What China Wants

The Financial Times points out the quirks in the Chinese market that have Western companies racking their brains to stay on top of sales:

The big spender in China, in years past and even more so today, is the state: private consumption as a percentage of gross domestic product has fallen from 60 per cent in 1968 to 36 per cent last year and could be as low as one-fifth in 2009 as the government ramps up capital investment.

In fact, the Chinese, who already have a world-beating savings rate of nearly 40 per cent of their income, tend to become more frugal when times are tough. As bank deposit rates decline, most of us spend more. The Chinese tend to stash away even greater sums to make up for the lost interest. The reason for this conservatism is the lack of a social safety net in China – citizens have to provide for their own medical care, old age and possible unemployment.

This makes them “penny pinching, ruthless, suspicious shoppers”, says Tom Doctoroff, north Asia director of advertising agency JWT and a writer on Chinese consumer trends. In a recession this behaviour only grows worse. “The downturn has made people keener on finding the cheapest deal,” says Yuval Atsmon, an associate principal in McKinsey’s Shanghai office. Even when they can easily afford it, buying a PC typically involves six visits to a store, and more often than not, customers will wait six months before making their decision after consulting blogs, online comparison sites and – the most important source of information in China – friends and family. Sales of copycat mobile phones, with all the functions of top models but a lower price, have soared from 17 million units in 2006 to 62 million units last year.

Brand consciousness is high, at least in the big cities, but brand loyalty is much lower than in the west. A price cut or good in-store promotion can often sway shoppers. And for cultural reasons, appealing to an individual’s taste or personal comfort typically doesn’t work, Doctoroff points out. A purchase either has to publicly signal status or wealth, like a flashy car does. Or provide a practical benefit: the latest craze in China is chocolate with added calcium, eaten not for pleasure but for the health benefits. The growing appeal of diamonds to women is not based on romance, but as a financial signal of a man’s commitment. Trust is another key issue in a country where so many consumer products are faked. Chinese mothers, for example, will pay 30 per cent more for safe baby milk – and this should favour foreign brands.

But foreign retailers and manufacturers have to cope with vast regional differences in demographics, language and culture that make it hard to plan a single marketing strategy – indeed treating China like a single country is usually a mistake. Natives of Zhejiang on the east coast like “toilet roll as rough as sandpaper”, the former head of Wal-Mart China liked to observe, a penchant thankfully absent elsewhere. Atsmon points out that cities even an hour apart can be entirely different: in southern Shenzhen, more than four-fifths of the population consists of migrant workers, mostly under the age of 35, who speak Mandarin and drink in bars. In nearby Guangzhou, migrants number just over a quarter, more people are older, enjoy watching Cantonese TV and go out to restaurants to drink with family members. Adequately addressing such niches requires an army of local suppliers, costly infrastructure and several layers of wholesalers and intermediaries. Even then, success may remain as elusive as it always has been: “No matter what you may be selling, your business in China should be enormous, if the Chinese who should buy your goods would only do so,” lamented Carl Crow, an advertising executive in Shanghai and author of the original book on how to sell to the Chinese … more than 70 years ago.”

Soros: Gold In Bubble; But Keep Stimulus Going…..

Always nice to see people talk out of both sides of their mouth.

Here is currency speculator George Soros (ex of legendary hedge-fund Quantum) at the World Economic Forum at Davos:

“When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold.”

So far so good. Mis-price money (cheap interest rates) and people don’t want to keep their savings in it. They want it in something that isn’t subject to mis-pricing (so they hope) – hence gold.

But then Soros shows how disingenuous he’s being by adding this:

“I think that since the adjustment process to the recession is incomplete, there is a need for additional stimulus. Some countries, like the US and European countries, have plenty of room to increase their deficits. The political resistance to doing so increases the chances of a double dip in the economy in 2011 and after that.”

That is, he’s suggesting running more deficits and keeping the money spigot going, just the thing that’s caused the gold price to rise.

So how do we understand this?

Gold is due for a technical correction, but it’s also probably responding to deflation in the general economy. It’s not going down that fast, because a lot of people are also buying it speculatively.

That’s the tug of war.

Meanwhile, who know what Soros’ holdings are and who knows what his motivations are in making such contradictory statements.

But anyone who takes these sorts of pronouncements as any kind of lead for their own investments/speculations, should be prepared to part fairly soon from their money.

David Tice On King World News: Trouble Ahead….

David Tice on Eric King’s King World News, December 23, 2009

  • This is not another inventory recession; this is unprecedented
  • There’s trouble all over the globe – Europe, China, Japan..
  • Hunker down, cut back expenditures, get out of stocks, own gold
  • Look for deflation followed by competitive currency devaluation, then inflation.

Executive Order 12425: Interpol Brings Global Police State to US

John Whitehead of the Rutherford Institute (via Lew Rockwell) sounds the alarm over executive order 12425, which places the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) beyond the reach of domestic laws,  freedom of information act requests and constitutional checks.

“It’s hard to know exactly what the fallout from this executive order will be, but the ramifications for the American people could be ominous. For instance, if Interpol engages in illegal and/or unconstitutional activities against American citizens, it will be impossible for U.S. citizens to obtain information – via subpoena or other commonly used legal methods – regarding its records or activities. Continue reading

Adrian Ash: Here Comes Stagflation

The whole inflation-deflation debate has always struck me as misbegotten.  People use the terms to mean things so varied that it’s pointless to argue. But such as it is, I’m  a firm believer in the deflationary thesis on the macro level… influenced in this by the economist Antal Fekete , and his theory of how capital is destroyed in a fiat money regime.

Nonetheless, I do see consumer prices rising.

In other words, asset prices fall, industry contracts, and unemployment levels stay high, while the stuff on the shelves costs more, insurance and tuition  rates climb, and living in general becomes more expensive. Continue reading

Bill Anderson On The New KKK: Kleptocrats, Kartels, and Kon Men

“As I see it, the bankers are not clueless at all. They understand the game, they understand that the government is going to clean up the mess that they and their friends in Congress and the Bush and Obama administrations have created, and they understand that their antics are going to give them what they always have wanted: a nice, cozy, financial cartel which will provide sweet political contributions for the political classes, bonuses and high pay for themselves, and very little for everyone else. Continue reading

Sith-Lord Sweep: AG’s Pending Indictments Cover Major Hedgies, Journalists, and Regulators

Corporate finance generalist, investment banker and expert in derivatives, Austin Burrell, sums up last week’s announcement by Attorney-General Eric Holder that there are 5000 pending indictments [sic] arising out of the investigation of fraud in the capital markets:

[Note: the DOJ is involved in some 5000 odd cases of fraud related to the financial industry… Continue reading

Hedge Funds: Top Ten Earners in 2007/2008

New York Magazine had a piece in 2007 that sorted the hedge-fund elites into categories like “brainiacs” (like James Simon and Jim Chanos) and “bad boys” (like Daniel Loeb).

The category “Top dogs” (that is, the very best hedgies) includes SAC Capital Advisers/Steven Cohen ($12 b); Cerberus Capital/Stephen Feinberg ($19.5 b); Appaloosa Mgt/David Tepper ($5.3 b); ESL/Eddie Lampert ($18 b); Citadel Investment Group/Kenneth Griffin ($13.5 b); Manhattan/Michael Novogratz ($4.6b).

[Note: the figures were as of 2007].

This is the short list of the managers whom the industry thinks are top dogs, and of these six, one (Feinberg) is directly connected to Drexel Burnham Lambert, convicted junk bond financier Michael Milken’s bank; another (Cohen) is connected indirectly to Milken through Gruntal & Co.; and three are alumni of Goldman Sachs(Tepper, Lampert, Novogratz).

Five out of six and that’s just a cursory examination. I didn’t do anything more than google to get that.

And the financial press thinks there are no Sith Lords?

A more conventional ranking is found below: Continue reading

Lanka Needs Soros Like A Hole In The Head

Ajit Randaniya in Lanka Web:

“In 1992, Soros earned the epithet “the man who broke the Bank of England” by demanding the Bank to raise its interest rates or to float the currency (so that he could make more money). The Bank did neither. He retaliated by selling “short” more than $10 billion worth of pound sterling, forcing the Bank of England to depreciate the pound: Soros amassed an estimated US$ 1.1 billion in the process. Continue reading

Kingsford Capital And The Captured Media

Mark Mitchell at Deep Capture has some interesting details about the extensive influence of hedge-funds, specifically Kingsford Capital, on the reporting of stories in the financial press:

“Another focus of my investigation at CJR was the appalling bear raid on a collectibles company called Escala. Not only was Escala the victim of massive amounts of illegal naked short selling, but a hedge fund convinced the Spanish government that Escala’s parent company, based in Madrid, was fleecing investors in philatelic collectibles. Continue reading