“The exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, that holds gold bullion was down 5% Friday afternoon on record trading volume as the gold price fell. More than 70 million shares have traded hands with an hour of trading to go. It’s the highest volume in its history. The gold ETF was launched in late 2004 and has assets of more than $40 billion”
Tag Archives: Finance
China Warns of Gold Bubble
The Telegraph reports that China warns of a gold bubble:
“Experts say that China is putting a floor under the gold price but does not chase rallies once they are under way.
There is also a double-edged twist to news that Barrick Gold, the world’s biggest gold mining company, has closed the final 3m ounces of its notorious hedge book ahead of schedule. While the move is a bet that prices will continue to rise, it also means that Barrick has been a big buyer of gold lately. These purchases have now stopped. One of the key drivers behind the spike this autumn has been removed.”
This article is one of the few out there that takes into account the time lag between an announcement and an action. Many of the events that reporters tout as proof that the gold price will spike much higher right way are actually events that have taken place in the past – for eg., purchases at lower prices – or are hedges that have a more complex function than the usual retail investor has in mind, with the siren call of “gold´s going to the moon, jump in now or you´ve lost it forever” sounding in his ears.
Take trader John Paulson´gold purchase. It took place in January, apparently. And remember that it was a position taken by his hedge-fund, with his clients money. Paulson gets his fee no matter how that trade turns out long term, and if his fee is a percentage of the assets under management, a purchase when the price is high is better than one at rock bottom, even if his clients´profits are not maximized that way. (sorry: thoughtless blunder there)
Notice finally that Paulson´s own fortune is in gold to a much lesser extent – only about $250 million of his reported $6 billion net worth. That comes to about 4% of his assets….(Correction: that´s 6.8 billion and less than 4%)
Not an earth shaking proportion by any means.
So, what gives?
Paulson Has More Gold Than Australia…
Or Argentina, or Brazil, or Thailand, or Ireland…or..
Check out EconomPic for a nice chart.
Mark to “Markit” Manipulation
From Deep Capture:
“Another line of inquiry has not been pursued, however, though it is of equal, and perhaps greater, significance. That line of inquiry concerns the way in which the prices of credit default swaps effect [sic] the perceived value of all forms of debt — corporate bonds, commercial mortgages, home mortgages, and collateralized debt obligations — and as a result, the ability of hedge funds manipulators to use credit default swaps to enhance their bear raids on public companies.
If short sellers can manipulate the price of credit default swaps, they can disrupt those companies whose debt is insured by the credit default swaps whose prices are manipulated. The game plan runs as follows: find a company that relies on a layer of debt that is both permanent, and which rolls over frequently (most financial firms fit this description). Short sell that company’s stock. Then manipulate the price of the CDS upwards, preferably into a spike, as you spread the news of the skyrocketing CDS price (perhaps with the cooperation of compliant journalists at, say, CNBC).
Because the CDS is, in essence, an insurance policy on the debt of the company, the spiking CDS pricing will cause the company’s lenders to panic and cut off access to credit. As this happens, the company’s stock will nosedive, thereby cutting off access to equity capital. Thus suddenly deprived of credit and equity, the firm collapses, and the hedge fund collects on its short bets.
Moreover, credit default swap prices are the primary inputs for important indices (such as the CMBX and the ABX) measuring the movement of the overall market for commercial and home mortgages. In the months leading up to the financial crisis of 2008, short sellers pointed to these indices in order to argue that investment banks – most notably Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers – had overvalued the mortgage debt and property on their books. Meanwhile, several hedge funds made billions in profits betting that those indexes would drop.
It should therefore be a matter of some concern that credit default swap “prices” and the indexes derived from them are determined almost entirely by a little company with zero transparency and, it appears probable, a high exposure to influence from market manipulators. The company is called Markit Group, and there is every reason to believe that its CDS-driven indices (the CMBX, the ABX, and several others) are inaccurate, while the credit default swap “prices” that they publish and which rock the market are in fact nowhere close to the prices at which credit default swaps actually trade.
Last year, the media reported that New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo had sent subpoenas to Markit Group as part of an investigation into possible manipulation of credit default swap prices by short sellers. This investigation, like Mr. Cuomo’s other investigations into market manipulation, have yielded no prosecutions.
The Department of Justice is reportedly investigating Markit Group for anti-trust violations. This investigation (which is reportedly focused on how Markit Group packages and sells its information) seems to acknowledge that Market Group has near-monopolistic control of information about credit default swap prices. However, if the press reports are correct, the DOJ has not considered the possible appeal of this monopolistic control to market manipulation.
“
My Comment
This isn’t the first time that Markit has been fingered. Pam Martens wrote a detailed piece last year at Counterpunch called “How Wall Street Blew Itself Up” that blew Markit´s cover.
Now I´ve always suspected the indices (including Libor) are manipulated. The fundamental problem in our markets is corruption..and that´s directly related to size and monopoly. That´s why you do need certain kinds of “level playing field” or procedural types of regulation (not substantive regulation) to take care of the problem. I think this should also take care of Olagues’ caveat. The Deep Capture team isn’t confining its investigation to simply naked shortselling in the technical sense, but is expanding its work to the entire range of strategies involved in rigging the markets – insider trading, short-selling of all kinds, and the manipulation of indices. (Correction: I am referring to uncovered short sales, where there is no intent to deliver)
John Olagues on Naked Short Selling
John Olagues, the options market-maker who first analyzed the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman as the result of a concerted attack, has a new piece at Investopedia criticizing the ¨naked short selling¨critics:
Naked short selling is often in the news today, and is criticized by journalists and other pundits who claim that naked short sellers allied with “rumor mongers” caused the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. They cite the large “failure to deliver” for a stock as evidence of naked short sales days after the stock had dropped. Although the naked short sales happened after the collapse event, they still hold onto the idea that those after-the-event naked short sales caused the collapses. (To learn more, see Case Study: The Collapse Of Lehman Brothers.)
In my opinion, those who believe that naked short sales caused the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers are misdirecting the attention from the illegal inside traders and their allied manipulators.
The large volumes of “fail to deliver” stock and the naked short sales after the collapses of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers leads me to believe there is an explanation for those large volumes. However, that strategy did not cause the collapse of those companies. (For more, check out our Short Selling Tutorial.)
The Bottom Line
Selling short can be done in a myriad of ways. And, although naked short selling is often given a bad reputation in the media because it is frequently abused, it is not as nefarious as its critics suggest.
My Comment:
I´ve gone back and forth about this with Olagues, as well as with the most prominent figure in the naked short-selling campaign, Patrick Byrne…and it occurs to me that a lot of the problem lies in language – as is the case in other areas of political debate too.
Distinguishing between naked shortselling and other forms of shortselling where the shares fail to deliver seems to the source of the problem. NSS should include within it all forms of shortselling that do not cost the seller.
When the seller does not pay the actual price for his transaction, his activity is no longer adding information to the market. There is no price discovery, because the cost of the shortselling has been arbitrarily shifted elsewhere and in fact miscues the market. So what market-makers do in the course of their legitimate activities and also when they´re trying to exploit their position for their own benefit would come under the NSS rubric..
Aside:
I would go on..but I have had computer problems for the past two weeks…the keys type whatever they want to …I cant use the apostrophe, the parentheses have vanished, and when I type a dash, out comes an equals sign….which is why I keep using dots..and there are no contractions.
Fall-Out from Dubai World (Update)
I´ll try rounding up the reaction in the market and the punditry to Dubai World´s threat of default.
Two clarifications.
First: Dubai World´s problem is being referred to as a sovereign debt problem, but as far as I can understand, it´s not. The Dubai government is the 100% owner of Dubai World, which is itself a holding company. But, as William Buiter points out in the Financial Times, the Dubai government has only limited liability, just like any other limited liability company.
It wouldn´t have to reach into its pockets to make good any obligation unmet by Dubai World or its subsidiary Nakheel.
Second. The debt crisis is being referred to as a Black Swan. Again, this is inaccurate. A black swan is an unexpected event that doesn´t fit (and in fact upends) the prevailing paradigm. This debt crisis has been on the horizon for a while. And the announcement of the standstill in payment was obviously calculated to roil the markets as little as possible – being made during the Thanksgiving holidays, when the market is partially shut, and also at the start of Eid which lasts until December 6.
Update: With those caveats, I was going to try and list the banks and sectors that might be affected…but I found that Bob Wenzel´s site had already got a chart of Dubai World´s obligations to Nakheel Holdings from Izabella Kaminska at the Financial Times. You definitely need your coffee before you read this one.
However, the text below the chart, although just as abstruse, does make it clear that investors are not going to be able to get any blood out of the Dubai government.
“Investors should note, however, that the Government of Dubai does not guarantee any indebtedness or any other liability of Dubai World.”
Update: I should add here that while technically the government of Dubai is not responsible for the debt, it is implied everywhere that the safety of the debt derives from its backstopping by the government. The reaction of furious investors that Dubai would never be able to raise a penny again implies that default would taint the government and not simply the company.
Speculation Drives Metal Prices
Geologist Brent Cook at Mineweb explores the speculative frenzy behind metal prices:
“Now I do not know if Paul’s [Van Eeden] thesis on gold is accurate or not: if it is it could still take many years to play out. Likewise, I do not know how or when the base metal prices will re-equilibrate to the reality of end demand-whatever that is. What is obvious is that gold and now base metals have become speculative investments that in addition to being bought as hedges against inflation and a falling US dollar are the latest get rich quick scheme. The end result is that absent the faith that metals and markets are all headed higher, we here at Exploration Insights are finding it difficult, although not impossible, to find value in junior mining and exploration companies.
Hot money on the other hand is not.
Over the past few months we have witnessed bought-deal equity financings for individual mid- to junior tier gold companies in the 10’s to 100’s of million dollars. These are being bought at nearly the absolute 52-week highs by funds that I know have not looked into the mining, metallurgical, social or political intricacies that make or break a mine. This fearless hot money jumping into the sector worries me. It always precedes a market bubble and correction: sometimes serious, sometimes temporary- sometimes by weeks, sometimes by years.
Adding to the absence of fear and proper due diligence in the market, my recent discussions with corporate financiers confirm that both large and mid-sized gold companies are being offered substantial unsolicited bought-deal financings-no questions asked. At the same time, some of the very same companies being offered the quick money are being hit with heavy selling when a fund manager becomes “concerned” because there has been no news for a couple of weeks or gold backed off $15.
Hand in hand with heavy fund demand for new metals investment ideas most of the major research firms have increased their commodity price assumptions to reflect the “new reality”. The primary advantage afforded by the commodity price revisions is that previously overvalued mining companies can instantly become “Buys”. Recall that the last major upward revisions from many of these same research firms came as the new reality of higher prices set in 2008.
The problem is that greed is driving the market and so any small hiccup or change in sentiment and the hot money tends to bolt. As last year taught us (remember last year?) when the fast money going in is the liquidity, there ain’t no liquidity getting out.
I remain cautious and somewhat concerned by what appears to be hot and fickle money jumping into a sector that is apparently taking its cue from pig farmers”.
Insights From the Bears
I had a conversation recently with some insiders in the financial industry, of a rather bearish persuasion. So bearish that they’re interested in leaving the United States.
Which is how I’ve felt for about five-six years.
The conversation yielded interesting tidbits. Some of them confirm my own thinking; others contradict it. The contradictory parts interested me the most, of course. I tend to pay more attention to people who think differently from me than to people who agree, perhaps because of some diffidence about my own judgment….Unfortunately, my own instincts have turned out to be more accurate than I’ve been able to believe.
Anyway, here’s what I came away with from what I consider honest and reliable professional money managers:
1. China is overvalued greatly. By around 50%-60% or more (not the first time I’ve heard this, of course).
2. Jim Rogers knows commodities, but doesn’t know gold as well (this was new to me).
3. Marc Faber has one of the best reputations as an investor among insiders (well-known to me). His newsletter is worth the money.
(Full disclosure: I don’t subscribe to Mr. Faber’s newsletter, work for him or receive any kind of compensation for this statement. I’m passing it along as well-founded opinion that might help readers struggling to find reliable guidance in the welter of news….)
4. Gold bars sold by some firms have tungsten underneath, so be careful from whom you buy. James Turk is a reliable person to buy gold from. (Full disclosure: I don’t use Mr. Turk’s services nor have I been paid by anyone to make this assertion).
6. A lotof Several money-managers think there may be no gold at Fort Knox – or very little – not just confirmed “conspiracists” – among whom I am proud to number myself. (Correction, Nov. 13: “No gold” doesn’t have to mean the absence of physical gold. Gold could be present physically, but it could owed to other entities, like a house that is technically in your name, but is really owned by all your creditors).
7. Rogers was more the driving force behind Quantum’s success than Soros.
8. There will be no secession. Americans aren’t up to it. The cognitive dissonance between perceived reality and “real” reality is too great for most people to grasp the extent of the corruption in the system. Any hope of rebellion rests with “red-necks” (apologies for using a racist term – I use it ironically here), not with yuppies.
9. The Indian market is riddled with fraud and hype. Jim Rogers thinks the Indian market is a scam. (I wouldn’t use that harsh a word, but I worry about hype and corruption in it too).
10. Brazil’s Fortaleza area, which has been attracting a lot of investor interest, has great beaches and weather…as well as slums, crime, and deadbeats of all kinds. Recommended for investing, not for living.
11. Argentine property laws are not as safe as US property laws (despite Kelo) – at least, at the level where it concerns the ordinary joe. Aggressive, organized squatting is a problem in rural areas.
12. The ongoing investigation of insider trading (eg., Galleon) is not just a one-day wonder, but might bite harder than expected.
Buffett Bets Big On US Economy
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway fund has pumped $34 billion into Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation, the USA’s second largest railroad.
“Berkshire’s $34 billion investment in BNSF is a huge bet on that company, CEO Matt Rose and his team, and the railroad industry,” Buffett said in a statement.
“Most important of all, however, it’s an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States. I love these bets,” he said.”
More at AP.
DTCC Conflicts Of Interest Include Ties With Penson, Goldman
More digging about Penson turns up a number of ties with regulators (this is probably par for the course, and not surprising). Penson Worldwide’s board of directors includes one David Kelly, who until 2000 was President of the National Securities Clearing Corporation, as well as Vice Chairman of DTCC.
More on DTCC here at Financial Wire, May 11, 2004
cited at Deep Capture.
(Lila : The DTCC is the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, not the Depository Trust Company, as indicated in the article)
“The Depository Trust Company (DTC) is a member of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, a limited-purpose trust company under New York State banking law and a registered clearing agency with the SEC. The depository supposedly brings efficiency to the securities industry by retaining custody of some 2 million securities issues, effectively “dematerializing” most of them so that they exist only as electronic files rather than as countless pieces of paper. The depository also provides the services necessary for the maintenance of the securities it has in “custody.”
The largely unregulated DTC has become something of a defacto Czar presiding over the entire U.S. markets system, wielding more day-to-day influence and control than the SEC, the NASD and NASDAQ combined. And, as the SEC’s June 4 ruling indicates, its monopoly over the electronic trading system appears even to be protected.
How entrenched is the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp.? It’s two preferred shareholders are the New York Stock Exchange and the NASD, a regulatory agency that also owns the NASDAQ (OTCBB: NDAQ) and the embattled American Stock Exchange! Regulators, regulate thyself?
In an era when corporate governance is the primary interest for the SEC and state regulators, the DTCC is hardly a role model. Its 21 directors represent a virtual litany of conflict:
They include Bradley Abelow, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS); Jonathan E. Beyman, Chief Information Officer, Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH); Frank J. Bisignano, Chief Administrative Officer and Senior Executive Vice President, Citigroup / Solomon Smith Barney’s Corporate Investment Bank (NYSE: C); Michael C. Bodson, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MWD); Gary Bullock, Global Head of Logistics, Infrastructure, UBS Investment Bank (NYSE: UBS); Stephen P. Casper, Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer, Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc.; Jill M. Considine,Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC);
Also, Paul F. Costello, President, Business Services Group, Wachovia Securities (NYSE: WB); John W. Cummings, Senior Vice President & Head of Global Technology & Services, Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER); Donald F. Donahue, Chief Operating Officer, The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC); Norman Eaker, General Partner, Edward Jones; George Hrabovsky, President, Alliance Global Investors Service; Catherine R. Kinney, President and Co-Chief Operating Officer, New York Stock Exchange; Thomas J. McCrossan, Executive Vice President, State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT); Eileen K. Murray, Managing Director, Credit Suisse First Boston (NYSE: CSR); James P. Palermo, Vice Chairman, Mellon Financial Corporation (NYSE: MEL); Thomas J. Perna, Senior Executive Vice President, Financial Companies Services Sector of The Bank of New York (NYSE: BNY); Ronald Purpora, Chief Executive Officer, Garban LLC; Douglas Shulman, President, Regulatory Services and Operations, NASD; and Thompson M. Swayne, Executive Vice President, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM).”