Friedrich Hayek on the Pretence of Knowledge
Friedrich Hayek on “the pretence of knowledge:”
“Unlike the position that exists in the physical sciences, in economics and other disciplines that deal with essentially complex phenomena, the aspects of the events to be accounted for about which we can get quantitative data are necessarily limited and may not include the important ones. While in the physical sciences it is generally assumed, probably with good reason, that any important factor which determines the observed events will itself be directly observable and measurable, in the study of such complex phenomena as the market, which depend on the actions of many individuals, all the circumstances which will determine the outcome of a process… will hardly ever be fully known or measurable.”
Thanks to Kevin Duffy.
Florida Republicans Purge Libertarians from GOP
“On Friday — timed just right to minimize news coverage — Republican Party of Florida Chairman Jim Greer and the state party Grievance Committee notified a number of party members, many of them holding elective office, that they were effectively purged from the party and had been removed from their offices and would be ineligible to hold any other party positions for periods ranging from two to four years.
The targets of this purge are mostly members of the Florida chapter of the Republican Liberty Caucus, a group which seeks to return the party to its core beliefs of individual liberty, limited government, and free markets. These particular individuals were targeted because they had expressed opinions critical of party policy, candidates, and office holders, on the basis of which the grievance committee decided that they had “engaged in disruptive conduct likely to interfere with the activities of the Republican Party.”
More here at The Next Right. Thanks to reader, Zara.
The Ghost Ships of Singapore
“Some experts believe the ratio of container ships sitting idle could rise to 25 per cent within two years in an extraordinary downturn that shipping giant Maersk has called a ‘crisis of historic dimensions‘. Last month the company reported its first half-year loss in its 105-year history.
Martin Stopford, managing director of Clarksons, London’s biggest ship broker, says container shipping has been hit particularly hard: ‘In 2006 and 2007 trade was growing at 11 per cent. In 2008 it slowed down by 4.7 per cent. This year we think it might go down by as much as eight per cent. If it costs £7,000 a day to put the ship to sea and if you only get £6,000 a day, than you have got a decision to make.
‘Yet at the same time, the supply of container ships is growing. This year, supply could be up by around 12 per cent and demand is down by eight per cent. Twenty per cent spare is a lot of spare of anything – and it’s come out of nowhere.’
These empty ships should be carrying Christmas over to the West. All retailers will have already ordered their stock for the festive season long ago. With more than 92 per cent of all goods coming into the UK by sea, much of it should be on its way here if it is going to make it to the shelves before Christmas.
via Lew Rockwell.
Argentina and Uruguay Fight Over Polluted Water at the Hague
The Pentagon, among others, has made the point that riparian disputes are going to be at the top of the agenda in global politics in the coming years. Water is essential to survival and central to border disputes between China and India, Pakistan and India, and even in Latin America, where water is abundant.
In this case, Uruguay’s construction of two paper mills on the River Uruguay has set off a dispute with Argentina, which claims the construction is in violation of a long-standing treaty and is polluting the river as well as the Argentina tourist town on the other side of the border. The two countries have taken the dispute to the Hague, which is now hearing the case.
What’s my interest in this?
Uruguay remains comparatively unpolluted next to its neighbors, but the paper mills, which will boost Uruguay’s exports by 15% are symptomatic of increased development that could very well change that picture shortly. Uruguay’s attraction as a farming country is the relatively cheap cost of good quality soil, abundant water, and a history of organic use . But with multinationals and governments gobbling up land all over the world, you wonder how long that will continue.
The area around the middle of the border with Argentina, especially at the lower end, near Colonia (the Soriano area), has the highest quality soil and is intensively cultivated. Argentines often buy there because of the proximity to Buenos Aires, via the ferry at Colonia. The farming tends to horticulture, with potato farming and dairy well represented. I haven’t looked in that region because of the high prices – a hectare can run to over $8000, and I’ve seen prices as high as $20,000 and more, depending on the improvements and the location of the land.
In the middle of the border area, in the department of Paysandu, land usage runs to cattle farms and wheat.
Further north, in Salto, a pretty university town, citrus farming takes precedence, as the soil isn’t as high in fertility.
All these areas are well watered by rivers, like the Uruguay and the Rio Negro, which cut through the relatively flat, unspectacular land. But these are also the areas where land prices have shot up the most recently because of the influx of Argentines, looking for a safer place for their money and freedom from increasingly onerous agricultural laws….
Economic Freedom in US in Decline..
An interactive map of world economic freedom at the Cato Institute (2007)
Cato also has the 2009 Economic Freedom of the World Annual Report which shows the US number 6 in the world, much lower than the number 2 spot it held in 2000.
Mandukya Upanishad on the Ego and Dream States
The Upanishads are Sanskrit texts of commentary on the four primary Vedic religious classics of Hinduism (the Rig, Sama, Yajur, Atharva).
This passage is a commentary on dream analysis contained in one of them:
“Dreams, therefore, are due to repressed desires. This is one of the causes behind dreams. This is the only factor that the psychoanalysts of the West emphasise. But Indian psychologists and psychoanalysts, like the Raja Yogins and the philosophers of the Vedanta, have touched another aspect of dream. The dreams may be, to some extent, of course, the results of complexes created by frustrated desires. But, this is not wholly true. Dreams may be due to other reasons also; one such reason being the working of past Karma. The effects of past Karmas, meritorious or unmeritorious, may project themselves into dream when chances are not given to them for expression in waking life. Also, a thought of some other person may affect you. A friend of yours may be deeply thinking of you; and you may have a dream of him, or you may have a dream with experiences corresponding to his thoughts. Your mother may be far away, crying for you, and her thought can affect you; you may have a dream. All this is equal to saying that a telepathic effect can produce dreams. In the case of spiritual seekers, Guru’s grace can cause a dream; and catastrophic experiences that one may have to pass through in the waking world may pass lightly as a dream experience by his grace. Due to the power of the Guru, one may have a dream suffering, instead of a waking one…….. The reason is that you oppose their function in waking life, due to the assertions of the ego. You counteract Isvara’s working and Guru’s blessing by the action of your own egoism. But, in dreaming, the ego subsides, to some extent. You become more normal, one may say, and you approximate yourself more to reality, rather than to artificiality, in dream. Thus, it is easier for these powers to operate in dream than in waking. .”
— The Mandukya Upanishad on dreams, elucidated by Swami Krishnananda
Sarkozy Advocates “Bruni Index” to Measure Economic Progress
Well, he didn’t call it exactly that…but Sarko has joined former World Bank economist-turned-critic-of-globalization Joseph Stiglitz to co-author a report demanding that governments measure economic progress in broader terms than GDP, including such things as health care availability, leisure.
Developmental economist Amartya Sen has been at the forefront of that approach.
“French President Nicolas Sarkozy asked world leaders to join a “revolution” in the measurement of economic progress by dropping their obsession with gross domestic product to account for factors such as health-care availability and leisure time….”
My Comment:
While applauding the sentiment, this must win some kind of medal for fuzzy thinking. The point of a measure of economic productivity is that it measures, well, economic productivity.
Now, the productivity (or the production ) of morality, pleasure, good health or anything else, isn’t outside the realm of economic activity or of government statisticians, but if you think economic activity is hard to quantify, as we’re increasingly realizing, how much more difficult would it be to quantify such subjective factors?
The problem is only trained economists would ever have been silly enough to confuse the GDP of a country with its economic progress, or with its state of civilization, in the first place. No one else does. Then having made this elementary error, the experts now want to compound it by confusing production with consumption, economics with sociology and medicine, and work with leisure. It was the dismal science. Now it’s the dumbbell science. Or, as I suspect, this is the start of another propaganda effort of some kind..
China Files WTO Complaint Over US Tire Tariffs…
In the news:
“Beijing filed a World Trade Organization complaint Monday over new U.S. tariffs on Chinese tires, stepping up pressure on Washington in the latest in a series of trade disputes.
The conflict is a potential irritant as Washington and Beijing prepare for a summit of the Group of 20 leading economies in Pittsburgh on Sept. 24-25 to discuss efforts to end the worst global downturn since the 1930s.”
More here at AP.
My Comment:
Begin the trade wars..or rather, so continue the trade wars.
America dumps subsidized farm products in China, China levies penalties on exporters who don’t use 40% Chinese parts in their products….it’s all part of the effort to shore up exports to prevent the economy of either country from sliding further into depression…
Cops Allowed to Draw Drivers’ Blood Forcibly..
In the news:
“The nation’s highest court ruled in 1966 that police could have blood tests forcibly done on a drunk driving suspect without a warrant, as long as the draw was based on a reasonable suspicion that a suspect was intoxicated, that it was done after an arrest and carried out in a medically approved manner. The practice of cops drawing blood, implemented first in 1995 in Arizona, has also raised concerns about safety and the credibility of the evidence….”
More here at AP on another symptom of a system out of whack.