back cash has always been. There simply is no other means of payment that can compete with cash in allowing everybody with such low hurdles to participate in the market economy.

However, for Visa, Mastercard and the other payment service providers, who were not affected by these existential problems of the huddled masses, the assault on cash will most likely turn out a big success, “scaling up” digital payments in the “trial region”. After this chaos and with all the losses that they had to suffer, all business people who can afford it, are likely to make sure they can accept digital payments in the future. And consumers, who are restricted in the amount of cash they can get from banks now, will use opportunities to pay with cards, much to the benefit of Visa, Mastercard and the other members of the extended Better Than CashAlliance.

Why Washington is waging a global war on cash

The business interests of the US-companies that dominate the gobal IT business and payment systems are an important reason for the zeal of the US-government in its push to reduce cash use worldwide, but it is not the only one and might not be the most important one. Another motive is surveillance power that goes with increased use of digital payment. US-intelligence organizations and IT-companies together can survey all international payments done through banks and can monitor most of the general stream of digital data. Financial data tends to be the most important and valuable.

Even more importantly, the status of the dollar as the worlds currency of reference and the dominance of US companies in international finance provide the US government with tremendous power over all participants in the formal non-cash financial system. It can make everybody conform to American law rather than to their local or international rules. German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has recently run a chilling story describing how that works. Employees of a Geran factoring firm doing completely legal business with Iran were put on a US terror list, which meant that they were shut off most of the financial system and even some logistics companies would not transport their furniture any more. A major German bank was forced to fire several employees upon US request, who had not done anything improper or unlawful.

There are many more such examples. Every internationally active bank can be blackmailed by the US government into following their orders, since revoking their license to do business in the US or in dollar basically amounts to shutting them down. Just think about Deutsche Bank, which had to negotiate with the US treasury for months whether they would have to pay a fne of 14 billion dollars and most likely go broke, or get away with seven billion and survive. If you have the power to bankrupt the largest banks even of large countries, you have power over their governments, too. This power through dominance over the financial system and the associated data is already there. The less cash there is in use, the more extensive and secure it is, as the use of cash is a major avenue for evading this power.

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Modi’s New Year Speech: More Black Money Lies

There were some big whoppers in Modi’s propaganda blast on New Year’s Eve, which I sat through so that you, dear reader,  would not have to subject yourself to the tedium:

MODI-SPIN:

$500 and $1000 rupees notes (the old notes that were banned) were mainstays of the black economy.

FACT:

That would make the vegetable vendor, fish-monger, housewife, pensioner, and local shop-keeper all “black,” according to monetary moron Modi.

Of course, they are not. What with inflation, those notes are practically staples of normal day-to-day cash transactions: payment of daily wage workers, repairmen, and vendors.

The TV repairman takes Rs. 750 for an hour of repair on the antenna.  It would be normal to use a 500 and a couple of 100s for him. TV’s are not signs of great wealth, but widely owned by lower-middle-class  and even working-class people. A visit to the hospital, shopping at the vegetable or fish market, repairing a leaky ceiling – all of these would routinely be done with the banned notes.

MODI-MYTH

Demonetization has helped the Income Tax Department uncover more tax-evasion and money-laundering rings.

FACT

The Income Tax Department does not need demonetization to conduct raids on suspected tax-evaders. They do that in the course of their normal routine. In fact, demonetization has added NEW  rings of money-laundering and enabled corrupt bank officials to make a buck changing black to white. That explains the huge stashes (hundreds of thousands to millions)  of the new Rs. 2000 notes being busted all over the country.

MODI-MYTH:

The hard part is over. Corruption, drugs, trafficking, porn, and all other evils are based on black money held in cash and they have all suffered a permanent blow. Ramrajya is here.

FACT:

The largest part of black-money is digitally circulated in and out of India through market avenues such as round-tripping and participatory notes, neither of which was even mentioned in the Modi speech.  Black money is parked mostly in foreign bank accounts, in real estate, and in gold and diamonds. Far from helping eradicate corruption, cash bans and digitilization make it much easier for large players (like the government, large corporate entities and criminals) to manipulate and steal money from the ordinary man.

The aam admi’s troubles have only begun. He is being ruthlessly herded, through bribes and threats, into digital platforms for which he and the Indian infrastructure are ill-prepared.

MODI-MYTH:

More cash deposited at the banks will bring down inflation.

FACT:

One of the biggest problems with targeting black-money, is the inflationary consequences of sucking money out of hard assets and foreign accounts. Once in the country, they are bound to increase the supply of money in the country and pump up inflation.

Demonetization just changes the part of the economy where cash circulates.

It moves cash from the informal sector and small businesses to the formal economy and big businesses and government (banks lending to developers and companies).

It penalizes the winners in the free markets (the small businesses) and rewards the  losers (developers-government-banks-large corporations) .

It reverses the decision of the market and replaces it with a mandate from the center.

More deposits in banks means more money available against which banks can make loans.

Indeed, recapitalization of  banks with huge non-performing assets (bad loans to big industrialists and developers) is one of the real reasons for demonetization, not eradicating corruption – a story put out to hoodwink the public.

One example. Is Modi going after Vijay Mallya of Kingfisher for non-payment of loans? Why, on the other hand, is he unable to waive loans that hard-working farmers have been unable to repay for reasons they cannot control – like the failure of rains?

And why is only Vijay Mallya mentioned in Indian media reports? Mallya is only a front for Rothschild interests….

in the same way that Khodorkovsky was a front for Rothschild interests.

What about the vast public sector loans made to the scion of the Tata drug-running fortune, Ratan Tata, a Rothschild cohort, to purchase   over-priced Corus steel (at $12.1 billion) on the advice of N. M. Rothschild, the merchant banker?

The purchase was made at the height of the commodity boom, only 6 years after Corus was a penny-stock.

Tata is another friend of the Rothschilds, getting low-priced loans from Indian public sector banks to help out Corus, and selling his cars in India at twice the price they fetch in the international market.

Corus, originally British steel, foundered on the demands of highly paid unionized British workers, with their plush pensions.

MODI-MYTH:

The main problem in India is corruption and dishonesty, a problem of culture, to be addressed forcibly by the government.

FACT:

Corruption or graft in India, as elsewhere, is a symptom, not a cause of India’s woes.

Behind the symptom is the real cause, which is is not cultural, but political: the replacement of a healthily functioning economy by a system of political patronage run from the center.

In a patronage system, WHO  you are and WHOM you know are more important that WHAT you do.

Instead of competing honestly for money, through providing better services, businesses are forced to compete for favor from the political class.

This necessity has dribbled down into the lowest-class from the highest.

Call it trickle-down graft.

Why is the center so influential?

Ultimately, it’s because of the life-blood of the economy – money – is controlled from the bank at the center – the RBI.

Furthermore, behind the RBI is a more remote but far more powerful center – the BIS.

Behind the BIS stands the great central controller, the globalist Rothschild cabal.

The prevalence of corruption in a society thus has little to do with the innate honesty or lack of honesty among people.

In a famous 2013 survey of major cities all over the world, the Reader’s Digest ((not known to be unfriendly to the West) actually found that when money-laden wallets were dropped on the road, the two cities where they were most often returned with the money intact and the reward refused, were Helsinki and Mumbai.

Notably, Helsinki is in Finland, which is ranked at the top of corruption-indices. Mumbai is in India, which is ranked toward the lower end of most corruption indices.

That says a great deal about such indices. It says even more about the divergence between the POLITICAL category of “corruption” and the MORAL category of honesty.

By deliberately confusing the two, practiced RSS propagandist Modi has dressed up  a thoroughly political project, a black operation hatched by the Anglo-Zionists,  in the swadeshi  (home-made) and swachha (white) robes of national health and morality.