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Gerald Celente interviewed by Judge Andrew Neapolitano. Central banks are bailing out the private sector all over the world.
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Gerald Celente interviewed by Judge Andrew Neapolitano. Central banks are bailing out the private sector all over the world.
Palak Shah at the Business Standard :
“US micro hedge fund legend George Soros and the world’s third biggest philanthropist George Kaiser are in the race to acquire close to 4 per cent in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Asia’s oldest stock exchange.
Soros has bid for the BSE stake, held by the embattled Dubai Financial Group LLC, through Soros Fund Management LLC, and Kaiser has done so through private equity fund, Argonaut.
Other investors who have bid for BSE stake include New York-based private equity majors J C Flowers and Caldwell Investment, promoted by Toronto investment broker Thomas Caldwell. Caldwell is a specialist investor in stock exchanges and bought 4.3 million shares of the New York Stock Exchange in 2006. Sources added that a private equity fund has bid Rs 370 for each share, valuing BSE at over Rs 3,800 crore. Avendus Capital is advisor to the deal.
Dubai Financial, part of sovereign fund Dubai Holding, holds 3.92 per cent stake in BSE, which it bought when the exchange was demutualised in 2007. BSE was then valued at Rs 3,780 crore. While BSE and Avendus could not be reached for comment, sources familiar with the developments said Dubai Financial felt the exchange deserved a higher valuation in the current situation.
In the recent past, the valuation of the exchange saw a sudden spurt after a new management team took over in 2009.
While some stock brokers sold BSE shares at around Rs 180 a piece some six months ago, a bank auctioned 0.27 million shares at Rs 320 a couple of months ago.
Under the new management, BSE changed its derivative trading cycle to compete with the National Stock Exchange, launched a mutual fund trading platform and is upgrading its technology platform. BSE currently has a near 28 per cent share of the equity spot market in the country and has been making efforts to develop its derivative trading segment, where National Stock Exchange is a monopoly player. BSE will launch currency derivatives in May and is also in the process of increasing its stake in Central Depository Services Ltd to 51 per cent.
Currently, six foreign investors hold 25.65 per cent of BSE and five Indian institutions hold 12 per cent.
A little under 62 per cent of BSE’s shares are widely held. Among the key Indian shareholders are firms such as Bajaj Holdings and Investment, which owns 2.94 per cent, Infosys Technologies CEO and MD S. Gopalakrishnan, who owns 1.04 per cent and media major Bennett, Coleman and Co, which owns 1.04 per cent.
BSE recently announced 12 bonus shares for every share held and the exchange currently has around Rs 2,000 crore of cash reserves, which translates into cash per share of at least Rs 190.
BSE posted a net profit of Rs 55.42 crore on revenue of Rs119.21 crore for the quarter ended December 2009.”
The launching of the mutual fund platform and the upgrading of the technology and expansion of derivative trading is exactly what Goldman Sachs introduced into the New York Stock Exchange in the 1990s. And we saw what happened in the 15 years following. And Goldman is in India, currently seeking a commercial banking license to operate there.
With the same players around (Soros, Goldman Sachs etc. ), there’s no reason to believe that what’s coming up for the Bombay Stock Exchange won’t take the same direction. Before the financial crisis, the Indians had little exposure to the highly levered derivatives and toxic debt that blew up the system elsewhere. Let’s see whether this upcoming round they’ll be as lucky. With economies stagnant elsewhere, Asia and some select African countries are the only places where there’s actual economic growth occurring.
I’m afraid the same handful of corrupt players will game the system there…
More here at The Economic Times:
“His hedge fund Quantum, which was reported to have posted earnings of over 30% last year, went on a buying- spree at a time, when most funds were dumping stocks in a sliding market. On July 4, Quantum Fund bought a 3.8% equity in Jain Irrigation Systems, and close to 1% of the holding of Jai Corp for a value consideration of Rs 167 crore. Since February, the fund has made investments valued at close to Rs 600 crore, or $ 140 million, in various companies, including Indiabulls Financial Services, Indiabulls Real Estate and Kalindee Rail Nirman. Quantum’s selective stock picking comes at a time, when institutional investors have been pulling out a large chunk of money amid concerns over a combination of factors such as weak global markets, soaring global oil prices and spiraling inflation in India. “Hedge funds normally are active, when there is some momentum in the market. Quantum may be trying to do some value-buying, but one has to see how long the fund stays invested, given the prevailing uncertain market conditions,” said a stock-broker..”
Remember Formula K (or, the First Law of Kleptocracy) :
s(B) + s(G) + s(S) v. EE where ‘s’ is always a positive integer
Some (s) of the big banks (B – eg. JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi etc.)
+
Some parts of government (G – eg. parts of the SEC/Treasury/Fed Reserve Chairman, IMF, World Bank etc.)
+
Some hedge-funds and speculators (S – eg. Soros, Paulson (?), Loeb, Cohen and others reportedly involved in manipulation and collusion with government)
Versus
Every one else (EE)
“Congressional leaders are raising to 3.8 percent their proposed new Medicare tax on investment income in the final health-care overhaul plan, a Democratic leadership aide said.
The rate is higher than the 2.9 percent President Barack Obama proposed in February. Under Obama’s proposal, the new tax would apply to income from interest, dividends, annuities, royalties, capital gains, and rents for individuals who earn more than $200,000 and joint filers reporting more than $250,000.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, asked today if the tax applied to capital gains, said it would be imposed on unearned income “whatever category it is.”
It would be the first time Medicare taxes would cover investment income. The current 2.9 percent Medicare levy currently applies only to salaries and is split evenly between workers and their employees.”
My Comment:
No redistribution of the ill-gotten loot of the corrupt mega banks and their government and speculator associates …loot that runs to billions. Instead, the administration goes after middle-class investment income. This is a first, and it sets an unholy precedent for the future. Does this government not get that we need to increase capital formation, not slow it down?
Daily life in India grows more surreal for the ordinary man, says writer Pritish Nandy:
“You can’t afford food? No worries, we will give you a stunning cricket extravaganza with lots of movie stars and pretty cheerleaders.
You feel insecure because Maoists are now in 20 states and have killed more people than the jihadis? Don’t bother, we will buy you a $2.35 billion refurbished old Russian warship.
Your cities are crumbling under the pressure of migration because agriculture’s no longer a sustainable profession? No stress, we will build you fancy bridges and flyovers and walkways where no one will ever walk.
You can’t find a job despite all your education? No sweat, we promise 30% reservations for women in the Lok Sabha.
Increasing terrorist strikes are scaring you? Chill yaar, we will give you the perfect Indo-US nuclear deal.
Public transportation in the cities is on the verge of collapsing? Not an issue, we are building helipads at prominent locations.”
— Pritish Nandy, “The Wonderland That’s India,” Times of India, March 15, 2010
Steve Forbes points out that government subsidies in the housing market weren’t needed for Canadians to become home owners:
“The Bush Administration botched an opportunity in 2008 to put these entities in receivership, with the idea of either liquidating or privatizing them. A winding down of Fannie and Freddie would have led to a birth of new players, well-capitalized and ready and willing to buy, package and sell home mortgages–and subject to failure.
The Obama Administration won’t formally nationalize the current Fannie and Freddie because that would swell the official budget deficit. And it certainly won’t countenance the idea of privatizing them. That will have to wait until we have a Republican President. Fortunately, this individual will have a Congress with enough new members who won’t have been corrupted by Fannie and Freddie the way previous occupants on Capitol Hill were. Certainly public opinion will back privatization. In fact, the two companies should be recapitalized, broken up into at least a half-dozen entities and sent out into the real world, with no ties to Washington.
Studies have conclusively shown that Fannie and Freddie did virtually nothing to boost home ownership. Canada, for instance, has almost none of the props for housing that the U.S. has had, yet the proportion of its population owning homes wasn’t much different from that of the U.S. before the bubble.”
The article then ranges widely, moving from Michael Crichton (best-known, outside his fiction, for his skepticism about anthropogenic global warming) to the ban on DDT, which Forbes blames for a resurgence in malaria world-wide:
“Not only is malaria on the rise because we won’t use DDT to kill mosquitoes but so are other insect-borne diseases, such as dengue fever. “
My Comment:
On the GSE’s I agree with Forbes. But not on DDT, where his argument is one that activists in the field hotly rebut. Water-borne diseases, especially, are largely a product of poor sanitation. And filthy water, they say, is also to blame for the return of malaria.
Forbes then makes the argument that DDT, properly used, doesn’t have the bad effects attributed to it by Rachel Carson, in her seminal book, “Silent Spring.”
The operative word here is “properly used.”
(You could, after all, say as much about Credit Default Swaps. Properly used, they aren’t harmful either).
Anything can be “improperly used.” So where do you draw the line? What’s the proper use of DDT?
Experts say it should be confined to dusting the insides of homes, instead of the large-scale crop-dusting that had a toxic effect on the environment earlier. That sounds fairly reasonable, if the DDT is used along with more sustainable, local practices – draining and cleaning stagnant water and sewers, and, most important of all, improving public hygiene. Without that, chemicals are pointless in the long term.
More than half of India (to take an example) lacks access to toilets and defecates in public. Surely that fact, as well as the problem of wet waste, takes precedence in any discussion of health. That means the root of most diseases in India, including malaria, is poverty and bad habits, the solution to which really isn’t DDT, but economic development and cultural reform.
I did a piece on this called, “Cleaning House” (Alternet, Feb 5, 2004), where I discussed the phenomenon of Not In My Back Yard that prevents community best practices from being implemented on a larger scale.
“When I walk over to my nephew’s house, only a mile and a half away in a rural campus, my journey has a Victorian arduousness to it. I have to pick my way gingerly through the dusty path cutting across the field, alert for dozing vipers, lantana thorns, cantankerous goats tethered to the bushes, and random puddings of animal and human excreta. At first, it is a mystery where these come from because the villages are a good bit away. But distance does not dim the force of the NIMBY (not in my backyard) sentiment, which until recent years has been the motto of Indian civic life.”
Beyond poverty and flawed culture (and often driving them), there’s also the government.
The filth in public spaces is one of the tragedies of the commons. When everyone owns something, no one cares for it. That’s the fate of public space in India, socialist since independence in 1947, with a bureaucracy fattened by years of being a poster-child for poverty on the international aid circuit.
At least in the cases of Africa and Asia, then, the social and political context is absolutely crucial in arguments about economic liberty and technology. And the perspective from the ground, in the case of malaria and other tropical diseases, suggests a different kind of technology from bio-tech, one in which regulation isn’t much of an issue at all.
Jason Gale, Bloomberg, May 2007:
“Nair says modern sewers aren’t the answer for India. The country can’t afford to waste water by flushing it down a latrine. Instead, she’s encouraging airplane-style commodes that are vacuum cleared or toilets that are attached to contained pits rather than systems that pipe the effluent miles away for treatment. In Nair’s world, recycling human excrement for use as fertilizer is preferable.
“We need to invent our own devices which are cost- effective, environmentally sustainable and go with our people,” she says. “We cannot afford the things which are simply things that some civil engineer learned somewhere.”
Converting excreta that have been properly dried for 6-24 months into plant food uses less water than traditional sewage systems and is less likely to pollute waterways, Payden says.
Bartram says composted sewage that’s been handled correctly can be used in agriculture and for other beneficial purposes with negligible risk to human health. The challenge is to sanitize it so that disease-carrying organisms are eliminated.”
If cleaning the streets is more important than spraying DDT, in long-term control of malaria in India, then we’ve by-passed the regulatory problems associated with the chemical altogether.
In this case, as in others, activities that have a direct effect on the eco-system or the human organism (DDT) and activities that don’t (housing subsidies) can’t really be yoked together in analysis without problems. I tend to think that using the same model of reasoning for both, then, doesn’t yield correct answers, because it’s a function of a certain degree of ideological fundamentalism or literalism.
Everything is always a matter of interpretation.
Update:
In much the same way, I’d argue that the corrupt culture in Wall Street has to change before bans on this or that financial instrument are considered (that is, if one were to even concede that bans were necessary). Which is why the market-reform movement and the prosecution of crime come first, before changes in regulation.
Update:
The government of India’s rather optimistic schedule is to achieve its sanitation goals by 2010 and it’s using economic incentives to get there. ($48 for each installed toilet in Haryana).* It isn’t likely to get there that fast, but the program does suggest one area in which you can invest confidently – sanitation technology.
*I’m not endorsing this or any other government program, I’m merely noting it.
The head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, Cardinal Peter Turkson, has moved away from his predecessor’s support for developing genetically modified food to alleviate hunger in poor countries. Instead, he argues that adoption of the “precautionary principle” is warranted:
“There are a lot of claims that are disputed (like) that GMOs never call for the use of pesticides or insecticides or anything because they are resistant,” he said. Such claims have been challenged, he said, and some say “at a certain point (these crops) require insecticides whose chemicals break up later in the soil and render the soil less fertile.”
Given the disputed claims and doubts, “I think that we should go easy and probably satisfy all of these objections to the full satisfaction of those who raise these objections,” he said.
Because of the companies’ control over the patented seeds, “what is meant to alleviate hunger and poverty may actually in the hands of some people become really weapons of infliction of poverty and hunger,” Cardinal Turkson said.
Previously, opponents of GM carried the burden of proving that some harm was being inflicted. Under the PP, companies that planned on introducing genetic changes into an organism would have to bear the burden of proving that it was safe.
While this might seem counter-libertarian, I would argue it is not.
1. Since changes in genetics are impossible to regulate post facto, they cannot be subject to the usual economic arguments available to libertarians. The potential devastation is so irreparable that the principle of liberty demands that the bar be raised ahead of the event.
2. Biotechnology as an industry is concentrated in so few and such large companies, that free market conditions do not prevail at all in other respects. The companies owe their position in the market to their influence on government regulations and laws, to begin with. That suggests that there will be little in the way of normal market forces to check their natural profit-seeking from turning into rent-seeking based on preferential treatment, captive markets/monopoly, and government enforcement. PP is simply a thoughtful mechanism to prevent profit from careening into plunder.
Bottom line, PP prevents looting or theft.
That makes it libertarian.
LESSONS FROM THE GREAT DEPRESSION – Lecture by Lawrence Reed, Nov. 2, 2009
Economic Liberty Lecture Series: Lawrence Reed from The Future of Freedom Foundation on Vimeo.
Bret Stephens in the Wall Street Journal adds some nuance to Naomi Klein’s black-and-white picture of Milton Friedman’s contributions to the Chilean economy, noting how prosperity and effective enforcement of building codes have protected Chilean victims of the recent earthquake from the devastation that Haiti suffered:
“In left-wing mythology—notably Naomi Klein’s tedious 2007 screed “The Shock Doctrine”—the Chicago Boys weren’t just strange bedfellows to Pinochet’s dictatorship. They were complicit in its crimes. “If the pure Chicago economic theory can be carried out in Chile only at the price of repression, should its authors feel some responsibility?” wrote New York Times columnist Anthony Lewis in October 1975. In fact, Pinochet had been mostly indifferent to the Chicago Boys’ advice until the continuing economic crisis forced him to look for some policy alternatives. In March 1975, he had a 45-minute meeting with Friedman and asked him to write a letter proposing some remedies. Friedman responded a month later with an eight-point proposal that largely mirrored the themes of the Chicago Boys.
For his trouble, Friedman would spend the rest of his life being defamed as an accomplice to evil: at his Nobel Prize ceremony the following year, he was met by protests and hecklers. Friedman himself couldn’t decide whether to be amused or annoyed by the obloquies; he later wryly noted that he had given communist dictatorships the same advice he gave Pinochet, without raising leftist hackles.
As for Chile, Pinochet appointed a succession of Chicago Boys to senior economic posts. By 1990, the year he ceded power, per capita GDP had risen by 40% (in 2005 dollars) even as Peru and Argentina stagnated. Pinochet’s democratic successors—all of them nominally left-of-center—only deepened the liberalization drive. Result: Chileans have become South America’s richest people. They have the continent’s lowest level of corruption, the lowest infant-mortality rate, and the lowest number of people living below the poverty line.
Chile also has some of the world’s strictest building codes. That makes sense for a country that straddles two massive tectonic plates. But having codes is one thing, enforcing them is another. The quality and consistency of enforcement is typically correlated to the wealth of nations. The poorer the country, the likelier people are to scrimp on rebar, or use poor quality concrete, or lie about compliance. In the Sichuan earthquake of 2008, thousands of children were buried under schools also built according to code.
In “The Shock Doctrine,” Ms. Klein titles one of her sub-chapters “The Myth of the Chilean Miracle.” In her reading, the only thing Friedman and the Chicago Boys accomplished was to “hoover wealth up to the top and shock much of the middle class out of existence.” Actual Chileans of all classes—living in the aftermath of an actual shock—may take a different view of Friedman, who helped give them the wherewithal first to survive the quake, and now to build their lives anew.”
My Comment:
Friedman, was, of course, from an Austrian perspective, far from being an ideal free-marketer. In a devastating piece, “Milton Friedman Unraveled,” (1971), Rothbard even questioned his claim to be called a free marketer of any kind, listing among many sins, his advocacy of withholding taxes and of an absolute dollar standard.
All true, no doubt. But the fact remains, even if it was only in a very constrained sense that he advocated more freedom in the markets, he did advocate it. And as the article above suggests, contra Rothbard, even a limited advocacy of market freedom is better than an outright assault on it.
Tom Woods cites Pope John Paul II on the moral basis of material prosperity:
“According to John Paul II, “The moral causes of prosperity . . . reside in a constellation of virtues: industriousness, competence, order, honesty, initiative, frugality, thrift, spirit of service, keeping one’s word, daring — in short, love for work well done. No system or social structure can resolve, as if by magic, the problem of poverty outside of these virtues.” These are precisely the virtues that the market economy fosters.
These ideas are not foreign to Catholic tradition: The Late Scholastics of the 16th and 17th centuries favored an economy very largely free of government controls, and John Paul II’s Centesimus Annus (1991) reflected an increasing appreciation for the moral and material benefits of non-coerced economic exchange.
The less heed we pay to slogans and propaganda, and the more we study the question on its merits, the more attractive does the market become.”