Soros To Buy Stake In Bombay Stock Exchange, Goldman Seeks Commercial Banking License in India

Palak Shah at the Business Standard :

“US micro hedge fund legend George Soros and the world’s third biggest philanthropist George Kaiser are in the race to acquire close to 4 per cent in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Asia’s oldest stock exchange.

Soros has bid for the BSE stake, held by the embattled Dubai Financial Group LLC, through Soros Fund Management LLC, and Kaiser has done so through private equity fund, Argonaut.

Other investors who have bid for BSE stake include New York-based private equity majors J C Flowers and Caldwell Investment, promoted by Toronto investment broker Thomas Caldwell. Caldwell is a specialist investor in stock exchanges and bought 4.3 million shares of the New York Stock Exchange in 2006. Sources added that a private equity fund has bid Rs 370 for each share, valuing BSE at over Rs 3,800 crore. Avendus Capital is advisor to the deal.

Dubai Financial, part of sovereign fund Dubai Holding, holds 3.92 per cent stake in BSE, which it bought when the exchange was demutualised in 2007. BSE was then valued at Rs 3,780 crore. While BSE and Avendus could not be reached for comment, sources familiar with the developments said Dubai Financial felt the exchange deserved a higher valuation in the current situation.

In the recent past, the valuation of the exchange saw a sudden spurt after a new management team took over in 2009.

While some stock brokers sold BSE shares at around Rs 180 a piece some six months ago, a bank auctioned 0.27 million shares at Rs 320 a couple of months ago.

Under the new management, BSE changed its derivative trading cycle to compete with the National Stock Exchange, launched a mutual fund trading platform and is upgrading its technology platform. BSE currently has a near 28 per cent share of the equity spot market in the country and has been making efforts to develop its derivative trading segment, where National Stock Exchange is a monopoly player. BSE will launch currency derivatives in May and is also in the process of increasing its stake in Central Depository Services Ltd to 51 per cent.

Currently, six foreign investors hold 25.65 per cent of BSE and five Indian institutions hold 12 per cent.

A little under 62 per cent of BSE’s shares are widely held. Among the key Indian shareholders are firms such as Bajaj Holdings and Investment, which owns 2.94 per cent, Infosys Technologies CEO and MD S. Gopalakrishnan, who owns 1.04 per cent and media major Bennett, Coleman and Co, which owns 1.04 per cent.

BSE recently announced 12 bonus shares for every share held and the exchange currently has around Rs 2,000 crore of cash reserves, which translates into cash per share of at least Rs 190.

BSE posted a net profit of Rs 55.42 crore on revenue of Rs119.21 crore for the quarter ended December 2009.”

The launching of the mutual fund platform and the upgrading of the technology and expansion of derivative trading is exactly what Goldman Sachs introduced into the New York Stock Exchange in the 1990s. And we saw what happened in the 15 years following. And Goldman is in India, currently seeking a commercial banking license to operate there.

With the same players around (Soros, Goldman Sachs etc. ), there’s no reason to believe that what’s coming up for the Bombay Stock Exchange won’t take the same direction. Before the financial crisis, the Indians had little exposure to the highly levered derivatives and toxic debt that blew up the system elsewhere. Let’s see whether this upcoming round they’ll be as lucky. With economies stagnant elsewhere, Asia and some select African countries are the only places where there’s actual economic growth occurring.

I’m afraid the same handful of corrupt players will game the system there…

More here at The Economic Times:

“His hedge fund Quantum, which was reported to have posted earnings of over 30% last year, went on a buying- spree at a time, when most funds were dumping stocks in a sliding market. On July 4, Quantum Fund bought a 3.8% equity in Jain Irrigation Systems, and close to 1% of the holding of Jai Corp for a value consideration of Rs 167 crore. Since February, the fund has made investments valued at close to Rs 600 crore, or $ 140 million, in various companies, including Indiabulls Financial Services, Indiabulls Real Estate and Kalindee Rail Nirman. Quantum’s selective stock picking comes at a time, when institutional investors have been pulling out a large chunk of money amid concerns over a combination of factors such as weak global markets, soaring global oil prices and spiraling inflation in India. “Hedge funds normally are active, when there is some momentum in the market. Quantum may be trying to do some value-buying, but one has to see how long the fund stays invested, given the prevailing uncertain market conditions,” said a stock-broker..”

Remember Formula K (or, the First Law of Kleptocracy) :

s(B) + s(G) + s(S) v. EE where ‘s’ is always a positive integer

Some (s) of the big banks (B – eg. JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi etc.)

+

Some parts of government (G – eg. parts of the SEC/Treasury/Fed Reserve Chairman, IMF, World Bank etc.)

+

Some hedge-funds and speculators (S – eg. Soros, Paulson (?), Loeb, Cohen and others reportedly involved in manipulation and collusion with government)

Versus

Every one else (EE)

JP Morgan Gets $3.4 Billion For Buying Wa-Mu; Shareholders Get Zip

At Seeking Alpha, Troy Racki writes about the second rape of Washington Mutual stock-holders and US tax-payers by JP Morgan:

“In the settlement offer WaMu will relinquish all claims against JP Morgan and the FDIC. In return WaMu will be allowed to keep a $3.9 billion dollar deposit it held in its own bank. Most of the $3.9 billion deposit was generated from the sale of preferred securities in 2006 and 2007. Additionally WaMu will be allowed to keep $1.8 to $2.0 billion of its own tax return created from huge losses in 2008. The rest of the projected $5.6 billion return will be split between the FDIC and JP Morgan.

According to the settlement terms JP Morgan will receive $5 billion in HELOC backed securities valued on the open market at 60% of par, $193 million in Visa class B securities, $2.1 billion in cash, and a $20 million wind farm, all from WaMu. Given the initial purchase price of WaMu for $1.9 billion in 2008, these additional assets received means that JP Morgan will pay a negative $3.4 billion for their purchase of the bank.

The loss of these assets will heavily impact WaMu’s balance sheet which now stands to make only the bondholders whole, according to the settlement’s disclosure statement. Currently senior WaMu holding company debt trades at 106 cents on the dollar.

Under the terms of the settlement WaMu shareholders will receive nothing.

In the disclosure statement WaMu’s attorneys stated that the proposed settlement will net the most for all creditors and that further legal dispute would only financially harm the estate. This comes in stark contrast to prior statements by WaMu’s equity counsel that a protracted legal battle with JP Morgan and the FDIC may have returned up to $20 billion to the estate.

Currently the settlement is awaiting the approval of the FDIC, Washington Mutual bank bondholders, WaMu unsecured creditors, WaMu preferred shareholders, and the bankruptcy judge. An incomplete plan of reorganization was also filed on Friday along with the disclosure statement. The incomplete POR lacks a balance sheet meaning that WaMu’s unsecured creditors are left only to guess at what they may eventually recover, if anything.

Despite the negative purchase price, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan has indicated that the purchase of WaMu could have been closed for less, much less. In July 2009 he stated that JP Morgan “could have bought WaMu for a dollar” because of the projected losses that would have been taken on the deal.

The losses never materialized. In May 2009, JP Morgan wrote up its WaMu loan portfolio by $25 billion.

Had the $1 purchase price gone through JP Morgan would have eventually been paid $5.1 billion by WaMu and the FDIC to assume the bank.

While the deal may be good for JP Morgan, former WaMu customers are not so fortunate. Nationally many WaMu Providian credit card customers have since experienced dramatic rate increases. In Oregon, WaMu checking clients report that deposits are being held for fourteen days prior to being accredited to accounts. This abnormally long waiting period means that many checking customers are now being hit by multiple $35-a-peice overdraft charges for having insufficient funds. In northern California, out-the-door waiting lines for teller service at one branch sparked verbal outrage and multiple client threats to move deposits to a community bank branch. The branch responded after twenty minutes by temporarily adding a teller.

Meanwhile FDIC chairwoman Sheila Bair is continuing to push for additional powers that would allow the FDIC to not only shutter banks but their holding companies. This authority would allow for the FDIC to avoid future conflicts when it closes a bank but is unable to force a holding company to capitulate, as is in the case with WaMu. It has come under scrutiny after internal JP Morgan e-mails and PowerPoint presentations revealed that as early as March 2008 regulators were in negotiations with JP Morgan on the closure of Washington Mutual, termed “Project West”, six months prior to the bank’s seizure.”

More later…

Whistleblower Reports Precious Metals Manipulation By JP Morgan

Bill Murphy, chairman of The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) reports that on March 23,2010, GATA director, Adrian Douglas, was contacted by a London metals trader, Andrew Maguire, who had been told directly by JP Morgan traders how they manipulate the precious metals (PM) markets on non farm payroll data release, COMEX contracts rollover, and similar recurring occasions, to make money.

Maguire had previously contacted the enforcement division of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) to report this. On February 3, 2010, he gave a two-day advance warning of PM manipulation on the release of the non-farm payroll data on February 5 that took place as predicted.

Read more at GATA.

Bloomberg: Lehman Lawyers Claim Report Is Misleading

Bloomberg reports:

“Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. lawyers said the examiner who reviewed the firm’s collapse included misleading statements in his report about Barclays Plc’s purchase of the Lehman brokerage.

Examiner Anton Valukas’s March 11 report quoted a Lehman lawyer, Weil Gotshal & Manges LLP partner Thomas Roberts, as saying Barclays’s purchase of the brokerage unit was intended to be a “wash,” with neither gains nor losses for the buyer, according to letters filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York.

The law firm wrote that Valukas omitted statements that “the wash” was merely theoretical and there was no provision for a break-even deal in the sale agreement.

Lehman is seeking to recover $11 billion from Barclays, claiming the bank received a secret discount when it bought the brokerage. Barclays disputes that claim….”

I’ve thought for a while that the Valukas report was being hyped, and sure enough, Bloomberg, which has been a lot better than the other newspapers, has got some evidence to back that up now.

Here’s what I wrote in a comment at Deep Capture, just a few days ago, about the Valukas report and Bloomberg’s treatment of it (as compared to the uncritical praise at other news outlets):

Comment:
**************
The writer [the Bloomberg reporter] actually undermines [Michael] Lewis at every turn, calling his story loaded and one-sided and ending with this intriguing additional evidence that Lewis somehow doesn’t “get” it – a point I made in my post “Jim Rogers Tells Greeks To Go Bust” [http://mindbodypolitic.org/2010/03/09/rogers-tells-greeks-to-got-bust]

[Lila: Lewis, with Einhorn, has been using the Valukas report as an endorsement of his trader-activist-good-guy thesis]

Quote from end of the Bloomberg piece:

“What Lewis fails to note is that the day prior, Lewis himself had filed a column for Bloomberg News from Davos mocking Nouriel Roubini’s warning “that the risk of a crisis happening is rising.” Such forecasts of doom came from “people with no talent for risk-taking gather(ed) to imagine what actual risk takers might do,” Lewis wrote. The headline described them as “Wimps, Ninnies, Pointless Skeptics.”

Lila:

Like many people close up to the industry, Lewis gets all the details, but misses the overall narrative, maybe because he’s caught up in the activist mystique that traders like to project.

It’s a shame. Because “Liar’s Poker” is such a good book.

I’m afraid this new book and the movie by [Oliver] Stone, probably an upcoming book by [Bethany] McLean, will set the official narrative unless more people work on filling in the picture more accurately and less self-servingly.

Note also that Bloomberg’s heading on the Valukas report, unlike the rest of the MSM, emphasized Citi and JP Morgan’s help in pushing Lehman over.

*******************************

(End of comment)

Blair’s “Oily” Deals Greased His Iraq War-Mongering

Turns out Tony Blair had his hand in the oil jar, while he was talking up the Iraq war….and after. The Daily Mail (UK) reports:

Last night Tory MP Douglas Carswell said of Mr Blair’s links to UI Energy Corporation: ‘This doesn’t just look bad, it stinks.

‘It seems that the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom has been in the pay of a very big foreign oil corporation and we have been kept in the dark about it.

‘Even now we do not know what he was paid or what the company got out of it. We need that information now.

“This is revolving door politics at its worst. It’s not as if Mr Blair has even stepped back from politics, because he is still politically active in the Middle East.

‘I’m afraid I have no confidence at all in the committee that vets these appointments. It’s no good telling us these deals may be commercially sensitive – we are talking about the appointment of our former Prime Minister and the public interest, rather than any commercial interests, must come first.’

Liberal Democrat MP Norman Baker said: ‘These revelations show that our former Prime Minister is for sale – he is driven by making as much money as possible.

‘I think many people will find it deeply insensitive that he is apparently cashing in on his contacts from the Iraq war to make money for himself.’

“The committee said yesterday that Mr Blair had taken a paid job advising a consortium of investors led by UI Energy in August 2008. The exact nature of the deal is unknown, but UI Energy is one of the biggest investors in Iraq’s oil-rich Kurdistan region, which became semi-autonomous in the wake of the Iraq war.

“Mr Blair’s fee has not been disclosed but is likely to have run into hundreds of thousands of pounds.

“The secrecy is particularly odd because UI Energy is fond of boasting of its foreign political advisers, who include the former Australian prime minister Bob Hawke and several prominent American politicians.

“Mr Blair successfully persuaded the committee that the appointment was ‘market sensitive’ and could not be made public.”

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259030/Tony-Blairs-secret-dealings-South-Korean-oil-firm-UI-Energy-Corp.html#ixzz0iduagoIm

During Boom, Regulators Gave Themselves Bonuses For Superior Work

The Associated Press reports that the banks weren’t the only ones handing out bonuses:

“Banks weren’t the only ones giving big bonuses in the boom years before the worst financial crisis in generations. The government also was handing out millions of dollars to bank regulators, rewarding “superior” work even as an avalanche of risky mortgages helped create the meltdown.

The payments, detailed in payroll data released to The Associated Press under the Freedom of Information Act, are the latest evidence of the government’s false sense of security during the go-go days of the financial boom. Just as bank executives got bonuses despite taking on dangerous amounts of risk, regulators got taxpayer-funded bonuses despite missing or ignoring signs that the system was on the verge of a meltdown.

The bonuses were part of a reward program little known outside the government. Some government regulators got tens of thousands of dollars in perks, boosting their salaries by almost 25 percent. Often, though, rewards amounted to just a few hundred dollars for employees who came up with good ideas.

During the 2003-06 boom, the three agencies that supervise most U.S. banks — the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — gave out at least $19 million in bonuses, records show.

Nearly all that money was spent recognizing “superior” performance. The largest share, more than $8.4 million, went to financial examiners, those employees and managers who scrutinize internal bank documents and sound the first alarms. Analysts, auditors, economists and criminal investigators also got awards.

After the meltdown, the government’s internal investigators surveyed the wreckage of nearly 200 failed banks and repeatedly found that those regulators had not done enough…”

My Comment

How to react to this? Weep….tear your hair out?…..roll on the floor laughing….throw up?

A bit of all.

The salient points:

1. Giving bonuses/incentives for “superior performance” doesn’t work, either in the public or so-called private sector (pseudo-private). The next time anyone makes that argument, rub this article in their nose.

2. Sacking is the key. Every regulator who didn’t sound the alarm over the last decade needs to be demoted and/or sacked. At the very least, the department gets a 25% cut. Or better yet, throw out all the “financial examiners.” Obviously, the job means zip. Hire a team of snake-charmers, dancing bears, or g-stringed pole-dancers……you’d at least get a laugh for your money.

3. The only way to get any real information out of the government is through a Freedom of Information Act request.

4. “Regulatory capture” – the corruption of the government by the people it’s supposed to be regulating – is clearly only one part of the problem. The more intractable problem is bureaucratic empire-building. You don’t need other people to corrupt government officials. They carry the germ themselves, because they aren’t accountable to the market for excesses and mistakes.

5. The underlying problem is the artificial boom. It pushed prices of everything sky high and gave everyone a false sense of prosperity. Naturally, the idiots broke out the champagne and started pinning gold medals for genius on their chests.

6. The mob likes flattery. The boom flattered everyone…

Steve Forbes: Fannie & Freddie Must Go, DDT Must Return

Steve Forbes points out that government subsidies in the housing market weren’t needed for Canadians to become home owners:

“The Bush Administration botched an opportunity in 2008 to put these entities in receivership, with the idea of either liquidating or privatizing them. A winding down of Fannie and Freddie would have led to a birth of new players, well-capitalized and ready and willing to buy, package and sell home mortgages–and subject to failure.

The Obama Administration won’t formally nationalize the current Fannie and Freddie because that would swell the official budget deficit. And it certainly won’t countenance the idea of privatizing them. That will have to wait until we have a Republican President. Fortunately, this individual will have a Congress with enough new members who won’t have been corrupted by Fannie and Freddie the way previous occupants on Capitol Hill were. Certainly public opinion will back privatization. In fact, the two companies should be recapitalized, broken up into at least a half-dozen entities and sent out into the real world, with no ties to Washington.

Studies have conclusively shown that Fannie and Freddie did virtually nothing to boost home ownership. Canada, for instance, has almost none of the props for housing that the U.S. has had, yet the proportion of its population owning homes wasn’t much different from that of the U.S. before the bubble.”

The article then ranges widely, moving from Michael Crichton (best-known, outside his fiction, for his skepticism about anthropogenic global warming) to the ban on DDT, which Forbes blames for a resurgence in malaria world-wide:

“Not only is malaria on the rise because we won’t use DDT to kill mosquitoes but so are other insect-borne diseases, such as dengue fever. “

My Comment:

On the GSE’s I agree with Forbes. But not on DDT, where his argument is one that activists in the field hotly rebut. Water-borne diseases, especially, are largely a product of poor sanitation.  And filthy water, they say, is also to blame for the return of malaria.

Forbes then makes the argument that DDT, properly used, doesn’t have the  bad effects attributed to it by Rachel Carson, in her seminal book, “Silent Spring.”

The operative word here is “properly used.”

(You could, after all, say as much about Credit Default Swaps. Properly used, they aren’t harmful either).

Anything can be “improperly used.” So where do you draw the line? What’s the proper use of DDT?

Experts say it should be confined to dusting the insides of homes, instead of the large-scale crop-dusting that had a toxic effect on the environment earlier. That sounds fairly reasonable, if the DDT is used along with more sustainable, local practices – draining and cleaning stagnant water and sewers, and, most important of all, improving public hygiene. Without that, chemicals are pointless in the long term.

More than half of India (to take an example) lacks access to toilets and defecates in public. Surely that fact, as well as the problem of wet waste, takes precedence in any discussion of health. That means the root of most diseases in India, including malaria, is poverty and bad habits, the solution to which really isn’t DDT, but economic development and cultural reform.

I did a piece on this called, “Cleaning House” (Alternet, Feb 5, 2004), where I discussed the phenomenon of Not In My Back Yard that prevents community best practices from being implemented on a larger scale.

“When I walk over to my nephew’s house, only a mile and a half away in a rural campus, my journey has a Victorian arduousness to it. I have to pick my way gingerly through the dusty path cutting across the field, alert for dozing vipers, lantana thorns, cantankerous goats tethered to the bushes, and random puddings of animal and human excreta. At first, it is a mystery where these come from because the villages are a good bit away. But distance does not dim the force of the NIMBY (not in my backyard) sentiment, which until recent years has been the motto of Indian civic life.”

Beyond poverty and flawed culture (and often driving them), there’s also the government.

The filth in public spaces is one of the tragedies of the commons. When everyone owns something, no one cares for it. That’s the fate of public space in India, socialist since independence in 1947, with a bureaucracy fattened by years of being a poster-child for poverty on the international aid circuit.

At least in the cases of Africa and Asia, then, the social and political context is absolutely crucial in arguments about economic liberty and technology. And the perspective from the ground, in the case of malaria and other tropical diseases, suggests a different kind of technology from bio-tech, one in which regulation isn’t much of an issue at all.

Jason Gale, Bloomberg, May 2007:

“Nair says modern sewers aren’t the answer for India. The country can’t afford to waste water by flushing it down a latrine. Instead, she’s encouraging airplane-style commodes that are vacuum cleared or toilets that are attached to contained pits rather than systems that pipe the effluent miles away for treatment. In Nair’s world, recycling human excrement for use as fertilizer is preferable.

“We need to invent our own devices which are cost- effective, environmentally sustainable and go with our people,” she says. “We cannot afford the things which are simply things that some civil engineer learned somewhere.”

Converting excreta that have been properly dried for 6-24 months into plant food uses less water than traditional sewage systems and is less likely to pollute waterways, Payden says.

Bartram says composted sewage that’s been handled correctly can be used in agriculture and for other beneficial purposes with negligible risk to human health. The challenge is to sanitize it so that disease-carrying organisms are eliminated.”

If cleaning the streets is more important than spraying DDT, in long-term control of malaria in India, then we’ve by-passed the regulatory problems associated with the chemical altogether.

In this case, as in others, activities that have a direct effect on the eco-system or the human organism (DDT) and activities that don’t (housing subsidies) can’t really be yoked together in analysis without problems. I tend to think that using the same model of reasoning for both, then, doesn’t yield correct answers, because it’s a function of a certain degree of ideological fundamentalism or literalism.

Everything is always a matter of interpretation.

Update:

In much the same way, I’d argue that the corrupt culture in Wall Street has to change before bans on this or that financial instrument are considered (that is, if one were to even concede that bans were necessary). Which is why the market-reform movement and the prosecution of crime come first, before changes in regulation.

Update:

The government of India’s rather optimistic schedule is to achieve its sanitation goals by 2010 and it’s using economic incentives to get there. ($48 for each installed toilet in Haryana).* It isn’t likely to get there that fast, but the program does suggest one area in which you can invest confidently – sanitation technology.

*I’m not endorsing this or any other government program, I’m merely noting it.

Celente: Report Shows JPMorgan, Citi Helped Push Lehman Under

Gerald Celente: JP Morgan and Citi acted like mobs bosses in torpedoing Lehman.

Note: the bankruptcy examiner’s report shows Lehman cooking its books to look less levered than it was, but the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) (Mr. Geithner, that would be you) abetted it. So did the SEC, and JP Morgan and Citi acted like cannibals (or street gangs…or mob bosses), as they tried to wipe out their rival.

Well, we said so at the time, in a post called“Statistics Don’t Back Panic Mongers” (October 2008).

And even before that.

Except for the fact that the Wall Street gang uses money, ratings, and other “adult” world paraphernalia, they’re not much more than hooligans who didn’t get toilet-trained right.

Let’s see:

Finger-pointing: He did, teacher, I didn’t (Politicians to voters, voters to politicians)

Avoiding responsibility: But you told us we could (Wall Street to Main Street, home-owners to lenders, managers to accountants, lawyers)

Succumbing to peer pressure: Everyone does it ( Book-cooking managers, lazy reporters, colluding speculators)

Blaming the victim: He deserved it (Corporate raiders, naked short-sellers, media shills)

Europe Thumbs Its Nose At G-Sax, Banksters

The Guardian:

“For the first time in five years, no big US investment bank appears among the top nine sovereign bond bookrunners in Europe, according to Dealogic data compiled for the Guardian. Only Morgan Stanley ranks at number 10.

Goldman Sachs doesn’t make the table. Goldman made it to number five last year and in 2006, and number eight in 2007, the data shows. JP Morgan was in the top ten last year and in 2007 and 2006 but doesn’t appear this year.

“Governments do not have the confidence that the excessive risk-taking culture of the big Wall Street banks has changed and they still cannot be trusted to put the stability of the financial system before profit,” said Arlene McCarthy, vice chair of the European parliament’s economic and monetary affairs committee. “It is no surprise therefore that governments are reluctant to do business with banks that have failed to learn the lesson of the crisis. The banks need to acknowledge the mistakes that were made and behave in an ethical way to regain the trust and confidence of governments.”

Soros, Paulson etc. Under DOJ Probe For Destabilizing Euro

Yes, indeed. One for the good guys!

“The U.S. Justice Department has launched an investigation into whether heavyweight hedge funds including Soros Fund Management, SAC, Greenlight Capital and Paulson & Co.  aggressively shorted the euro in recent weeks to destabilise it, the WSJ reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

According to the paper,  the department has asked hedge funds to retain trading records and electronic communications relating to the EU currency which needless to say has come under strong selling pressure as a result of the Greek debt crisis. The euro has lost more than 10% since November. It currently trades at $1.3609….”

More at the Wall Street Journal.

I blogged a few days ago about David Einhorn’s holdings, noting his anti-Euro trade; I also noted that without the raids against Allied and Lehman and without his late-in-the day piling onto gold, Einhorn’s record really isn’t as impressive as all the hype about his abilities would lead you to believe.