Commercial Real Estate Worsening..

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (financial instruments backed by debt derived from commercial real estate mortgages) are in growing trouble, says the Wall Street Journal:

“The CMBS sector is suffering two kinds of pain, which, according to credit rater Realpoint LLC, sent its delinquency rate to 3.14% in July, more than six times the level a year earlier. One is simply the result of bad underwriting. In the era of looser credit, Wall Street’s CMBS machine lent owners money on the assumption that occupancy and rents of their office buildings, hotels, stores or other commercial property would keep rising. In fact, the opposite has happened. The result is that a growing number of properties aren’t generating enough cash to make principal and interest payments.

The other kind of hurt is coming from the inability of property owners to refinance loans bundled into CMBS when these loans mature. By the end of 2012, some $153 billion in loans that make up CMBS are coming due, and close to $100 billion of that will face difficulty getting refinanced, according to Deutsche Bank. Even though the cash flows of these properties are enough to pay interest and principal on the debt, their values have fallen so far that borrowers won’t be able to extend existing mortgages or replace them with new debt. That means losses not only to the property owners but also to those who bought CMBS — including hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds and other financial institutions — thus exacerbating the economic downturn...”

My Comment

So there you have the reality under the green shoots hype. The economy might be showing good signs – why wouldn’t it, the amount of money that’s been thrown into it – but in the long-run, the refusal to let the underlying problem correct itself only drags out the crisis and makes it worse. And that’s just CMBS, one part of the entire commercial real estate market. The whole market is $6.7 trillion.

The failing loans make up about 1/60th of the entire market, but since they’re widely dispersed in individual and institutional portfolios, their impact will be far greater and more cumulative than their numbers would suggest. That was what happened with residential ARMs.

We explain the whole crisis in “Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets” (check out the new paper-back edition that came out from John Wiley, August 24, 2009) – look at the financial sections – “Flattening the Globe” (that explains the un-Friedmanesque facts behind globalization) and the section called “Bubble Kings.”

It’s a quick and easy but thoroughly researched run-down of what happened in the financial markets. You’ll be able to figure it out, even if you never took a course in economics.

In fact, it might be harder for you if you did take college economics, where the underlying premise is that static models can do better than real world analysis in predicting what’s going to happen.

How many of these academic experts, including Ben Bernanke, anticipated what might happen and explained clearly and accurately why it would happen? None, it looks like.

There’s a lot of revisionism going on now..People are rewriting what they said two years ago or five, or even farther back. But the truth is, the emperor (expert opinion) has been caught out wearing a g-string. And nothing much else.

The experts are buck (excuse the term) naked….

Government Conspiracy Theory Blames Hybrid Mortgages for Depression

Tom di Lorenzo at Lew Rockwell blog has this:

“Following Alan Greenspan’s pathetic “don’t blame me” speeches and books, various Fed branches have parroted his view that the Greenspan Depression we are in was caused by thrifty Orientals whose savings drove down interest rates.  So imagine my surprise upon receiving a hard copy of a Dallas Fed publicaton entitled “Taming the Credit Cycle by Limiting High-Risk Lending” and reading that “The present troubles emerged to a large extent from the growing use of hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages . . .”   Huh?  What happened to The New Yellow Peril?

There is no mention at all — not one word — of the role of Fed monetary policy in creating the housing bubble. The culprits, say these self-serving excuse makers (the author is Jeffrey W. Gunther), are “lightly regulated institutions” that are in need of the Fed’s “disciplining force.”

My Conment

Mr. di Lorenzo can relax –  this new tack does nothing to exonerate Greenspan. Look at this USA Today piece from early 2004, when housing was already showing bubbl-y tendencies:

“He [Greenspan] said a Fed study suggested many homeowners could have saved tens of thousands of dollars in the last decade if they had ARMs. Those savings would not have been realized, however, had interest rates shot up.

“American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage,” Greenspan said.”

Read through the whole piece and it’s  clear that American house buyers actually “preferred the stability” of the traditional fixed rate mortgages. In other words, it was only a concerted PR effort by Greenspan & Co. that changed people’s tastes in this.

Let that put an end to any moralizing of this issue.  Yes – rampant consumerism and debt binging exacerbated the problem. But the problem wasn’t caused by some moral defect in American consumers. It was caused by policies deliberately pushed by the federal government in the hope that the consumer would succumb. The chairman of the Federal Reserve thus acted no differently from any confidence man or grifter who spots a mark (a naive, uninformed person easy to manipulate), then sets about winning the mark’s confidence before baiting the trap….

You can see the chairman’s own words to the national association of credit unions on February 23, 2004. (Skip down to the last 2-3 paragraphs to catch the gist)

And now, just like any con man, the Fed chairman too blames his victims.

They had it coming to them...


More Dollar Decline Imminent?

I’m not any place where I can blog easily but I had to post this paragraph from Jim Willie’s newsletter on a possible dollar debacle in the coming week/weeks…

I’m hearing that US embassies are being instructed to buy the local currency (?) –

Is this really in the works, is it scare-mongering, gossip, disinformation…?

Who knows, but it’s worth posting.

Be alert.

I note that gold, after looking like it would correct, now seems to have gone back up and the dollar is teetering again…as it’s done many a time.

I’m ready to move if I have to.

Down here in the pampas, swine flu is rampant. People go in and out of Buenos Aires with masks. The portenos don’t have the best reputation on the continent, and this is making it worse. Everyone is holding their breath anyway – with or without masks.

The winds are beginning to blow in from the delta, as they always do at this time of year. It feels like brisk spring weather in the US. Prices in the city are high but everyone is waiting for something to happen. Don’t buy now, says an expat blogger who watches real estate. Everything’s about to come down. People are pushing up the prices to squeeze out the last penny before things crash.

Don’t have anything to do with them, says a Brazilian businessman. “Them” means Argentines – who are said to be arrogant…touchy….corrupt…drama queens…

One the other hand, everyone likes the Brazilians. They’re the Italians of South America.

In Argentina, they have farms and food…and they cry, goes a Brazilian saying. In Brazil, they don’t have food. And they dance.

It’s true.

I had lunch at a restaurant on the banks of the Rio dela Plata with an American  – a just-retired attorney from Virginia – who is down here looking for property. He was talking about vaccinations. Some of his theories were definitely paranoid – but it’s the kind of paranoia that’s plausible these days. He wanted to drop his American citizenship, but was afraid it would raise a red flag. He talked about the exit tax and how it prevented the wealthy from leaving. It was the first time in my life I was grateful for not being a financial success.

I suggested that the purloined letter strategy might be the best. Hide right out in the open, in the most obvious place. We discussed what that would be. It was a toss up between getting a job at Goldman Sachs, working for the Pentagon, or emigrating to some member of the Axis of Evil.

He had fish. I had a salad – an odd choice in this meat-saturated culture. But I’m on a budget. Wandering the globe on your own steam would be ruinous without one. For me, a night at a restaurant means a couple of days of rice and beans to make up for it. I haven’t couch-surfed yet, but it may yet be in the cards, if this trip gets prolonged.

Jim Willie:

“The globe is losing patience with leadership and management of the USGovt ship at sea. They simply refuse to offer a credible solution to the primary keynote crack in the hull, falling housing prices and cratered mortgages, each of which work their destructive magic to wreck the banks. The home loan modifications are a farce, a travesty not designed to modify but rather to frame a series of loan forbearances. The motive for not fixing the mortgage mess is mysterious to the masses, but not here. Jackass claims have been consistent, that effective loan modifications would alter the underlying mortgage bonds drastically. The Powerz wanted enough time delay to rejigger as many mortgage bonds as possible into new securities, thus rendering impossible any legal challenges to the original mortgage package process that was loaded with fraud to the hilt. Any drastic alteration of mortgage bonds would reveal vast fraud of two types. Many mortgage bonds did not have clearly certificate property titles with careful registrations. And then the coyote ugly part, that many mortgage bonds were simply counterfeits sold into a frenzy filled credit market designed to process the most vile vermin on paper. The USDollar is vulnerable here and now, as a new wave of bank losses is imminent from numerous types of mortgages along with some basic types. Let’s see if the grapevine is correct, that the USDollar will begin to see a trashing initiative starting this weekend, out of Asia. They must be impatient beyond description. This autumn is expected to see some rather tumultuous events unfold, as the US financial structures are breaking across most of its ramparts even as loyalty to it is fading like a mist. There will be no return to the US of yesteryear, only a tragic march.”



Madoff Feeder Funds Sued for Complicity in Fraud

After having said I won’t touch the Madoff story until my site gets a bit more protection, I
couldn’t resist this latest confirmation of something I said way back in December – that the feeder funds probably knew perfectly well what was going on and that “philanthropy” in many instances was just a cover for criminal activity or for misuse of funds.  Note the similarity to the scandals at Fannie and Acorn, where the mandate to help poorer people get housing loans also provided moral cover for crime.

One critic correctly points out that Madoff targeted charities, precisely because their pay out every year was only 5% of their capital. This was ideal for a Ponzi scheme, since it allowed Madoff to give out very little of what he took in each year.

“the American Jewish Congress which “defends Jewish interests at home and abroad through public policy advocacy using diplomacy, legislation and the courts.” It reported about 24 million dollars in assets, but only spends about 3 million dollars per year. At that rate, it could have continued its work through 2017 without further fundraising or investment income. Instead they invested their money with Bernie Madoff, losing 87% of the endowment!” [Who Made Off With Our Tzedakkah? Time to blame the victims,” Daniel E. Loeb]

I told you back then that people who’d made out like bandits would be suing as though they were victims. How did I know that? Well – I taught high school.  There’s nothing about human nature, good and bad, you don’t see there..

I know how well-heeled non-profits operate. Half the time, money meant to benefit children never gets to them. It ends up in the pockets of administrators, lawyers, and various salesmen and middlemen.

The whole educational/research establishment is rife with fraud of all kinds. Some of it is unintentional fraud – where the money gets to the intended recipient, although the activity of the recipient (the research or whatever else) is pretty much a dead-end or a waste. But in other cases, the fraud is intentional, as below.

Here’s the latest from Fox News:

“Also among those sued Tuesday is one of the leading educational philanthropies in the United States, which claims it was wiped out by Madoff’s far-reaching fraud.

The complaint filed Tuesday alleges the Picower Foundation and several related entities made nearly $7 billion by investing with Madoff. At least $5.1 billion of that came out of the pockets of victims of a giant Ponzi scheme, and should be returned, it [the complaint by court-appointed trustee Irving Picard] said.”

And more:

“The Palm Beach, Fla.-based foundation had given millions to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Human Rights First and the New York Public Library. It also funded diabetes research at Harvard Medical School.

The trustee’s Picower complaint says Madoff managed accounts that earned astronomical returns over 13 years. One purported to earn 950 percent in 1999.”

My Comment

Very different from the spin we first heard, right? Remember they were telling us back in January that the funds returned very average earnings and no one could be expected to have seen through the scheme? Turns out that that wasn’t quite the way it was.  Nearly thousand percent returns? How hard is that to question?

This also confirms what I said in “Nationalization in a Time of Monopoly,” as well as in a later piece “Nightmare on Wall Street”:  A lot of the fraud was committed at the height of the bubble economy and involved a number of players. [Note: Obviously, Picard’s allegations are just that at the moment. We will have to wait and see how the suit plays out to get a better idea and hear more of the evidence on either side].

Far-fetched conspiracy theory?

Not at all. There are only a limited set of powerful actors at the highest levels of Wall Street. Bernie Madoff wasn’t a sidekick. He played at the top.  The people at the top knew him (I mean, SEC honchos, leading bankers and money managers, government bigwigs). He didn’t do all this without a wink and a nod.

Which means there’s more going on here than meets even Picard’s eye. But  until I get my site better protected, I’m not planning on digging any more…

Meanwhile, on the Madoff connection to the mob, there’s an interesting post at Deep Capture blog, which has this:

“After Milken was indicted, Black rallied to Milken’s defense. It was Black [Leon Black], more than anyone, who prevented Drexel from firing Milken. And Black has remained obstinately loyal to the criminal Milken ever since. After Milken went to prison, Black founded the Apollo Group, an investment partnership that received most of its initial funding from a French aristocrat named Rene Thierry Magon de La Villehuchet.

Among Black’s first moves as an independent “prominent investor” was to launch a takeover bid for Executive Life, a bankrupt insurance and financial services conglomerate…….Later, though, it emerged that Black’s takeover of Executive Life had been illegal because he had secretly been fronting for certain French investors, including Monsieur Rene Thierry de La Villehuchet. Some of the French investors had illegally parked stock with Black to hide their involvement (“parking stock” being one of the favorite techniques of the Milken-Boesky-Thorp crew, and a recurrent theme in the 98-count indictment that sent Milken to jail).”

The French aristocrat, Rene Thierry de la Villehuchet, was the manager of one of the Madoff feeder funds. He killed himself earlier this year,  reportedly from a sense of honor toward his clients whose money was lost in the scam. But if the account at DeepCapture is to be believed, he seems to have been involved in rather shady deals even before getting together with Madoff.

Financial Follies: Condo Builders Under Water

In the news today, AP reports:

Multifamily construction plunged 46.1 percent to an annual rate of 90,000 units after a 23 percent fall in March. Permits for multifamily construction dropped 19.9 percent to 121,000 units. Analysts said apartment construction is being hurt by a glut of condominiums on the market and by tightening credit conditions for commercial real estate.”

My Comment

Oh, my. This made my day. Condo flippers and developers are in big trouble.

Overlook the opening of this article, with that plaintive reference to a ” modest rebound in single-family home construction in April” that  “raised hopes.

Hopes should not be raised. That’s pretty clear by now. Not unless you’re being paid to pump houses for some rash developer who ran out of buyers for his pet eye-sore. We can think of a number of things that should be raised  – black flags, eyebrows, interest rates…..but not hopes.

I’ve been checking condo prices all over the world and it’s the same news. From Panama to Kuala Lumpur, from Miami to  Baltimore. Commercial developers are in trouble.

If that doesn’t warm the cockles of your heart and put a smile on your face, I don’t know what will. These wretched companies drove up housing by 100-300% (and more) in some cities and literally chased people on small or fixed incomes out of places they’d been living for years.

And don’t tell me they added any real value.

In New York. construction in one building was so shoddy, the Buildings Department had to intervene.  I personally inspected a condo where, when the owner kicked the wall, her foot went right through.  Many of them were aesthetic monstrosities that ruined the skyline,  polluted the air, and destroyed the architectural beauty of the places where they metastasized.

Now there’s a glut and the developers are losing their shirts.

Miami’s condo king, Jorge Perez, is sitting on top of a market with the biggest glut in the country. Since 2003, nearly 23000 condos were added to downtown Miami, and 33% of them remain unsold. The financial hurricane hit just when Perez, the “tropical Trump,” had opened his newest project, Icon Brickell, a boutique hotel combined with over 1,640 luxury apartments and squeezed into three towers. Only 18 units have sold so far. Perez (once estimated to have a net worth of $1.3 billion) is in big money trouble. His company, Related Group, lost $1 billion in 2008 and ran up debt of $2 billion, $700 million from Icon Brickell alone.

It just doesn’t get better than that….

Bail-Out for Insurers

In the news:

The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. was the first to disclose Thursday that it had been notified by the Treasury Department that it was eligible for $3.4 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Lincoln National Corp., which commonly goes by the name Lincoln Financial Group, said it has been initially approved for a $2.5 billion injection from TARP’s Capital Purchase Program.

Allstate Corp., Ameriprise Financial Inc., Principal Financial Group Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc. also are among insurers receiving preliminary investment approval, Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams confirmed. He declined to disclose the amount of investment each company will receive.

The total capital injection into the six companies will be less than $22 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the situation…”

My Comment

22 billion might not seem like a lot, but insurers’ holdings have taken a big hit in recent months, it seems, and a cut in their ratings would have been likely once their assets fell below a certain level.

So you have government ownership of large parts of the housing market (which itself covers, in all its aspects some 30% of the economy), extensive government intervention in banking and insurance, government run trade, government run schools and colleges, government run social security and medicaid and medicare, and what does the left think the problem is? The free market!

Record Prices for Rarities at Auction Sales

High prices at auctions are an indication that investors are avidly interested in high quality tangible assets which will hold onto their value and are ready to pay extraordinary prices for them even in this market. Two illustrations from the auctions houses:

In Namure in southern Belgium, on Sunday, demand for Tintin, the cartoon reporter, broke national and world sales records, AFP reports. Five hand-drawn pages by Herge raised 1, 172,000 euros (1.57 million dollars) a world record for Herge as well as a national record for cartoon strips books. Buyers came from all over Europe, the United States, Lebanon and China.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that at Sotheby’s semi-annual sale at Geneva, a virgin blue diamond straight from South Africa, weighing 7.03 carats, sold to any anonymous buyer on May 12, Tuesday, for a record 10.5 million Swiss francs ($9.49 million), including commission, the highest price paid per carat for any gemstone at auction and a new world record price for blue diamonds. The sale price without commission, a record, was $1,349,752, Sotheby’s said.

Dollar Surprise

From Chris Gaffney, Vice-President of Everbank:

“As most would predict, the Mexican peso (MXN) has dropped significantly, moving down almost 3% versus the U.S. dollar overnight. Fears of a global pandemic have driven investors out of the high yielding currencies of New Zealand (NZD), Australia (AUD), and Brazil (BRL). Risk aversion seems to be back in vogue, with investors moving funds back into U.S. Treasuries and the Japanese yen (JPY).

I read a story over the weekend that suggested the U.S. dollar would continue to strengthen no matter what happens in the global economy. The story said that the U.S. dollar would increase if the administration’s efforts to stimulate our economy worked, and that we would lead the rest of the globe into the recovery phase. On the other hand, it said that the U.S. dollar would also strengthen if the global economy continued to weaken, as investors would purchase U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven.”

My Comment:

This insight about the performance of the US dollar has also been mine.

De-leveraging (which is the collapse of asset values as they’re sold to pay off debt)  is going on now all over the world in different asset classes. And de-leveraging mostly needs the US dollar.

In spite of a few sharp corrections downward, that’s what has held the dollar index (DX) up for a bit longer than dollar bears had anticipated.

Holding up, of course, is not the same as “bull market”.

The dollar’s fundamentals are still bad.

I  don’t have hopes for any currency tied to a government behaving so recklessly. I hesitate to write this, but some of the high-level corruption we’ve seen is actually beyond third-world.

I say this with no schadenfreude. It’s deeply, traumatically, disturbing to find so much rot at the heart of the global financial system. At the very core of the “international community, ” if you will.

The worst criticism of imperialism, or of statism, or of financial corruption didn’t prepare me for this.

And it makes me very afraid.

What example does such behavior set? What message does it send to a world which takes its cue from the West, and from the US in particular. Can we really expect better from other governments?

Bernanke and Paulson Pressured BOA-Merrill Merger

More evidence of behind-the-scenes string-pulling in the banking crisis:

NEW YORK (Reuters) –

Bank of America Corp CEO Kenneth Lewis testified under oath that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pressured him to keep quiet about losses at Merrill Lynch & Co, which the bank was buying, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Testifying before New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in February, Lewis said “it wasn’t up to me” to reveal Merrill’s fourth-quarter losses as they were becoming apparent in December, the newspaper said, citing a deposition transcript.

Shareholders of Merrill and Bank of America voted to approve the merger on December 5, and the transaction closed on January 1. Bank of America subsequently reported that Merrill lost $15.84 billion in the fourth quarter.

At Bank of America’s April 29 annual meeting, shareholders will vote on whether to force Lewis to step down as chairman of the largest U.S. bank or leave its board, because of Merrill and a falling share price…”

Read more at Reuters

My Comment

Why do people think nationalization will improve matters?

We’ve nationalized already…. unofficially.

Making it official won’t improve anything. It will just get people to accept what’s going on and legitimize the swindle.

We’re like bystanders at a mugging fighting over who ought to get the money the mugger left behind when he fled.

No. See mugging, call cops.

That’s how it’s supposed to go.