Doug Valentine On The Empire of The Lie

Douglas Valentine, author of several masterful books on national security and the CIA, talks to Susan Mazur about Tim Weiner´s new book on the CIA (“Legacy of Ashes”), the nexus of finance and espionage, and the propaganda campaign that lets Americans think the CIA is a force for good.

Here´s a snippet:

“Most of what Weiner writes about the CIA is already known. It’s a history book with a bias, not an expose, at least not for the Vietnam generation. He doesn’t even really get into the current Bush administration. He gives us a predictable treatment of William Casey and the Contras, when there was an incredible revival of the CIA under Casey.”

And that´s precisely what I´d say about exposes that appear in establishment outlets, even if they seem to be literary and anti-establishment (Vanity Fair, New York Times, even,  perhaps Rolling Stone, although much less so). They are less about exposing as about controlling the terms of the discourse, that is, the boundaries within which discussion can take place.

Another insight from Valentine:

“Angleton thought William Colby might be a mole. Angleton exposed the divisions within the CIA after 1966, the Colby vs. Helms factions. He also represented the literary sensibility the CIA once had, where finding secrets was like teasing the meaning out of a poem. Now we have sledgehammer spies.”

(Colby, by the way, died in a ‘boating accident’ in Maryland, on the day that a prosecutor got permission to set up a grand jury to probe the death of Frank Olson, who was involved in chemical warfare research and had been one of the subjects of the CIA´s mind control experiments. The CIA claimed Olson jumped to his death from a hotel window, although his injuries, according to the autopsy, could as well have been inflicted by a blunt instrument. I should note that at the time of his death in 1996 Colby´s name was being used on the letter head of Strategic Investments, a publication of Agora Inc. (co-owned by my co-author), according to several reports, although I can´t confirm to my satisfaction the exact status of that association. Several unconfirmed reports also link Colby to knowledge about the death (or killing, according to some) of White House deputy counsel, Vincent Foster, a preoccupation at the time, of Agora co-founder James Davidson)

More from Douglas Valentine:

“The CIA gets oodles of money from the arms business. Most of their income comes from criminal activity.

The Russian Mafia operates with a sort of impunity. And so does the Israeli Mafia. And one of the reasons they have this sort of impunity is that they’re sharing their profits with the CIA.

And I think a lot of CIA money is capital investments. They’re like movie producers. They want to overthrow the Iraqi government, they go to companies like Halliburton and others who are going to profit from the overthrow of Iraq. And like the executive producers of some movie, they get them to ante-up some cash. Telling them, don’t worry about it, the government contracts you get in return will cover your investment. Plus they have the old boy network – which now is so far flung.

Suzan Mazur: Plus some of the military contractors are organized crime and have had contracts since the 50s.

Doug Valentine: Exactly. Which bring us back to Barry Seal (Iran-Contra). Because in 1972, Barry Seal was to fly some arms and some explosives into Mexico. What the Brooklyn Drug Task Force found out is that this guy named Murray Kessler, who was involved with the Gambino family in Brooklyn, had an arms manufacturing company in New Jersey where the guns and the bombs came from.

Suzan Mazur: And some of these arms merchants also had security clearance during the McNamara and Clifford years of heading the Defense Department. They make weapons for the US government and some for whoever they feel like.

Doug Valentine: From my perspective, the spy industry and especially the arms industry, is the foundation on which the American empire is built. The United States has a military budget of I think $300 billion dollars and the CIA budget is like $50 billion – that’s a year. Together that’s bigger than the gross national product of any country in the world. And in the meantime we’re worried about 20 guys in Al-Qaeda.

[Lila: This statement is inaccurate, as both GDP and GNP in most developed countries were near or over a trillion in 2007. See current figures here. I think the author might have been misquoted on this and might have meant “many countries,”  for example, in the developing world. However, projections for 2010 place US military spending in excess of 1 trillion, if all military-related expenditures are included).

Continuing with the interview:

“Suzan Mazur: Which exploits of the agency do you consider the most diabolical – aside from the fact that one of its founding fathers molested two of his own children – and a reason why the CIA should have been dismantled years ago?

Doug Valentine: Your readers don’t want to know that answer. The most dastardly thing that the CIA has done is to wage this campaign of psychological warfare against the American people. Where the American people don’t see the CIA for a bunch of basically American KGB agents who are conducting criminal activities around the world. There’s a movie called The Usual Suspects with a much feared criminal named Keyser Soze. And Keyser is talking to a cop and he says the greatest trick that the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world that he doesn’t exist.

And this is what people like Weiner are doing with books about the CIA that don’t explain it for what it really is. They’re part of a propaganda machine that’s making the American people see the CIA in mythological terms as good guys, crusaders, as Lawrence of Arabia – when, in fact, they’re criminals. They’re part of THE GRAND LIE.”

My Comment

The piece is long and, for an intelligence aficionado, packed with illuminating detail. Among other things, Valentine touches on James Jesus Angleton, the most compelling of the spy masters (since he was chief of counter intelligence, I should call him chief spy hunter), the extensive role of private intelligence (which I touched on in my Abu Ghraib book), as well as the manipulation of Wikipedia, which Valentine regards as considerably influenced by the CIA.  This confirms my own long-standing observations about Wikipedia.  On crucial topics, it stays within the bounds of  debate allowed by  Western establishment interests and is very far from being an objective or quasi-scholarly affair. (I use the term Western because despite a substantial component of foreigners, the predominant interests served are the interests of the state and the military-industrial and financial industries), the most influential and powerful of which are Western. I do not use the terms capitalist, because I see the establishment as essentially a technocrat or money-managing class, working against capital formation in many respects.

And a final word, from the lips of Bill Colby himself:

“The CIA owns everyone of any significance in the major media.” [Researching the sources of this phrase, I find several sites like this claiming that it is “fake” and to be found unsourced only in a 2000 book by David McGowan, from whence it’s been repeated endlessly on the web. I’ll check up on this but for now am leaving the quote up.]

Was this tongue-in-cheek, or meant to be taken literally? You decide..

Lazard-Freres Insider Trading Bust

I missed these arrests from back in mid-December:

“U.S. prosecutors filed criminal charges against a former Lazard Freres banker on Wednesday for alleged insider trading that earned him and others $500,000 in illegal profits.

The trading involved some of the highest profile deals during the leveraged buyout boom of 2005 to 2007, including the buyout of TXU Corp, as it was formerly known, for $44 billion, including debt.

The charges were brought against Adnan Zaman, a former vice president at Lazard Freres, in federal court in San Francisco.

Financial regulators also filed civil charges against him and Vinayak Gowrish, a former associate at private equity firm TPG Capital, saying the one-time fraternity brothers stole confidential stock tips and then passed them on to friends. In return, the men received cash kickbacks.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission settled the civil case with Zaman, who agreed to return $78,456 in ill-gotten gains and to be permanently barred from associating with any financial broker or dealer.

The SEC said that Gowrish and Zaman, friends since high school, tipped two friends, Pascal Vaghar and Sameer Khoury. Vaghar and Khoury also settled with the SEC.”

More at Reuters.

My Comments

Is it just me, or does there seem to be an awfully high number of desis (Hindi for home-boy).

What´s with these guys?

As a fellow desi, I have to hang my head. World-class education, world-class jobs, better than world-class salaries…and a world-class racket.

War Without End, Amen..

Marjorie Cohn:

“Bush’s rationale for attacking Afghanistan was spurious. Iranians could have made the same argument to attack the United States after they overthrew the vicious Shah Reza Pahlavi in 1979 and the U.S. gave him safe haven. If the new Iranian government had demanded that the U.S. turn over the Shah and we refused, would it have been lawful for Iran to invade the United States? Of course not.

When he announced his troop “surge” in Afghanistan, Obama invoked the 9/11 attacks. By continuing and escalating Bush’s war in Afghanistan, Obama, too, is violating the UN Charter. In his speech accepting the Nobel Peace Prize, Obama declared that he has the “right” to wage wars “unilaterally.” The unilateral use of military force, however, is illegal unless undertaken in self-defense…….

…In his declaration that he would send 30,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan, Obama made scant reference to Pakistan. But his CIA has used more unmanned Predator drones against Pakistan than Bush. There are estimates that these robots have killed several hundred civilians. Most Pakistanis oppose them. A Gallup poll conducted in Pakistan last summer found 67% opposed and only 9% in favor. Notably, a majority of Pakistanis ranked the United States as a greater threat to Pakistan than the Taliban or Pakistan’s arch-rival India.

Many countries use drones for surveillance, but only the United States and Israel have used them for strikes. Scott Shane wrote in the New York Times, “For the first time in history, a civilian intelligence agency is using robots to carry out a military mission, selecting people for targeted killings in a country where the United States is not officially at war.

Delingpole On Wiki Manipulation

James Delingpole on Wiki manipulation

“If you want to know the truth about Climategate, definitely don’t use Wikipedia. “Climatic Research Unit e-mail controversy”, is its preferred, mealy-mouthed euphemism to describe the greatest scientific scandal of the modern age. Not that you’d ever guess it was a scandal from  the accompanying article. It reads more like a damage-limitation press release put out by concerned friends and sympathisers of the lying, cheating, data-rigging scientists

Which funnily enough, is pretty much what it is. Even Wikipedia’s own moderators acknowledge that the entry has been hijacked, as this commentary by an “uninvolved editor” makes clear.”

Which is just what we said a while back

here and here.

You get the scoop here…

Warren Buffett To Promote Paulson Book

Now, we don´t want to read too much into this announcement, but, really, promoting Paulson´s book? What´s Buffett going to say?

I really really like that chapter where Hank had to take over the US government.…you know, after he pushed Bear Stearns and Lehman over with the help of his  hedge-fund buddies…and all but nationalized housing.

Or

Gee, Hank´s into that cap-and-trade collectivist boondoggle that just got outed as a total rip-off  and a fraud made up by climate change fanatics but hey, give the guy a break, will ya? We´re all capitalists here…..you know, like, state capitalists..wazza big deal?

Or

Yeah, I know. Vanity Fair, that bastion of free markets and free minds, already did its bit for Hank´s place in history when it got down on its knees and..um.. blew…up.. the guy into some kind of I´m-taking-on-the-slings-and-arrows-for-the-greater-good-profile-in-courage long before me, and yeah, Bethany  did her bit for Hank too.. but every little effort counts…

I´ve had my doubts about Buffett´s involvement in the bail-out.

This doesn´t make them go away…

Secretive Steve Cohen On Talk Show Discussing Relationship With Ex—

I’d been avoiding mentioning the by-now famous clip of Steve Cohen on a talk show back in 1992, because it seems like a low blow. I mean, hit the guy over the head on insider trading, but don’t worm around in the trash can for dirt on him. Of course, he did put himself on the show…

But, either way, there’s one angle that is relevant.

If you’re billed as the most secretive guy in the hedge world, presumably because you’re a reclusive, crowd-shy financial genius, what does it say that you once got onto a TV show called Cristina of none-too-distinguished caliber to discuss intimate details of your personal life?

Hmm. That’d hardly what I call shrinking violet material.

Here, sans video (because we don’t drag people’s families in the mud on this blog) is the lowdown at New York Magazine:

“Shortly after they were married in 1992, Steve Cohen, the notoriously secretive hedge-fund manager at SAC Capital, and his second wife, Alex, went on the short-lived English-language version of the popular talk show Christina. The episode? “He Acts Like Her Husband!” The subject discussed? Steve’s too-close relationship with his ex-wife, Patricia Cohen, who recently filed a $300 million lawsuit against him.”

Think about that for a moment.

Psychologically, that doesn’t make any sense for a reclusive genius…

But, just suppose, what you have here is not a shy geeky genius (or maybe, I should qualify that – not solely a shy geeky genius) but a guy who was quite at home at a shady broker called Gruntal & Co. in the 1980s –  a broker that had ties to the Russian mob and to a whole set of players to whom ‘reclusive’ and ‘shy’ are the last words you’d apply. Just suppose what you have here is a guy who was a player in that crowd….making his way any way he could. And just suppose, that past is why he keeps a low profile…

Just suppose.

It’s at least a distinct possibility.

But what’s more like a high probability is that anyone who puts out an article on Steve Cohen like this one or this one by John Carney has lost quite a bit of his credibility on Steven Cohen and on a few things closely related like, say, insider trading…or naked shorting….

Carney’s explanation why Steven Cohen can have done no wrong? A SAC trader told him so. That’s why.

“The trader described the enormous, football field sized trading floor at SAC as “the cleanest in the biz.”

A SAC trader says SAC is 100 percent clean. Because?

Well, that part of it isn’t mentioned in the article, although a lot of other stuff which sure as heck sounds super close to insider trading is.

“When I was there, we put tons of pressure on our brokers to make sure they gave us any information they had fast and first,

And what was that John Carney was calling Matt Taibbi only a couple of months ago?

Naive?

Prem Watsa On The Uptick Rule

Prem Watsa of Fairfax Financial –  one of several targets of short-selling attacks – in an interview with financial editor Diane Francis in the National Post:

“Q What stock market rules contributed to the meltdown?

A Eliminating the uptick rule [can only short on upticks in stock prices] was a mistake and so is short selling without borrowing the stock first. The ban on shorting financial institutions is lifted again and the SEC is debating whether to bring back the uptick rule again. What we need more of is transparency in all markets, including with respect to shorting and derivatives.

Q What of the role of boards of directors?

A In a bubble it’s difficult for boards of directors. Compensation should be long term. It should be stock-based and not cash. Our company’s compensation system is focused on the bottom line, not top line, and is long term. The Romans built strong bridges because their engineers had to stand under them as the army crossed them for the first time. Responsibility brings better results and aligned interest with partners.”

My Comment:

Watsa is an interesting figure to listen to on the financial crisis. Born in Hyderabad and educated in Chemical Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology, he is the founder, CEO, and chairman of Toronto based Fairfax Financial, as well as a director and member of the risk committee at ICICI Bank in India. He’s been called India’s Warren Buffett and he did handsomely for Fairfax investors, turning shareholder equity from $2 billion in 2006 to $6.5 billion in 2009 by betting against credit default swaps.

Besides specific rules like the uptick rule, he cites the emphasis on ratings (versus due diligence or prudent risk management) and an increasingly short-term bias in the way companies, shareholders, and money managers act.

What does that amount to? A concern with the way things look, rather than the underlying reality.

It was the focus on labels and not reality that did the capital markets in.  At least, that’s my generalization

Zerohedge On Banning Credit Default Swaps

Zerohedge has a technical discussion of why hedge fund manager David Einhorn’s call to ban Credit Default Swaps is essentially a call to dismantle the entire fiat money system. Some of the details elude me, as they’re very technical, but the rest seems right to me. There’s no inherent difference between a credit default swap and, say, an interest rate swap, of which there are many more. So Einhorn’s demand is in effect a demand to ban all derivatives…

“Remember the liquidity pyramid?

As the graphic shows, derivatives account for 1,000% of world GDP, in essence allowing the world to believe fiat money is worth something only courtesy of financial sleight of hand which involved derivatives and securitizations. Yet all those calling for an end to CDS also have to realize that due to CDS intertwined nature, the world fiat system would need to do away with all derivatives (not just CDS), and when you do that you basically eliminate the other hybrid asset classes: securitizations being chief among them. What this would leave us with is a liquidity pyramid which ends with bank loans, which are much more manageable and whose risk can be controlled. It would also leave the world with a fiat currency system, which would lose about 10x of its value overnight, thereby leading to an instantaneous and global unwind of fiat money, and rolling waves of domestically denominated hyperinflation. A spectacular race to the bottom of the asset pyramid. And who will rather commit suicide than see that happen: why the Federal Reserve of course.

Which brings us full circle: an attack on CDS is an attack on excess liquidity, which is an attack on the global asset/liability imbalance (as world GDP and otherwise output has no chance of catching up with the liquidity that is currently available), which is an attack on fiat money, which is an attack on the perpetually low price of gold (because if and when derivatives and securitizations are done away with and tangible assets regain their true value, gold would go up by at least the same magnitude that fiat currencies are devalued), which is an attack on the heart of our broken financial system itself, and, an attack on the Federal Reserve, the Fractional and Central Banking System in principle. Well done David.

We hope Einhorn is successful in bringing more people to understand not just what the risk implications of CDS are (while also demonstrating the positive value that they do in fact provide in a rigged and broken capital market), but also what the underlying thematic subject of his attack really is: a busted fiat system. In essence, David believes in a fresh start. So do we, because on a long enough timeline…”

My Comment

Just to make it clear – I am myself not in favor of banning all derivatives. Why? Not because I think they´re profound innovations..or vitally necessary. But I think it´s the wrong way to go about tackling the problem. Banning one set of financial instruments will only prevent the smaller players from using them. The largest and best connected players will game the ban in some way, or make use of other sorts of compensating structures.  A better way would be to undo the fiat money system altogether…

So my agreementis with Zerohedge´s assessment of the situation and not necessarily with Einhorn´s recommendation on that point.

Besides, Einhorn, who made his money off of CDS´s, is an odd person to be pushing a ban.

Janet Tavakoli Faces Off With Goldman On AIG CDOs

Janet Tavakoli in Market Watch

“Earlier, Goldman denied it could have known this was a problem, yet acknowledged I had warned about the grave risks at the time. If Goldman wants to stick to its story that it didn’t know the gun was loaded, then it is not in the public interest to rely on Goldman’s opinion about the greater risk it now poses to the global markets.

Goldman excuses its participation by saying its counterparties were sophisticated and had the resources to do their own research. This is a fair point if Goldman were defending itself in a lawsuit with a sophisticated investor trying to recover damages. It is not a valid point when discussing public funds that were used to bail out AIG, Goldman, and Goldman’s “customers.”

Goldman claims the portfolios were fully disclosed to its customers. Yet at the time of the AIG bailout, Goldman did not disclose the nature of its trades with AIG, and Goldman did not disclose these portfolios to the U.S. public. If it had, the public might have balked at the bailout.

The public is an unwilling majority owner in AIG, and public money was funneled directly to Goldman Sachs as a result of suspect activity. The circumstances of AIG’s crisis were extraordinary and without precedent. I maintain that the public is owed reparations, and it would be fair to make all of AIG’s counterparties buy back the CDOs at full price, and they can keep the discounted value themselves.”

Shadow Stats’ Williams Says Hunker Down For Depression

John Williams of Shadow Stats says the gig is up:

Atlhough the hyperinflation is going to be limited largely to the U.S., the economic downturn will affect things globally. I can’t tell you how things will go with a hyperinflationary Great Depression, which is where I see things going.

It’s the type of thing that will tend to lead to significant political change. People tend to vote their pocketbooks. You could have the rise of a third party. You could even have rioting in the streets. I’m not formally predicting that — anyone can run these different scenarios. For the individual, what you need to do, from an investment standpoint, look to preserve your wealth and assets. Don’t worry about the day-to-day fluctuations in the markets. What I’m talking about here is over the long haul…

[Gold is] going to be highly volatile, as will the dollar, over the near term, but longer term, physical gold I would look at as a primary hedge for preserving the purchasing power of your wealth and assets. Maybe some physical silver. Get some assets outside the U.S. dollar. I might even look to move some assets physically outside the United States. The key here is to look at a longer range survival package, battening down the hatches, and preserving your wealth and assets during a very difficult time. Once you’re through that, you’ll have some extraordinary investment opportunities, and I can’t tell you what it’s going to be like on the other side of this crisis.”

My Comment

In response to a reader, I added my comment (Dec 28):

This is the way I see it.

1. There is asset price deflation going on (house prices falling), since the prices reflected unrealistic future projections of housing growth driven by derivatives built on the mortgages.
Now that those projections have been called into question, the derivatives have been repriced as junk, and the underlying securities, the homes, have to return to a more appropriate price leve.

2. This means that all artifical economic activity associated with the housing bubble also has to decline. So there´s economic contraction. That has taken down the commodity markets with it (except for gold, which is up as a hedge against the dollar and as a speculative play right now)

3. I don´t pay too much attention to individual figures coming out on the economy that seem to indicate an improvement in things, because

a. Many of the numbers are inaccurate or deliberately misleading.
b. Economics is not a mathematical science.  It´s an art. Static numbers cannot tell you about the social mood, political factors and gestalt that  drive the market.

Now, market prices are bit more reflective of those things because they´re dynamic, so the prices of commodities and stocks can be  good indicators. But there again, which prices -the price of gold, the price of money in the US, the price of commercial borrowing?

c. There´s also market manipulation..very severe manipulation. So again, the market indicators have relevance but its upto individual analysis how to tease out the relationships.

4. That said, and despite the fact that we have a credit contraction going on (a decline in the monetary base) that doesn´t mean that at some point the money pumped into the banks won´t find ways of entering the economy….if it hasn´t already, in some disguised fashion. (I realize the word ´money´ is being used in different ways here, as it is through out the debate, which is the reason for so much confusion..but that´s a long story..)

5. It´s highly probable that as the slowdown shows its true face, governments everywhere are going to be simultaneously devaluing..leading to local inflation.

6. Searching for hard assets, funds are again going to drive prices of certain essentials upward..leading eventually to commodity prices soaring even while there is a general economic contraction

Thus you could have simultaneously a high level of inflation – perhaps not hyperinflation, I would guess around 15%’20% – as well as a depression