Vulture Funds Prey on Third World Debt..

Johann Hari has a critical piece on “vulture funds” at The Independent that is sure to be polarising:

“Would you ever march up to a destitute African who is shivering with Aids and demand he “pay back” tens of thousands of pounds he didn’t borrow – with interest? I only ask because this is in effect happening, here, in British and American courts, time after time. Some of the richest people in the world are making profit margins of 500 per cent by shaking money out of the poorest people in the world – for debt they did not incur.

Here’s how it works. In the mid-1990s, a Republican businessman called Paul Singer invented a new type of hedge fund, quickly dubbed a “vulture fund.” They buy debts racked up years ago by the poorest countries on earth, almost always when they were run by kleptocratic dictators, before most of the current population was born. They buy it for small sums – as little as 10 per cent of its paper value – from the original holder and then take the poor country to court in Britain or the US to demand 100 per cent of the debt is repaid immediately, plus interest built up over years, and court costs.”

My Comment

I’ve been interested in these lucrative public-private philanthropic ventures for some time. “Doing good” has become the avenue for “doing well.” This is touted by some people as the “markets working for people.” But the markets work for…and against..people all on their own. They don’t need the bells and whistles of public philanthropy added.

And when philanthropy been added, as my earlier post on Jeffrey Levitt indicates, it’s usually been added for an ulterior motive. Thus Hari’s activism against vulture funds.

Having made that point, I have a few problems of my own with Hari’s post that I’ll come back later.

First, here’s a response from the object of Hari’s criticism –  one Michael Sheehan, the founder of Debt Advisory International (DAI) (which manages several vulture funds) and a Republican donor to George Bush’s campaigns.  Sheehan’s letter is cited by Felix Salmon at his Reuter’s blog. The crux is at the end:

“At the end of the day, then, the anti-vulture legislation will accomplish exactly the opposite of what it set out to do. It will have increased the debt burden of all HIPC countries, increased the cost of credit for all HIPC countries, increased the barriers to foreign direct investment for all HIPC countries and increased the amount that will be demanded from the OECD countries in support of aid budgets for all HIPC countries. There won’t be any savings. The costs will be in the billions and will be annual costs you won’t get rid of.
You will, of course, in the process have increased the power and leverage of the development set, but then that was the intention all along, wasn’t it.”

There’s more on Sheehan and the creator of the concept – Paul Singer – in this piece, which also sheds some light on just how influential vulture funds are:

Debt Advisory International are very generous to their lobbyists in Washington. They have been paying $240,000 a year to the lobby firm Greenberg Traurig – although recently they jumped ship to another firm after Greenberg Traurig’s top lobbyist was put in jail.

Paul Singer has more direct political connections. He was the biggest donor to George Bush and the Republican cause in New York City – giving $1.7m since Bush started his first presidential campaign.”

Many of the debt purchases are also corrupt, as this BBC piece indicates:

“The Zambian deal with Donegal for instance involved an official in former President Frederick Chiluba’s administration who was later found – along with the president – to have stolen £23m from Zambia.”

From Third World Traveler come further details:

“The debt, originally owed to Romania for agricultural machinery and services, was accrued during the cold war. The amount claimed by Donegal was far more than Zambia is due to receive this year in debt relief – as agreed at the G8 meeting in Gleneagles in 2005. It is equivalent to more than six months of Zambia’s health budget.

Since qualifying for debt relief, Zambia has introduced free primary rural healthcare and announced plans to employ 4,500 teachers and hundreds of nurses. But one in three children in Zambia still does not go to primary school, nearly 80% do not receive secondary education and the average income is barely $1 a day. Donegal International’s claim threatens to undermine Zambia’s plans for poverty reduction.”

My Comment:

The vulture funds are, of course, behaving unconscionably. But moral outrage after the fact is less effective in stopping such things as not providing the incentives that entice unscrupulous people in the first place.

And these incentives are usually put in place by the state…in this case, by the global financial organizations, the IMF and World Bank, which were behind the economic policies that turned the once relatively prosperous country of Zambia into a basket-case, where half the population is malnourished.

So yes, the vulture funds are predators – but their predation is secondary and far smaller than the predation of the scavengers of the first order – the global managers whose “aid” has a strange way of devastating its recipients...

Sun-Life Financial Review of “Mobs”

Kevin Press has a short (but sweet) review of “Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets” at his Today’s Economy blog at Sun-Life Financial, where he gives the book a thumbs up for prescience, a slight tut-tut for being a wee bit too contrarian, and another thumbs up for a lot of sound advice on investment. You can see it here.


Mobs, Messiahs and Markets
September 21, 2009

Talk about timing the market. When William Bonner and Lila Rajiva decided to collaborate on a book about the behaviour of crowds in politics and economics, they did so with the understanding that Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point had generated a level of interest in the subject that they could capitalize on. What they didn’t know, even as the book went to press in 2007, was that the real estate bubble they were watching with such great interest was about to pop.

The best-selling result of their timely partnership, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, was released in paperback last month.

“We look at the biological evidence behind human behaviour,” Rajiva told me. “People are basically driven by fear and libido. We want to consume. Why do we want to consume? Because we want status. Why do we want status? Because we want to mate well, we want to propagate.”

Behaviour, of course, isn’t all just fun and games. “People do make sacrifices,” said Rajiva. “They’re generous and kind, and they want to help each other. There’s no one explanation for crowd behaviour, at the biological level at any rate.”

The book is far from a Gladwell knock-off. Rajiva is a well-regarded political journalist. Bonner is a successful publisher of financial newsletters and a website called The Daily Reckoning.

To say they are contrarian is to put it mildly. Despite its light-hearted style, there is a strong anti-establishment tenor to the book. Too much so in my judgment, but there is good advice here.

A couple of examples:

* “[T]he less you know for sure, the more important it is to have rules and principles you can follow. So, as we become more ignorant about what is actually going on, we become more stubborn in our opinions about what should be.”
* “A real investor buys a stock as though it were a can of tuna fish. He knows what it is worth to him and buys it when it is a bargain. But how do you know what a business is worth? How do you know when the perfect market has slipped up? Traditionally and sensibly, the investment value of a business is measured by how much money it will return to the investor. This seems only self-evident, but few investors actually figure it out and invest accordingly.”
* “The more someone wants to sell you an investment, the more you don’t want to buy it … The owner of an investment usually knows the asset better than the buyer does. If it were such a good business, why would the owner want to sell it to complete strangers? If it could earn a decent return on equity, why share it?”

Sandinista General: Kleptocrats ‘R Us – So What?

“Ortega defends the Sandinista Front’s rise to economic power, which started during the 1980s and has accelerated in recent years. Since President Daniel Ortega returned to power, opponents have criticized him and his party for essentially privatizing Venezuelan aid, which last year totaled $457 million, according to the Central Bank.

The Sandinista government has created a series of privately managed companies under the auspicious of the Venezuela-bankrolled Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA). Those companies, which represent more than $530 million in energy contracts, tourism holdings, and cattle farms, are linked to the presidential couple and managed by the family and Sandinista party treasurer, Francisco López…….

Ortega said one can be a self-identified leftist and still be rich….”

More here at The Nica Times.

In other words Nicaragua’s dear “leaders” are in bed with every rich speculator/developer from abroad. And aid to the country is being siphoned off by them. Great news for the foreign speculators/flippers in the country, making their capital gains and throwing chump change to the kiddies to feed their conscience.

Bad news for ordinary folks who make their living working and producing for the predator class.

Ah, but the new rich are kind too. A few bones are being tossed to the underclasses to buy respectability. The usual formula of crony capitalism – predation + charity.

I steal whatever I can get away with. Then I go to mass and toss your dying children some old toys. I get to be richer than everyone…and better too. I cheat, lie, defraud, and stomp on a thousand faceless individuals to get what I have. Then I toss some tiny part back to some one else and absolve myself.

It’s the Jeffrey Levitt model of absolution. More than twenty years ago, Tony Korneiser wrote a piece in The Washington Post on the man who “stole Baltimore.”

Back then, Kornheiser presciently put his finger on the moral and social attitudes that would metastasize in twenty years to give us the bank that “stole America.”

“Today’s businessmen seem to have hung a sign that says: We Will Lie, Cheat and Steal Unless You Stop Us. They renounce their responsibility to behave ethically, and dare the government regulators to seal off the border.

The sin isn’t cheating, but getting caught. If Jeffrey hadn’t been caught, he and Karol might still be the toasts of Baltimore. They wouldn’t be seen as gluttons, but as eccentrics and damned entitled to be so.

A few years ago Jeffrey hired a public relations firm to retool his image. The trick, and Jeffrey understood it, was philanthropy. Rockefeller, Ford, du Pont, Morgan — they all gave some away. That’s how they bought respectability. Now their great-grandsons are running for president. Instead of being known as a slumlord, which he was before he got into banking, Jeffrey would be known as a philanthropist. Through Jeffrey’s and Karol’s good charitable deeds, the Levitt name would stand for kindness and compassion. What Jeffrey neglected to tell the public relations firm was that it wasn’t his own money he was giving away. “

To “slum-lord,” add con man, gangster, penny-stock pumper, bid-rigger, racketeer, briber, stock fraudster, blackmailer, thief, extortionist, pimp, charlatan – which is what the word financier really stands for today.

Kind of takes away the glamor…

It’s Not the Borrowers, It’s the Lenders

Karl Denninger at Market Ticker is usually someone I agree with, but on this he strikes me as at least partially wrong:

“But just as occurred in the 1930s, Bernanke cannot change the dynamic because there are no willing and able borrowers left.

THAT is the dynamic that sets off deflation and makes it pervasive. This is the condition that Bernanke has ignored and claimed does not exist, but the fact remains that it does.”

No willing and able borrowers left? Even anecdotal evidence says that’s not true.

People with solid credit histories are being refused loans.. and  if you have some kind of credit glitch, forget it. And forget about getting NINJA loans and liar’s loans and all the rest of the credit that used to gush from the spigot.

The banks aren’t lending. But it’s not because there are no borrowers. Of course there are people who’d like to borrow and can. A

ll the people who weren’t flipping houses and maxing out plastic, for instance. Believe it or not, there are plenty of us.

Banks aren’t lending because they don’t want to. They have other reasons besides unqualified borrowers:

*They have to shore up their balance sheets and build reserves

* They’ve been burned before, and don’t know what kind of collateral is out there and what kind of assets.

*No one knows the correct price of anything, because values are deflating in all sectors or are badly manipulated by government subsidies and intervention; and also, because the mark-to-market model was suspended (correctly, in my opinion).

*Lenders are uncertain about the future and are waiting

*Banks can get a better return investing/speculating with their money – and there are plenty of borrowers for that.

Investors are just waiting on the side-lines for the commodities/currencies/metals/housing/you-name-it casino to reopen.

Government Debt: A Giant Step for Mankind

Portfolio.com has a neat interactive feature, “The Green Miles,” by Jocelyn Hanamirian,that shows you what the government’s debt would look like if it were stretched bill by bill across the solar system.

The Bear Stearns buy-out, at $29 billion, for example, takes us just past the moon.
The 2009 federal budget deficit, at $1.2 trillion, takes us past the sun.

UN Recommends New Global Currency

In the news, on September 7, Bloomberg reports that the UN wants a new global currency, ostensibly to protect emerging markets:

“UN countries should agree on the creation of a global reserve bank to issue the currency and to monitor the national exchange rates of its members, the Geneva-based UN Conference on Trade and Development said today in a report.

China, India, Brazil and Russia this year called for a replacement to the dollar as the main reserve currency after the financial crisis sparked by the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market led to the worst global recession since World War II. China, the world’s largest holder of dollar reserves, said a supranational currency such as the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights, or SDRs, may add stability.

My Comment
(coming up)

Gold Below $1000, While Dollar Slides

In the news, gold failed to find a foot-hold above $1000, despite a weakening dollar. A better-than-expected jobs report probably had something to do with that.

From Market Watch via Goldseek:

“Gold futures fell Thursday for a second session, continuing to pull back from the $1,000-an-ounce level as a slightly better than expected U.S. weekly jobless data reduced the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

The number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 550,000 last week. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected claims to stand at 558,000.”

China Quotes Ben Franklin, Criticizes Greenspan for Asset Inflation

“Mr Cheng [former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee and current head of the green energy drive] said China had learned from the West that it is a mistake for central banks to target retail price inflation and take their eye off assets. This is where Greenspan went wrong from 2000 to 2004,” he said. “He thought everything was alright because inflation was low, but assets absorbed the liquidity.”

Mr Cheng said China had lost 20m jobs as a result of the crisis and advised the West not to over-estimate the role that his country can play in global recovery. China’s task is to switch from export dependency to internal consumption, but that requires a “change in the ideology of the Chinese people” to discourage excess saving. “This is very difficult”. Mr Cheng said the root cause of global imbalances is spending patterns in US (and UK) and China.

“The US spends tomorrow’s money today,” he said. “We Chinese spend today’s money tomorrow. That’s why we have this financial crisis.” Yet the consequences are not symmetric. “He who goes borrowing, goes sorrowing,” said Mr Cheng.

It was a quote from US founding father Benjamin Franklin.”

More here at The Telegraph (UK).

My Comment:

Three things give this remark away, in my humble opinion as a long-time propaganda watcher.

1. The speaker is the head of China’s green energy drive. That means he is likely to be on good terms with the green energy people in the US government, the financial center of which is Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs has extensive ties with China’s state sector and is counterparty to huge derivative contracts with state banks and companies.

2. It is notable that Mr. Cheng’s language echoes the language of the left-liberal governing class in emphasizing the role of Greenspan at the expense of everything else. Greenspan, being a former Randian and an avowed libertarian, is expendable to this group. Cheng does not mention the role of cheap money, the creation and trading of mountains of derivative contracts, and debt-based policies  that go back to long before 2004, and indeed long before Greenspan. He does not mention the Federal Reserve itself.

3. It’s also notable that Mr. Cheng echoes the left-liberal line about over-saving being a problem in China. But the problem is not thrift and savings (i.e. capital formation), which by definition can never be excessive in a capitalist economy where investment is put to work by genuine market forces. The problem is malinvestment caused by manipulation of the interest rate. And that’s a problem in which the Federal Reserve’s role is critical.

Major Market Move in Offing

Looks like there’ll be a good deal of volatility ahead in the markets this coming week and through the fall:

*From Monday last week onward, New York has been riled up by the news out of China that Chinese SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) might walk away on derivative contracts that they think have been deeply manipulated. (They’re right on that). The SOEs involved are Air China, China Eastern, and Cosco.

*The derivatives are not mortgage-backed securities (the cause of the 2008 melt-down) but – likely- hedged oil futures in the OTC (over the counter) market, which is unregulated (that is, the SEOs hold synthetic longs).

*The threat – if it is that – has forced gold out of its summer trading range to within points of the $1000 mark, before falling back..and it pushed up the Chinese market by about 5%.(Sept 3)

*The counter-parties are 6 foreign banks, said to include Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JP Morgan. Goldman could take a hit on the contracts for around $15 billion, it’s rumored.

Note: The Chinese have been buying IMF bonds (50 billion) and watching the US meltdown and “stimulus” hocus-pocus with a good deal of warranted alarm, because all it means is their investments are being manipulated and driven down.

Obama’s reappointment of Bernanke was also taken as a bad sign by the Chinese. (correctly).

*Rumors have been swirling of further defaults of major US banks.

*The G20 has a preliminary meeting this weekend and the Chinese are said to have put the purchase of off-market gold on the table.

*The Chinese are pushing gold and silver on their populations, probably in anticipation of a currency meltdown.

*Meanwhile, Hong Kong has asked for all its gold to be returned from London.

*Last week, Germany asked for all its gold to be returned from London.

*Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and King County, Washington State have brought suit against Moody’s, S&P, and Morgan Stanley on fraud charges for the contracts they wrote, a case that would have massive implications for how other contracts are treated.

*[Oddly (?), Washington State is also where the earliest swine flu cases in the US were detected and where one of the largest outbreaks on campus just surfaced today – with some 2000 students at Washington State University coming down with the virus. Washington State had previously received large grants from Homeland Security for emergency preparations for pandemics, had TV Public Service Ads in place, had written up plans and practiced exercises].